MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, August 23
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Just 6 games on the main slates tonight with plenty of afternoon baseball on the schedule. DraftKings and FanDuel have different 6-gamers, however. DraftKings’ docket starts at 7:05 ET and includes the Reds-Angels late-night hammer, while FD’s will start at 6:40 to include Rockies-Rays. The LAA/CIN clash isn’t included on FanDuel, either.
So, we’ll be doing things a bit differently on both sites. For the purposes of Top Stacks, however, I’ll only include teams we can stack on both DK and FD this evening. How should we approach the hitting side of tonight’s slate?
Chalk Stack – Braves vs. Jose Quintana
The Braves didn’t do a whole lot against Tylor Megill and friends last night, but they’re looking like the chalk option again tonight against Jose Quintana. Atlanta’s 5.54 total is pretty easily the highest on the board, and this lineup profiles to absolutely mash left-handed pitching. On the season, the projected 9 for the Braves tonight boasts a collective .374 wOBA with a .235 ISO vs. LHPs.
Quintana has solid numbers so far this year, but a quick look under the hood reveals he’s due for some regression. His 16.9% strikeout rate is his lowest since his rookie year, while his 9.5% walk rate is awfully high. Quintana’s 5.23 SIERA tells a vastly different tale than his lucky 3.03 ERA, as well.
Quintana has done an excellent job of dodging barrels. His 3.7% barrel rate is among the lowest in baseball, but we’re only talking about a 6-start sample size for him. He also allowed his first home run of the season in his last outing. Avoiding barrels won’t be easy for him tonight. Michael Harris (8.8%) and Vaughn Grissom (8%) are the only hitters in the Braves’ projected lineup with sub-10% barrel rates vs. lefties so far in 2023.
Atlanta will be reasonably popular because they’re always reasonably popular, but the hefty price tags on the most dangerous bats makes them relatively tough to stack. Ronald Acuna ($6,800 DK, $4,900 FD) projects better than any other hitter on the slate, but he’s also more expensive than a few pitchers on DK. Sean Murphy (17% barrels), Matt Olson (19%), and Austin Riley (12%) have made careers of crushing LHPs, but it won’t be easy to fit them all. We live in the world of a salary cap, as a prophet named Dean once said.
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