MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, June 14
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a dusting of afternoon baseball in store for Wednesday, but most of the action will happen tonight. We’ve got a 12-gamer on tap with a little bit of everything. A few teams are rounding back to the top of their respective rotations, while we do have a few attackable gas cans out there, too. The absence of Coors should help to keep the stack ownership fairly spread out, which should make for a fun slate. Let’s dive right in, shall we?
Chalk Stack – Red Sox vs. Austin Gomber
We may not have a Coors game, but that doesn’t mean we can’t go after a Rockies pitcher. Austin Gomber had a decent first season in Colorado back in 2021, but it’s been all downhill from there. So far this season, he’s looked worse than ever. Fenway may not be Coors, but it is the best hitter’s park on the board tonight.
Gomber’s strikeout rate has fallen completely off the face of the earth this season (14%), while his walk and barrel rates are both pushing double digits. A 5.50 SIERA may look better than a 7.57 ERA, but a 5.50 SIERA is still among the worst marks in the league for regular starters. He’s already allowed 16 homers in 13 games, and he’s been completely ineffective against hitters of either handedness.
I don’t think the Red Sox’ ownership will be too out of control on a 12-game slate, but they do still look like the most popular stack. We normally prefer to attack lefties with righties, but Gomber’s splits against same-handed bats (.482 wOBA, 5 HR allowed) look atrocious thus far. Boston’s two best hitters – Rafael Devers and Masataka Yoshida – are lefties, and they’re both squarely in play given Gomber’s woeful numbers.
The righties should be popular, and with good reason. Gomber hasn’t enjoyed much more success vs. RHBs (.397 wOBA, 11 HR). Justin Turner and Adam Duvall are the headliners here hitting in the middle of the order, while Rob Refsnyder could draw leadoff duty. Enrique Hernandez and Christian Arroyo have passable longer-term numbers against LHPs, while you can round things out with cheapies in Connor Wong and Pablo Reyes.
Boston isn’t the sexiest lineup anymore, but they’re appropriately affordable as a full stack. We’re paying premiums for Devers, Yoshida, and Duvall (DK only), but the rest of the stack is cheap. Boston’s opto% on both DraftKings and FanDuel is north of 10%, which is only slightly lower than their stack ownership. That’s slight negative leverage, but I’m not too concerned about that on a slate where it’s easy to get different elsewhere.
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