MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, May 31
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got another split-slate Wednesday on tap, but we’re here to talk about the main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel that get underway this evening. Take note that the FD slate is a 7-gamer starting at 6:40 ET, while DK’s is a 6-gamer starting about a half-hour later. How should we stack up our bats tonight?
*Chalk Stack – Red Sox vs. Luke Weaver
It took a while for the Red Sox to come around in a smash spot last night, but they would up with 8 runs in an eventual loss. Tonight, Boston’s bats are shaping up to be chalky again when they welcome Luke Weaver to Fenway. The Sox have a 5.88 implied run total in this one, which is the highest on the board.
You can play any offense at Fenway, which is easily the most hitter-friendly park on the main slate. That said, the massive projected ownership on the BoSox bats is at least a little surprising. Weaver’s bounced around and dealt with some injuries over the years, and his 5.45 ERA on the year is what it is. The underlying numbers, however, aren’t so bad.
Weaver’s 4.04 SIERA is perfectly fine, and a 22.6% K-rate is adequate enough. We saw him dominate the Cardinals in his last outing, though the Cardinals are probably the most enigmatic offense in the sport this year. Weaver isn’t walking anyone (5.5%), and he’s been a bit unlucky on the BABIP front (.318).
The issue is he’s not doing a great job of dodging barrels. That 12.9% barrel rate on the year is problematic, and he’s been taken deep 8 times in 7 games. Weaver’s splits are tough to parse, though. He’s yielded an unsightly .419 wOBA to LHBs this season, but he’s also striking them out at a 26.4% clip. Compare that to his 17.8% K-rate to RHBs and a .306 wOBA allowed and it’s hard to draw definitive conclusions either way.
Boston is a lefty-heavy lineup. We have 7 of them in the projected lineup tonight, with Justin Turner and Enrique Hernandez being the exceptions. The Red Sox as a whole haven’t hit for much power against right-handed pitching (.140 ISO), but Turner (.250 ISO) and Rafael Devers (.319) have fared well individually. With this stack, we’re really just playing for the ballpark and hoping Weaver will turn in a dud after his gem the last time out.
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