MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, August 16
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a manageable 8-game MLB DFS slate on tap for Wednesday night on the heels of a few afternoon games. The Coors extravaganza is one of those matinee affairs, but there’s still no shortage of offense on the main slate. The Braves, Rangers, Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, Mariners, and White Sox all have implied run totals of at least 5 as of this morning. Winds blowing out to left field at Wrigley should make that game a popular target for stacks, but there’s an awful lot to like out there tonight.
How should we stack ‘em up on a Wednesday night?
Popular Stack – Mariners vs. Alec Marsh / Royals Bullpen
The Mariners broke last night’s slate after battering poor Jordan Lyles, and they’re in an advantageous matchup again tonight. The Royals may use an opener or two, but they’re expected to deploy rookie Alec Marsh in a bulk relief role. Seattle’s 5.41 total is among the highest marks on the night, and friendly salaries around the industry should lead to some ownership.
Marsh has flashed some strikeout upside at the lower levels, but he’s been around average (22.9%) so far in his first tour of duty in the majors. He’s also had a double-digit walk rate at every level of the minors since his Double-A debut in 2021, including a 12.4% mark so far this year. Marsh has been barreled up 10.5% of the time by major-league hitters with a significantly higher flyball (46%) than groundball (31%) rate.
So far, this guy just doesn’t look like a guy that belongs at this level. It shouldn’t come as a huge surprise to see that The BAT has Marsh ranked as the worst pitcher on the slate in terms of context-neutral ERA (5.33).
The Mariners haven’t been the most dynamic offense this season in terms of hitting for power against right-handed pitching, but there’s still a lot to like. All of Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez, and Cal Raleigh have double-digit barrel rates vs. RHPs in large samples. Dylan Moore (25%) and Dominic Canzone (9.8%) have done damage in shorter samples, while Ty France has perked up in recent weeks following a grim start to the season.
Julio is the only hitter that’ll cost you much of anything on either site. None of his teammates are even over $3,000 on FanDuel, while Hernandez ($3,600) and Canzone ($2,600) are standout salary savers on DraftKings.
The M’s are projecting for decent ownership around the industry, but I wouldn’t say they’re overwhelming chalk by any means. Seattle is at 12.6% stack pOWN on DK with a 15.4% mark on FD. More important, however, is their opto%. They’re leading the slate by a huge margin on both DK (21%) and FD (18%) in terms of finishing as the optimal stack. This takes salaries into account, remember, so “optimal” doesn’t necessarily mean they’re expected to be the highest-scoring offense in terms of raw points.
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