MLB First Look: Friday, August 15th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#7 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
Fantasy Dud of the Night
Yoenis Cespedes (vs. Scott Feldman): It was a big night for the Red Sox offense, but not a big night for Cespedes. He was riding an 8 game hitting streak and he ended up going 0/5 with a run. Not nearly enough production to pay off his expensive salary.
Friday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:05 PM | Pittsburgh | Washington | Morton (5-11) – 3.62 ERA | Roark (11-7) – 2.86 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Baltimore | Cleveland | Chen (12-4) – 3.90 ERA | Kluber (13-6) – 2.46 ERA |
| 7:08 PM | Seattle | Detroit | Paxton (2-0) – 2.38 ERA | Porcello (13-7) – 3.11 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Chi. Cubs | N.Y. Mets | Wood (7-9) – 4.86 ERA | Wheeler (7-8) – 3.53 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Arizona | Miami | Cahill (2-8) – 4.86 ERA | Hand (2-4) – 4.65 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | N.Y. Yankees | Tampa Bay | McCarthy (7-11) – 4.31 ERA | Cobb (7-6) – 3.41 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Houston | Boston | Keuchel (10-8) – 3.07 ERA | Buchholz (5-7) – 5.99 ERA |
| 7:35 PM | Oakland | Atlanta | Hammel (9-9) – 3.60 ERA | Wood (8-9) – 3.08 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | L.A. Angels | Texas | Richards (12-4) – 2.54 ERA | Martinez (2-8) – 5.22 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Toronto | Chi. White Sox | Stroman (7-3) – 3.34 ERA | Noesi (6-8) – 4.67 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Kansas City | Minnesota | Duffy (7-10) – 2.57 ERA | Nolasco (5-7) – 5.90 ERA |
| 8:15 PM | San Diego | St. Louis | Ross (11-10) – 2.63 ERA | Lynn (12-8) – 2.97 ERA |
| 8:40 PM | Cincinnati | Colorado | Cueto (14-6) – 2.05 ERA | Morales (5-6) – 4.97 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Milwaukee | L.A. Dodgers | Nelson (2-3) – 4.00 ERA | Greinke (12-8) – 2.84 ERA |
| 10:15 PM | Philadelphia | San Francisco | Hamels (6-6) – 2.37 ERA | Bumgarner (13-9) – 3.22 ERA |
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Madison Bumgarner (vs. Philadelphia Phillies): Bumgarner is my top target on Friday night. Bumgarner owns a 3.22 ERA on the season while averaging 8.8 strikeouts per 9 innings. He’s facing a Phillies offense that is ranked 23rd against LH pitching this season while striking out at a 21% clip.
Lance Lynn (vs. San Diego Padres): Even despite a recent offensive surge, the Padres are still ranked dead last in almost every offensive category this season. Lynn owns a 2.64 ERA at home with 64 K’s over 83 innings of work. He’s a sizable favorite and makes a terrific play as a #2 starter.
Zack Wheeler (vs. Chicago Cubs): Since the start of July, Wheeler has had an ERA just over 2.00. He’s always been able to strike batters out and now he’s learning to be a solid all-around pitcher. He draws a terrific matchup against the Cubs who are ranked 28th against RH pitching and strike out at one of the highest rates in all of baseball.
2) Two Offenses to Target
Detroit Tigers (vs. James Paxton): This will only be Paxton’s 9th start of his career. While he has pitched well at the major-league level, he will have his hands full with a Tigers offense that is ranked 2nd against LH pitching and 2nd in wOBA at home. The Tigers RH batters make terrific targets on Friday night.
Cincinnati Reds (vs. Franklin Morales): Call me crazy, but I like to target hitters in Coors Field. It’s the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball and is a great ballpark for HR’s as well as doubles and triples with the massive gaps in the outfield. Morales has not pitched well this season and has been awful against RH hitters. All of the RH bats on the Reds are in play here.
3) wOBA vs. BvP
Round 13 (Wednesday, August 12th): Team wOBA is on a roll. Evan Longoria had a big night in Rangers Ballpark as he easily scored more fantasy points than Jonathan Lucroy. Team wOBA climbs within 1.
Scoreboard: BvP 7 – wOBA 6
Friday’s Matchup:
Buster Posey (vs. Cole Hamels): The sample size isn’t huge, but Posey has had Hamels’ number in the past. He has gone 8/14 with 5 XBH’s against him.
David Wright (vs. Travis Wood): In terms of handedness, it’s hard to find a better matchup than this one. Wright owns a .425 wOBA against LH pitching this season and Wood has given up a .364 wOBA to RH hitters.
4) He’s on Fire!
Adrian Gonzalez (vs. Jimmy Nelson): Gonzalez has been swinging a hot bat. Over his last 8 games, he has 17 hits (6 XBH’s) with 6 multi-hit games during that stretch. When he’s locked in, there are few hitters in baseball that are better against RH pitching.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
Devin Mesoraco (vs. Franklin Morales): Mesoraco has terrific power against both LH and RH pitching. I’ve already mentioned above that the Reds are one of my favorite offenses to target on Friday night. Morales has given up 16 HR’s to RH hitters this season in addition to a .400 wOBA to righties.