MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday (July 26)
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got just a handful of games on the main slates tonight after a 12-game smorgasbord yesterday. Please note FanDuel’s main slate is a 6-gamer starting at 6:40 ET that includes the Angels-Tigers clash, though there are some weather concerns there. The DraftKings docket is a 5-gamer start at the usual 7:05. Some of the better pitchers on this slate are in difficult matchups, which means this is a slate where stacking against good pitching is squarely in play for GPPs. Viable pitching in several different price tiers also gives us plenty of unique ways to build, so let’s find ourselves some teams to stack on a Wednesday night.
Chalk Stack – Braves at Brayan Bello
We don’t have to worry about gnarly weather in Boston this evening, so we should see quite a bit more ownership on the Braves than we did last night. They do have to contend with a more difficult matchup against the solid Brayan Bello, but we’re still talking about the mighty Braves taking their hacks in the most hitter-friendly park on the board. When it comes to which team is most likely to score the most runs tonight, don’t overthink it.
The Braves’ projected lineup boasts a collective .357 wOBA, .222 ISO, and a 12.1% barrel rate so far this season against right-handed pitching. Those would be excellent numbers for any individual hitter, yet these are their averages 1-through-9. This team has hit 187 homers this season, which puts them well ahead of the second-place Dodgers (166).
Bello is far from a gas can, of course, which complicates things. The 24-year-old has come into his own this season, and he’s been particularly tough on righties. Bello has whiffed them at a 26.4% clip while keeping the ball on the ground nearly 60% of the time. Right-handed hitters have mustered a wOBA of just .270.
It’s a different story for lefties, though. Bello’s K rate declines to a paltry 14.4% against opposite-handed swingers, while his wOBA allowed climbs all the way to .354. He does still keep the ball on the ground 52% of the time, but the significantly lower strikeout rate makes him more susceptible to damage.
The discrepancies in the numbers are wide enough to put Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies at the front of the line for Braves stacks tonight, with Michael Harris and Eddie Rosario looking like the prime salary savers. Ronald Acuna hits the ball on the ground more than we’d like against righties (50.2%), but his elite combination of power and speed gives him multiple paths to success on a nightly basis. In a park built for right-handed power bats, I’ll still be looking to pay up for Acuna and Austin Riley early and often in stacks.
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