MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, September 27

Taylor Smith walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!

MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.

In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.

Last night was a wild ride, with a few different teams topping 10 runs and the Twins hitting their nightly grand slam. Tonight, we’ve got 9 games on the board, and the Dodgers-Rockies clash at Coors Field is present on both DraftKings and FanDuel. As usual, we can safely assume LA will come in as heavy chalk in the best hitting environment of them all, but they’re hardly the only quality offense in a favorable spot. How should we stack ‘em up on a Wednesday night?

Chalk Stack – Dodgers at Noah Davis

We don’t have a doubleheader to contend with today, which means we should get the lineups well in advance of lock. Tonight, the boys in blue will take their hacks against right-hander Noah Davis. We’ve only seen Davis 7 times at the big-league level so far this season, but he has an ERA pushing 9.00 with a SIERA just over 5.00. Davis’ walk rate is up over 10%, while he’s not striking anybody out (17.7%).

He does have a groundball rate of nearly 50% on the year, and keeping the ball on the ground is likely his safest path to success in this spot. Of course, there’s still no real reason to believe Davis is going to really shut down this lineup and its slate-best 7.5 implied run total. All the Dodgers’ projected lineup has done vs. right-handed pitching this season is post a collective .207 ISO with a .355 wOBA and a 10.6% barrel rate. Seems good.

The only question is whether we can actually afford them. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, JD Martinez, and Will Smith is as awesome a 5-man stack as you can cobble together tonight, but it’ll cost you $30,300 in total on DraftKings. You’re going to have to hold your nose and make some questionable dives on the pitching side in order to make that happen, though it is technically doable.

Davis has been particularly poor against lefties early in his career (.458 wOBA, 40% groundballs, 13% walks), and we can expect James Outman, David Peralta, and Jason Heyward to crack the lineup here. Outman is fairly safe overall, though Peralta and Heyward bring more pinch-hit risk later in the game.

LA projects for the most ownership, but there’s a chance the full stack will go a little under-owned in GPPs. Outman, Betts, and Muncy are projecting for north of 20% ownership on FanDuel, but there isn’t a hitter in the lineup cracking 20% pOWN on DK, as of this writing. Fading the expensive pitching is a scary notion on this slate, so I’d expect much of the field to pay up for that “safety” instead.

Pivot Stack – Cubs at Darius Vines

Those wanting to pay up for the Dodgers may have to resort to giving Darius Vines ($6,400 DK) a whirl in tournaments. He’s cheap, and we’ll need someone cheap in order to stack LA. Vines will toe the rubber for the Braves tonight at home against the visiting Cubs, and we currently have him projecting for about 17% ownership on DK.

Vines spiked some decent strikeout numbers at the lower levels, but he’s at just 15% through 4 games in the majors. His 5.14 SIERA suggests his 4.40 ERA is a little on the lucky side. His good change-up should help him to neutralize lefties, which is why he projects for a wide reverse right-handed platoon split.

The Cubs’ 4.3 implied run total here certainly does not jump off the page, but we’re getting some leverage stacking them if Vines is going to be somewhat popular. Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, and Christopher Morel will hit from the preferred side of the plate, and all 3 have double-digit barrel rates this season vs. RHPs. Nico Hoerner isn’t a source of power, but he’ll be putting the ball in play and helping you to occupy that shallow second base spot.

I’m not too scared to fire up Cody Bellinger, Mike Tauchman, or Ian Happ here from the left side in stacks despite Vines’ projected split, either. Tauchman ($3,500 DK, $2,800 FD) is projected to be the most popular Cubs bat, but that’s not really saying much (5% DK, 11% FD).

The Cubs aren’t a direct pivot from the Dodgers given their cheaper salaries on aggregate, but we’re obviously getting a massive ownership discount. Chicago’s projected stack ownership (4.1%) is about in line with their opto% on FanDuel (4.9%). Their 4.6% opto% on DK is quite a bit higher than their stack pOWN (2.9%).

Hammer Stack – Rangers at Griffin Canning

Another affordable pitcher projecting for some ownership is the Angels’ Griffin Canning, who’s coming in around 15% pOWN on DraftKings at $8,300. Canning is a decent enough pitcher – especially by the Angels’ standards – and the savings matter quite a bit on this slate.

Of course, his matchup at home against Texas is a tough one. This is a park upgrade for the Rangers, and this lineup has been consistently slugging all season against right-handed pitching (.251 ISO, .381 wOBA). Canning is another reverse-split righty, as evidenced by his .344 wOBA and 15 home runs allowed vs. right-handed bats on the year. Conversely, he’s held lefties to a sub-.300 wOBA with just 6 dingers.

Corey Seager left last night’s game early with a forearm injury, so we’ll see if he’s in there tonight. I’ll gladly fire him up in stacks regardless of Canning’s split given the way he’s absolutely raked this season (.455 wOBA, .351 ISO). If he’s out, the Texas stack as a whole gets more affordable. Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Josh Jung, and Mitch Garver are the headlining power bats on the right side against Canning.

If you’re in need of savings, Evan Carter, Leody Taveras, and Jonah Heim come in handy. Seager’s absence could lead to a start at shortstop for Josh Smith, who’s just $2,300 on DK and $2,100 on FD.

Our PlateIQ projections love the Rangers in this spot, and it’s hard to disagree. They’re coming in with around 7% projected stack ownership on FanDuel with an opto rate of nearly 12%. We’re seeing a similar story on DK (7.5% pOWN, 11.5% opto).

Good luck!

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