MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, April 5
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on the collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
It’s Wednesday, which means we’ve got a boatload of afternoon baseball on tap. A 9-game slate should give us plenty of opportunity to find leverage with our stacks, especially with one offense currently projecting to draw the lion’s share of the ownership.
*Chalk Stack — Rays vs. Patrick Corbin
As was the case last night against Chad Kuhl, we’re likely to see heavy ownership on the Rays’ bats this afternoon. That’s because they’ll be taking their hacks against Patrick Corbin, an aging lefty whose best pitching days are a speck in the rearview mirror. Corbin hasn’t posted a strikeout rate of 20% in a season since 2020, when he barely topped it (20.3%).
Since the beginning of last season, Tampa Bay’s projected lineup boasts a collective .330 wOBA against southpaws, with each of the top 6 hitters posting above-average marks. They’ve also struck out just 18% of the time, so the Nationals’ fielders should be awfully busy for as long as Corbin’s out there. Factor in the major park upgrade and the affordable salaries on Tampa and it’s easy to how the stack comes together today.
Corbin yielded a .388 wOBA with 24 homers to right-handed hitters alone in 2022. Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, and Wander Franco are the Rays’ 3 best right-handed sticks, while Isaac Paredes flashed major power against LHPs a season ago (.283 ISO). Even Jose Siri, who already has a couple of homers this season, projects well in this matchup despite hitting lower in the order. Christian Bethancourt and Harold Ramirez are a couple of cheap RHBs that’ll fit easily into your stacks, as well. Siri and Manuel Margot offer some stolen base upside in any matchup.
There are several different ways to stack Tampa in this spot, though the ownership will be there. 7 of the Rays’ 9 projected hitters are currently projecting for double-digit ownership on DraftKings, while 6 are topping 10% on FanDuel. Corbin did show some groundball ability against lefties (54.9%) last season, but a flyball lefty like Brandon Lowe is viable assuming lower ownership if he cracks the lineup.
The Rays are a decent offense and logical chalk in this spot, though there are 17 more teams we can stack on a full slate. With so many ways to get different, I will be keeping Tampa Bay’s hitters in my large-field tournament player pool this afternoon. I prefer them as a 3-man mini-stack if the field is going to go heavy on the full stack, however.