MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, September 20

Taylr Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!

MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.

In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.

We’ve got a bear of an early slate on DraftKings today with 9 games spanning from 12:20 to 4:10 ET. We almost surely won’t have all of the lineups in before the first game locks, so we may have to do some late swapping. It’ll be good practice with NBA starting in about a month, anyway. FanDuel decided to break up their early slates, which means this Top Stacks piece will be focused on the aforementioned DraftKings docket.

Chalk Stacks – Guardians at Zack Greinke

For the second straight day, we’re looking at the Guardians as something resembling chalk. The current projections don’t have Cleveland coming in with overwhelmingly high stack ownership, but they’re affordable and facing an attackable matchup with old man Zack Greinke.

I never feel too confident in an offense as weak as this one as chalk, but there’s merit to it. The 39-year-old right-hander has a 15.7% strikeout rate on the year, and we know Cleveland is a high-contact lineup to begin with. Greinke’s 4.61 ERA isn’t quite as ugly as his 5.39 ERA, while he’s been barreled up about 8% of the time thus far. These aren’t atrocious numbers, but we have seen Greinke serve up 25 homers on the year, too.

Cleveland’s 4.93 total is among the highest on the board, and Greinke’s numbers this season are particularly awful against lefties (.394 wOBA, 14 HR, 12.7% Ks). Today, he’s projected to face 7 of them, so it’s a rough spot on paper. Gabriel Arias and Ramon Laureano are the only RHBs in the Guardians’ projected lineup. Interestingly enough, Laureano (10.1%) and Arias (9.5%) lead the way in barrel rate vs. RHPs. This offense is clearly headlined by Jose Ramirez (.364 wOBA, .188 ISO) and various Naylors, however. Bo Josh and Bo have ISOs in the .200 range, while Josh’s barrel rate (8.8%) is the highest on the team among lefties.

Andres Gimenez is a solid way to fill that pesky second base spot, while you can save salary with Steven Kwan and Kole Calhoun projected to hit first and fourth, respectively. As of now, the Guardians are pulling about 11% stack pOWN on DK compared to a 10.4% opto%.

Co-Chalk Stack – Padres vs. Chase Anderson

The Padres actually project for slightly more stack ownership (11.9%) than the Guardians do, but this is the last game on the slate starting at 4:10 ET. San Diego is in a good spot of their own at home against Chase Anderson, but it’ll be interesting to see how the ownership actually comes in. If we don’t get the lineup until well after the slate locks, some would-be Padres stackers could get impatient and pivot. I don’t expect the Padres to come in unowned as a result, but that could play a role in cutting into some of that expected popularity.

Anderson has been a weak pitcher for several years, and so far this year he’s got an ERA of 6.00 alongside a 17.3% strikeout rate. His walk and barrel rates are both pushing 9%, though he gets quite a park upgrade trading Coors Field for Petco this afternoon. Anderson has a long history of being a reverse-split right-hander. The splits aren’t too egregious anymore, but we have seen more Ks against lefties (21%) than righties (14%).

The Padres are still healthy at the top of the order, of course. I’ll gladly play Juan Soto against any mortal right-hander regardless of that pitcher’s splits, but the matchup with Anderson bodes well for Fernando Tatis, Xander Bogaerts, and Manny Machado, too. The Pads have gotten awfully cheap at the bottom of the order, as well, with Matthew Batten, Eguy Rosario, and Trent Grisham all coming in south of $3,000 on DraftKings.

Catcher is an offensive black hole of a position for most teams, but Luis Campusano has hit for some power (.153 ISO) and he’s hitting in the heart of the order these days. Jurickson Profar is another cheapie to consider assuming he cracks the lineup. As of now, out PlateIQ projections prefer the Guardians, as San Diego’s opto% (7.2%) is lagging behind their projected ownership.

Lower-Owned Stack – Red Sox at Jon Gray

The Rangers have fallen on hard times of late, particularly on the pitching side of things. Jon Gray has decent enough overall numbers this season, but his ERA through 3 starts this month is well over 7.00. He hasn’t necessarily faced the stiffest competition, either, with his last two outings coming against Oakland and Cleveland.

Gray’s a pretty average source of strikeouts at this point (21.5%) along with borderline control (8.5% walks). He’s also yielded 19 homers on the season, while lefties (.333 wOBA, 14 HR) have done the vast majority of the damage. Boston’s lineup isn’t quite as potent from the left side anymore now that Triston Casas is done for the year, but the Sox will still have 4 LHBs in the lineup this afternoon.

Rafael Devers (.251 ISO, .380 wOBA) is the obvious top option here, while Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida have posted decent enough numbers. Gray’s been able to generate more groundballs against same-handed hitters, but the Red Sox aren’t a team that hits the ball on the ground all that often. All of Trevor Story, Justin Turner, Adam Duvall, and Bobby Dalbec have higher line drive and flyball rates against RHPs so far in 2023.

Boston’s 4.09 implied run total doesn’t stand out at all, and we’re currently projecting just 4.3% stack pOWN for this team. Their 6.8% opto% is nearly as high as that of the Padres, yet you’ll get a significant ownership discount on these Red Sox bats.

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