MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, June 28
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Wednesday is usually split-slate Wednesday, but not this one. We’ve got a beefer of a 13-game main slate on tap for tonight, so it likely won’t look too different than last night’s 15-game bonanza. We’ve once again got what should be a very chalky Dodgers-in-Coors situation, and LA is predictably head and shoulders above the field when it comes to raw projections. Of course, there are still plenty of ways to get different on a slate with so many options. Let’s walk through the slate together and uncover some of those alternative stacks.
Chalk Stack – Dodgers at Kyle Freeland
Despite not releasing their lineup until about an hour before the game, the Dodgers still came in as the most popular stack by a wide margin last night. A few bats were good – most notably J.D. Martinez – but the full stack certainly left plenty to be desired against Connor Seabold. Tonight, they’ll take their swings against left-hander Kyle Freeland, so the lineup should look a bit different.
Even if we’re using different names, it’s still hard to get away from this team tonight. Freeland may not be a gas can, but he’s also not good enough to scare us away. His K-rate has tailed off to just 14.6% so far on the season, while his 5.09 SIERA is the second-worst mark of his career. Freeland used to neutralize power by getting groundballs, but the GB% has tanked all the way to about 41% so far in ’23.
David Peralta and Jason Heyward seem likely to hit the bench against the left-hander, and we have Miguel Vargas and Jonny DeLuca currently projected to start instead. DeLuca ($2,700 DK, $2,600 FD) should emerge as a popular value piece with some stolen base potential, but there’s always pinch-hit risk with a guy like him.
James Outman and Miguel Rojas haven’t flashed much power vs. lefties this season, but there rest of the lineup is a sea of bright green in PlateIQ. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith all have ISOs of over .300 vs. LHPs this term, while Martinez, Vargas, and Max Muncy are all over .200.
The salaries on some of these bats will make them difficult to fully stack with premium pitching, and we don’t have quite as many appealing cheap pitchers as we did last night. LA is grading out as the most popular stack on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but the pOWN isn’t out of control by any means. They’re coming in with 11.4% stack ownership on DK with a 10.6% Opto%. The Dodgers are actually grading out as a positive stack for leverage on FD with 10.9% ownership and an 11.5% Opto%.
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