MLB Expert Picks Preview: Friday, April 10th
Every day when the MLB schedule features four or more games, you can find expert picks for the day’s games on FanDuel below. These expert picks will provide a solid foundation for your lineups, and will include analysis and insight you can use in any sort of contest. You can expect these picks and analysis to be posted every day by 2 PM Eastern, or 10 AM for early slates.
Friday, April 10
STARTING PITCHERS
Gio Gonzalez – $9,400 – This is a really tough day to find a starting pitcher. Gonzalez is the only pitcher on the board with a long track record of success with strikeouts. He strikes out a batter per inning and has a very favorable matchup against a Phillies team with weak right-handed hitting options. The only concern here is the weather, but if this game is going to get in, Gio is the top play on the board today.
Taijuan Walker – $7,400 – The “safe” options today are neither exciting nor particularly safe, so I have no problem taking a shot on an upside arm like Walker in a tournament. Walker is an elite prospect who grabbed a rotation spot with a big spring. He has just 53 innings of major league experience, so there is plenty of risk here, but he’s likely to have some big games this season, with some bumps in the road mixed in.
John Lackey – $7,800 – Here is one of the boring, “safe” pitchers I’m talking about. Recommending Lackey shows how rough today’s pitching slate is. Lackey maintains an average strikeout rate, with an excellent walk rate which helps limit his downside. Ideally, you would only use Lackey in home starts, but a matchup with Jason Marquis makes him one of the bigger favorites on the day, even in a tough ballpark. Lackey is not a tournament play, as I’d rather take a chance on younger, upside arms, but if you can’t fit Gio Gonzalez in a cash game, he is worth a look.
Early Game Targets – Derek Holland, Collin McHugh
CATCHER
Jonathan Lucroy – $3,500 – Milwaukee right-handed batters should feast off of Jeff Locke today. Lucroy is better than a .300 hitter against lefties with a .367 wOBA and has been hitting second in the lineup. Easily the top catcher tonight and his salary is not prohibitive.
Salvador Perez – $3,500 – I prefer Lucroy at the same price, but if you want to pivot or diversify in your tournament lineups, Perez also has a good matchup tonight facing Hector Santiago. Santiago is a bit of a boom or bust pitcher who has trouble pitching deep into games. Perez has an elite contact rate against lefties which should allow him to get some good swings tonight.
Early Game Targets – Wilin Rosario, Victor Martinez
FIRST BASE
Adrian Gonzalez – $5,300 – Gonzalez’s salary has shot up with his hot start to the season, but if you’re going to pay up for a batter tonight, this is an easy choice. In case you’ve missed it, he has started this season 10-13 with 5 HR. Adding to the hot start, the Dodgers travel to Arizona to play in one of the friendliest hitters parks in the league. Gonzalez is an elite hitter against RHP, coming off a 2014 season where he had a .384 wOBA against righties.
David Ortiz – $3,700 – For the second straight year, Nate Eovaldi is a popular sleeper pitcher, but to this point he has not been able to solve left-handed batters. Moving to Yankee Stadium is not going to help that problem with the short right field porch. The ageless Ortiz continues to hit in the middle of a high powered offense and is priced well below the top echelon of first basemen. Ortiz is averaging a HR every 14 at-bats against RHP over the last two seasons.
Early Game Targets – Jose Abreu, Miguel Cabrera
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