MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, April 26
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
8 games on the main slate on this Wednesday, and note the early 6:35 ET start time. We’ve got a few semi-aces out there tonight (Senga, Gilbert, Alcantara, Brown), but none of the deGrom/Scherzer types at the very top. That should lead to fairly condensed tournament ownership on some sketchy pitchers, which typically presents natural leverage opportunities. This slate also includes a clear-cut top stack that should lap the rest of the field in terms of popularity. After that one offense, things should be pretty spread out from an ownership standpoint.
Chalk Stack- Angels vs. Luis Medina
The A’s are currently engaged in the league’s most aggressive tank/rebuild, and they’ll throw another rookie to the mound tonight. Luis Medina was one of the prizes in last year’s Frankie Montas trade, and tonight he’ll make his MLB debut against the Angels. Medina admittedly posted some decent strikeout numbers at the lower levels – including a 27.5% K-rate at Triple-A this season – but nothing earth-shattering. Control is also going to be a problem. The right-hander has posted a double-digit walk rate in every minor-league season of his career, and he’s at 20% so far this season.
The Angels have a 5.81 implied run total tonight, and they’re the only team on this slate projected to even top 5. Medina’s projected reverse split will make the Halos’ right-handed hitters stand out the most, which means Mike Trout, Hunter Renfroe, Anthony Rendon, Brandon Drury, and Taylor Ward all grade out quite nicely. As usual, I won’t get bogged down in splits when it comes to Shohei Ohtani, who looks like the best hitting option on the entire slate at any position.
If you need to save salary in your LAA stacks, Matt Thaiss, Zach Neto, and Luis Rengifo fit the bill. Ward is affordable on FanDuel ($2,900). The issue with the 3 cheapies is they’re all groundball hitters, and Medina did show some groundball ability at the lower levels.
There are a number of ways to stack the Angels in this spot, though finding a way to pair Ohtani and Trout is obviously the preferred route. That said, they won’t fly under the radar. Ohtani and Trout are the two bats with the highest projected ownership on DraftKings, while the 6 highest-owned hitters on FD all come from the Angels, as well.
Double-digit ownership isn’t the end of the world, especially if you find a way to get different elsewhere. Without much clarity on the pitching side, it’s pretty easy to stack the chalky Angels hitters with some gross-yet-contrarian pitchers. Mini-stacking the Halos around a lower-owned full stack is another path to consider if you’re not interested in the full LAA fade. They’re in the best spot.