MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, July 5
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
11 games on the board for this Wednesday, though quality pitching options are few and far between. That should lead to a high-scoring slate on the offensive side of things, and we don’t have to worry about Coors. The ownership should also be fairly spread out as a result, which makes for a fun slate. There are lots of options out there from a stacking standpoint, so let’s hop right in.
Chalkish Stacks – Reds vs. Josiah Gray, Dodgers vs. Osvaldo Bido
The chalk isn’t overly chalky with 11 games on the main slate. The Reds are currently checking in with the highest stack ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, though it’s hardly overwhelming. Cincy has about 8.6% stack pOWN on DK, while they’re coming in closer to 10% on FD. The Dodgers – who draw a home date against right-hander Osvaldo Bido – are coming in at around 7% ownership around the industry.
We were able to consistently pick on Josiah Gray last season, though he’s been far more stable to begin 2023. His barrel rate has improved with each passing year since ’21 all the way down to 7.6% so far this term. He’s also allowed 12 homers through 17 starts, which isn’t necessarily a cataclysmic pace for a guy that served up 38 dongs in just 28 games a year ago.
Gray’s double-digit walk rate is still out of control, and he still isn’t generating any groundballs against left-handed hitters. The Reds won’t throw a murderer’s row of LHBs at him here, though they do project to have 5 of them in the order. Elly De La Cruz is the headliner there, as all he’s done to this point in his career is post a .436 wOBA vs. right-handers in an admittedly limited sample. TJ Friedl (.352) and Jake Fraley (.400) tend to pop against righties, while we’ve seen a solid power stroke from Joey Votto (.321 ISO) since his recent return from injury.
Gray’s been worse against righties overall, which puts Matt McLain and Jonathan India both on the short list for Reds stacks, as well. They certainly won’t come cheap these days, but they do have about a 10% chance of being the top stack on DK. They’re over 11% on FD, so we’re getting positive leverage with this semi-chalky bunch, too.
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