MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, May 10
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
The sites are approaching Wednesday’s schedule quite differently. DraftKings is rolling with a 9-game main afternoon slate that gets rolling at 12:35 ET. FanDuel, meanwhile, has a 6-game main slate at 6:35 ET. Here, we’ll break down the top stacks and pivots for both slates. The DK slate is rife with quality pitching, though we do have one offense projecting to eat up a lion’s share of the ownership.
Chalk DK Stack – Yankees vs. Kyle Muller
Kyle Muller was one of the prizes for the A’s in the Sean Murphy trade, but his 2023 is off to an inauspicious start. Today, he’ll have to face a healthier version of the Yankees that got Aaron Judge back into the lineup last night. New York’s 5.59 total is easily the highest on the DK slate, and it’s safe to assume the Bronx Bombers won’t fly under any radars as a result.
Muller is a left-hander that projects for a typical platoon split. Through his first 7 outings with Oakland, his walk rate (11%) is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (12.8%). To say that’s suboptimal would be an understatement. He’s been the victim of some unlucky BABIP (.361), but a barrel rate pushing 10% isn’t great, either. Muller’s 5.69 SIERA isn’t really doing his 6.62 ERA any favors. He’s really just been bad, and he’ll be taking a park downgrade today leaving the spacious Coliseum.
A rash of injuries has left the Yankee lineup a bit shorthanded, but we still have some impressive bats here. Judge (.316 ISO, .387 wOBA) is the no-brainer top option, while Anthony Rizzo (.271 ISO), Gleyber Torres (.282), and Harrison Bader (.254) have all done damage in the power department vs. LHPs since the start of last season. Anthony Volpe has poor numbers, but he’s a stolen base threat that should hit out of the leadoff spot in an exploitable spot. Saving salary with the cheap Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Oswaldo Cabrera, and/or Kyle Higashioka at the bottom of the order makes it easier to afford the big boys at the top.
A quick glance at LineupHQ shows the Yankees projected for 9.76% adjusted mean ownership on DraftKings, though they have just a 3.12% chance to be the optimal stack. That’s the second-worst differential on the slate. Only the Giants against Josiah Gray are projecting for more ownership with a worse opto%, as of now. New York is the only offense with an implied run total north of 5 runs, and this is the first game on the slate. Some lineups may not even be out by the time this game starts, so we could see even more ownership flock to the Yanks as a result. They’re likely to have 8 right-handed bats in there against the lefty, so it’s hard to argue with the appeal of the matchup.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
