MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, September 11th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
The Twins ended up going off without Royce Lewis! But Tuesday was fairly disappointing if you backed the Astros. Today is a new day, so let’s dive in and figure out if they’re worth going back to.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, September 11th
OPTO & CHALKY STACK
Astros vs. Joey Estes
Our Top Stacks Tool currently has Houston projected with the highest Opto% at the highest pOWN%. It’s understandable, as opposing pitcher Joey Estes has struck out just 18% of hitters while allowing a decent clip of fly balls and barrels.
A healthy Kyle Tucker gives the Astros more of a ceiling but also makes the stack more expensive. The Astros rank 7th in wRC+ vs. RHP across the last 4 weeks, and I’d imagine Tucker could help that trend continue.
I’m not usually a huge home/road guy, but The Coliseum is one of the worst parks in the league for hitting home runs, and the Astros rank 9th in that regard, according to Savant. Estes has a much higher HR/FB% on the road than at home, and his road ERA is jacked up to 6.66. I’d be much less interested if this game was in Oakland.
Last night, the Astros (unfortunately) hit a ton of fly-ball outs against JP Sears. Estes might not get so lucky. At a minimum, I like the Houston power bats and mini stacks. Estes is throwing roughly 50% of 4-seam fastballs to lefties, so hello, Mr. Tucker! Across 64 plate appearances this season, Tucker owns a massive .457 ISO vs. RHP 4-seamers, a whopping 21% barrel rate, and a ridiculously unsustainable 64% fly-ball rate against them. Tucker’s odds are currently as low at +250 on bet365 to homer, which is a nice indicator when Vegas is on your side.
Jon Singleton has also been mashing over the last 30 days, with a 20% barrel rate vs. RHP – and he’s cheap. If you want to stack these lefties and mix in righty or two, I’m with it. It should go without saying that I am including Yordan Alvarez in that group.
At a minimum, I’m turning to the Houston lefties this evening.
REGRESSION IS COMING STACK
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