MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, May 3
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
8 games on the main slate for Wednesday, including another Brewers-Rockies clash at Coors. Last night’s 5-run combined output didn’t win anybody anything, so it’ll be interesting to see if and how that affects ownership for tonight’s go-round. Tonight’s slate also features a few aces, though we don’t have a bevy of punt pitchers like we did yesterday. How should we stack ‘em up tonight?
Chalk Stack – Brewers at Kyle Freeland
Milwaukee came up small last night against Ryan Feltner and friends, but they’re leading the ownership pack again tonight in the same ballpark. This time, they’ll take their swings against lefty Kyle Freeland. Freeland used to get by on inducing soft contact and keeping the ball on the ground. His barrel rate so far this season is sitting at a manageable 6.6%, but the groundballs (39%) have fallen off a cliff. He’s yielded all 7 of his home runs this season over the span of his last 4 outings.
Freeland isn’t quite a gas can, but he’s never had a history of missing bats, either. His career-best K-rate (20.5% in 2018) was still well south of the league average, and he’s all the way down to 15.6% through 6 starts this year.
The 2023 Brewers aren’t the greatest offense in the world, but their 6.13 implied run total is still the highest on the slate. The projected lineup does include 3 heavy groundball hitters (Christian Yelich, William Contreras, Brian Anderson), but the rest of these guys hit the ball in the air with gusto. Since the beginning of 2022, all of Willy Adames, Mike Brosseau, Luke Voit, Tyrone Taylor, Owen Miller, and Joey Wiemer own flyball rates well above average against left-handed pitching. Everyone but Miller (33.6% hard hits) hits the ball hard. That includes Contreras (50%), who boasts the highest ISO (.232) on the team vs. LHPs despite all those groundballs.
The vast majority of this lineup just profiles excellently against Freeland, even without taking the best hitter’s ballpark in the majors into account. The one guy that doesn’t grade out well here is Yelich, who’s hitting the ball on the ground 70% of the time against same-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. I’d still include him in stacks assuming he occupies the leadoff spot once again, especially if his hefty salaries and the lefty-lefty matchup keep his ownership relatively in check.
As always, ownership is the sticking point. Everybody but Wiemer in the projected lineup is projecting for double-digit ownership, which is more meaningful on an 8-game slate than it was on last night’s 12-gamer. It was easier to find alternatives to the Brewers last night. Given the way the numbers shake out in Milwaukee’s favor, though, I’m inclined to eat some of this chalk and try to find a way to get different elsewhere.
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