MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, September 13
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Wednesday brings a few afternoon games, but it’s worth noting DraftKings and FanDuel are offering different main slates. FanDuel is opting for a 10-gamer starting at 6:35 ET, while DK has just 7 games starting at 7:07. FanDuel is also excluding the late-night Padres-Dodgers game. The big difference there is FD will include the Braves and Orioles, both of whom have implied run totals north of 5.
For the purposes of this article, though, I’ll focus on the 7 games both sites have in common. The Coors Field extravaganza is a matinee affair, which should result in stack ownership being fairly spread out this evening. How should we be stacking tonight? Let’s dive right in.
Chalk Stack – White Sox vs. Steven Cruz / Alec Marsh
As of now, our PlateIQ projections have the White Sox – yes, the White Sox – pulling the most ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Sox will take their swings in their homer-friendly home ballpark against opener Steven Cruz and projected bulk reliever Alec Marsh.
Marsh has some strikeout stuff (25.3%), but the red flags may outweigh the positives. Marsh’s walk and barrel rates are both in the double digits, and he’s shown no groundball ability whatsoever (31.6%) at the MLB level. That said, his 4.50 SIERA suggests he’s unlucky to have a 5.93 ERA to this point. Based on that, Marsh should see some positive regression from a run prevention standpoint.
I’ll gladly fire up Luis Robert (.362 wOBA, .283 ISO) against any mere mortal, but I’d be nervous about stacking the rest of this lineup as chalk. Tim Anderson and Andrew Benintendi are projected to hit 1 and 2 in the order, yet both have ISOs of under .100 so far this season vs. right-handed pitching. Eloy Jimenez and Andrew Vaughn would be next on the wish list behind Robert, while Yoan Moncada has quietly shown some signs of coming around over the past week or so.
Robert and Lenyn Sosa are the only hitters in the projected lineup with barrel rates of over 10% vs. RHPs on the year.
The salaries are also useful. Anderson, Vaughn, Sosa, Gavin Sheets, and Korey Lee are all affordable around the industry, so you can essentially get to whatever else you want if you stack the Sox. Chicago does have a fairly healthy 9.61% opto% on DraftKings, but that still pales in comparison to their 15% stack pOWN. The gulf is smaller on FD, but we’re still getting negative leverage here with 13% projected stack ownership next to a 7.3% opto%.
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