MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, May 17
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got another split-slate Wednesday on tap with 7 games on the evening docket. The Coors Field game is mercifully on the afternoon slate, so we won’t have to worry about that heavy hitting chalk tonight. Without Coors, the ownership should be fairly spread out on the offensive side of things. A few aces could lead us to look for value on the hitting side, though there are a few more affordable arms in play if you’re looking to pay up for your bats. All things considered, this looks like another fun slate with several ways to build your winning lineups.
Chalk Stack – Mariners vs. Brayan Bello
Without the Reds or Rockies, we currently have the Mariners stack projected to pull the most ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Fenway is the default top hitting environment on the slate, and Seattle’s hitters will be going up against right-hander Brayan Bello. Bello is a highly-rated prospect, but he’s taken some lumps since getting the call to the major league level for the first time last season.
His ERA so far this season is sitting at 5.01, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Bello’s 3.54 SIERA is considerably better and legitimately good. What gives? The BABIP gods (.368!) haven’t been on his side, and he’s allowed 5 homers across his 5 starts on the year. The rest of Bello’s numbers are solid enough. That 22.9% strikeout rate is about average, but he’s keeping the ball on the ground at an elite 62.5% clip. Combine that with a manageable 6.7% walk rate and you’ve got a talented pitcher due for some positive regression.
Even so, this is a huge park upgrade for the Mariners. Bello can keep the ball on the ground, but his strikeout numbers drop off a bit (19%) against lefties. So, lefties that hit the ball in the air look like the priorities. Jarred Kelenic, Cal Raleigh, and Taylor Trammell fit the mold. Eugenio Suarez gets lift from the right side, but most of the other bats in the Mariners’ projected lineup have higher groundball rates than we’d like.
As of now, the Seattle stack projects to be over-owned compared to their chances of being optimal. On DK, we’ve got 14.89% mean ownership on the M’s with a 12.53% chance of being the top stack. The gap is smaller on FD (12.88% ownership, 12.06% opto), but they’re still in the red.
I’m not planting my flag with Bello as ace material just yet, but we have seen improvement with each passing start. He’s also tamed a few better lineups than the one Seattle will trot out there tonight. I’ll keep the Mariners in my GPP player pool, but there are enough alternatives out there to make an underweight approach viable tonight.
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