MLB DFS Top Stacks: Thursday, April 4th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We are typically spoiled with fun baseball Thursdays, but that’s not the case today. FanDuel’s featured slate has just 3 games starting at 4:05 ET, while DraftKings gives us the extra Royals vs. White Sox game.
Let’s dive in.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Thursday, April 4th
The “Correct” Chalk Stack – Pirates at Josiah Gray
My stance on Josiah Gray hasn’t changed since I wrote about him 5 days ago. Gray has improved a bit each year as a pro. But last week, I was worried (for his sake) about his fly-ball lean, and his xFIP ranked 14th-worst out of 127 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings last season.
Those concerns remain relevant after his 1st start of 2024 against the Reds went poorly. Gray struck out 6 batters, but he coughed up 7 earned runs on 8 hits while yielding 2 home runs. Gray had a 50% fly ball and a 50% hard-contact rate last week. Not great.
Gray will square off with a Pirates team that has made a bit of noise across the first week of the season. Left-handed batters got to Gray more last year, as he owned a .174 ISO, 50% hard-contact rate, and a 10% barrel rate against them in 2023.
While the Pirates’ projected lineup isn’t littered with left-handed hitters, the top of the order has 4 of them that can do serious damage against right-handed pitching. Dating back to last season, the lowest ISO among Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Bryan Reynolds, and Rowdy Tellez is .184. Cruz has been a different animal this season, and the other 3 sluggers are showing impressive barrel rats versus righties. Ke’Bryan Hayes has been smacking the ball dating back to Spring Training, and Henry Davis has looked as if he’s taken another leap this year.
Control has also been a constant issue for Gray, and this is a surprisingly patient Pittsburgh lineup. The RotoGrinders Top Stacks and Value tool shows Pittsburgh carrying the highest projected ownership (pOWN%) but is also tabbed with the top value and OPTO% on both sites. The tool has Pittsburgh at north of a massive 45% chance to be optimal on FanDuel and checks in at 34.68% on DraftKings. We don’t typically see numbers that high.
Sometimes, the chalk is good, and on a small slate, this seems like one of those occasions.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
