MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, August 2
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
The Padres and Braves will both be playing during the day, which leaves us with a wide-open 8-gamer this evening. It does look as though a couple of teams will still carry the lion’s share of the stack ownership in favorable on-paper matchups, but not having to deal with Coors gives us a nice little midweek break.
How should we stack ‘em up on tonight’s 8-gamer?
Chalk Stacks – Dodgers vs. Hogan Harris, Cubs vs. Brandon Williamson
Tonight’s slate features quite a few excellent pitchers, so the offenses facing mediocre lefties look like the best stops for bats. The Dodgers against Hogan Harris and the Cubs against Brandon Williamson are both likely to pull plenty of ownership.
The Dodgers didn’t necessarily light the world on fire last night against Ken Waldichuk, but they got the job done. Harris has a strikeout rate of around 20% with an ERA north of 6, though his SIERA (4.65) shows his ERA may be a bit unlucky. He’s also allowing more flyballs than groundballs with a 9.5% walk rate.
Power hasn’t been a real issue for Harris – 7 HR allowed across 12 games – but his home park is also good for muting power. Limiting power in a matchup with the Dodgers in LA is considerably more difficult. Harris has predictably racked up a few more strikeouts against lefties, though he’s still only around average in that regard (22.2%).
All the Dodgers’ projected lineup has done this season vs. LHPs is post a collective .215 ISO with a .347 wOBA. Mookie Betts and his cartoonish .398 ISO has done most of the raking, though Freddie Freeman (.341 ISO, .447 wOBA) has no trouble with same-handed pitching. Will Smith and Chris Taylor are having terrific seasons at the plate, while LA recently added Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernandez specifically for matchups with left-handers.
LA’s stack pOWN is about 2% higher than their opto% on DK, but the numbers are close to even on FanDuel.
The Cubs draw Williamson, another rookie with middling numbers. His recent results haven’t been calamitous, but a 17.3% K-rate isn’t scaring anybody. Williamson’s walk and barrel rates are both in the 10% range, with most of the power damage coming against righties.
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