MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, July 19
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a classic split-slate Wednesday with a nice 8-game main slate on tap for this evening. The Coors Field extravaganza is part of the afternoon docket, so it’ll be interesting to see how the ownership shakes out on the hitting side of things tonight. We do still have some attackable spots, though there isn’t one team that stands out well above the rest from a stacking standpoint. That should make for a fun build, so let’s dive right in and find some bats, shall we?
Top Stack – Braves vs. Ryne Nelson
The Braves were one of the 12 teams to top 10 runs on last night’s wild slate, yet they were one of four such teams to still lose. Atlanta teed off on Zach Davies and friends last night, and tonight they’ll face Ryne Nelson and a gassed Arizona bullpen.
Nelson has spiked a few decent outings against weaker foes lately, but the overall numbers are uninspiring. The right-hander owns a paltry 15.8% strikeout rate on the season. The control is good (6.7% walks), but that’s the only positive I can find. Nelson’s flyball rate is higher than his groundball rate, and he’s yielded a barrel rate of over 10%. I’ll be more than happy to stack the Braves’ All-Star team against a guy with a 5.09 SIERA.
On the season, all this projected lineup has done against right-handed pitching is post a collective .219 ISO with a .362 wOBA. Those are downright gaudy numbers, and it’s helpful that Nelson’s splits are almost completely neutral. Lefties do still stand out, however. Nelson’s strikeout rate has plunged to just 13.5% against lefties alongside a hefty .378 wOBA allowed. You can make a compelling case for Matt Olson as the top overall hitter on the slate as a result, while Ozzie Albies (.235 ISO) and Michael Harris (.178) have also contributed in the power department from the left side.
The Braves are a bit heavier on righties, but it’s not like Nelson’s .332 wOBA vs. RHBs is scaring us away from them. Ronald Acuna (.425 wOBA, .247 ISO) is posting video game numbers on his way to an NL MVP trophy, while Sean Murphy (.300 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (.194) have done plenty of damage. Austin Riley has curiously seen his power decline vs. RHPs (.148 ISO) in 2023, but I think we can chalk that up to some smaller-sample noise. Riley was at .222 against same-handed pitching a season ago, and he’s still affordable relative to the other power hitters in this lineup on FanDuel ($3,400). Rookie Forrest Wall, another lefty, is projected to crack the lineup at min-salary on both DK and FD.
The Diamondbacks’ bullpen has been around the middle of the pack so far this season, but they had to deploy 5 relievers after Davies’ disastrous outing last night. We could certainly see a similar story tonight if Nelson succumbs to Atlanta’s stacked offense early.
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