MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, September 27
Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Last night was a wild ride, with a few different teams topping 10 runs and the Twins hitting their nightly grand slam. Tonight, we’ve got 9 games on the board, and the Dodgers-Rockies clash at Coors Field is present on both DraftKings and FanDuel. As usual, we can safely assume LA will come in as heavy chalk in the best hitting environment of them all, but they’re hardly the only quality offense in a favorable spot. How should we stack ‘em up on a Wednesday night?
Chalk Stack – Dodgers at Noah Davis
We don’t have a doubleheader to contend with today, which means we should get the lineups well in advance of lock. Tonight, the boys in blue will take their hacks against right-hander Noah Davis. We’ve only seen Davis 7 times at the big-league level so far this season, but he has an ERA pushing 9.00 with a SIERA just over 5.00. Davis’ walk rate is up over 10%, while he’s not striking anybody out (17.7%).
He does have a groundball rate of nearly 50% on the year, and keeping the ball on the ground is likely his safest path to success in this spot. Of course, there’s still no real reason to believe Davis is going to really shut down this lineup and its slate-best 7.5 implied run total. All the Dodgers’ projected lineup has done vs. right-handed pitching this season is post a collective .207 ISO with a .355 wOBA and a 10.6% barrel rate. Seems good.
The only question is whether we can actually afford them. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, JD Martinez, and Will Smith is as awesome a 5-man stack as you can cobble together tonight, but it’ll cost you $30,300 in total on DraftKings. You’re going to have to hold your nose and make some questionable dives on the pitching side in order to make that happen, though it is technically doable.
Davis has been particularly poor against lefties early in his career (.458 wOBA, 40% groundballs, 13% walks), and we can expect James Outman, David Peralta, and Jason Heyward to crack the lineup here. Outman is fairly safe overall, though Peralta and Heyward bring more pinch-hit risk later in the game.
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