MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, May 24
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a classic MLB DFS split-slate Wednesday on tap, but we’re here to talk about the 8-game main slate that gets underway at 7:05 ET. While we do have a few decent pitching options, ownership appears likely to congregate around guys like Kodai Senga and Nestor Cortes. That should create some very obvious leverage opportunities, while the most talented pitcher on the board is taking the mound in Colorado. This looks like a fun slate, so let’s find some teams to stack up, shall we?
Chalk Stacks – Marlins vs. Karl Kauffmann, Padres vs. Trevor Williams
Another day, another chance for the Marlins to take their hacks in the friendly confines of Coors Field. Miami has mustered just 7 runs through the first 2 games of this series, but tonight they’ll get a shot at another gas can in Karl Kauffmann. I don’t know where the Rockies are finding these guys, but Kauffmann is a pitcher we’d be stacking against in any ballpark.
The right-hander made his MLB debut last week in Arlington against the Rangers, and things didn’t go well. He was smacked around for 5 runs on 7 hits in just 4.1 innings of work along with 4 punchouts. Kauffmann posted a weak 14.9% K-rate in 8 Triple-A outings before getting the call to the majors. The one thing he seems to do pretty well is keep the ball on the ground, but he’s not Framber Valdez in that regard, either.
Perhaps the Marlins’ weak showings to begin the week will temper their ownership a bit tonight. Miami being heavy on RHBs isn’t ideal, but Luis Arraez and Joey Wendle stand out with the platoon advantage. Jorge Soler is clearly the top power threat from the right side, while Bryan De La Cruz has the highest ISO (.197) in the projected lineup against righties since the start of 2022.
The problem, as usual, is the Marlins aren’t a particularly good offense. The projected lineup is also hitting the ball on the ground more than 48% of the time against right-handed pitching, which plays right into Kauffmann’s primary strength. Per our PlateIQ projections, Miami’s ownership greatly outweighs their chances of being the optimal stack on both DraftKings and FanDuel. They’re projecting for about 8.5% ownership on DK with a 3.7% opto%. On FanDuel, the ownership jumps to 9.7% with a 3.7% opto%.
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