MLB First Look: Monday, August 11th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#7 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
Hey Grinders, I hope you all had a great weekend. Sunday was a terrific day of sports. We saw Rory McIlroy win his 3rd straight event (2nd straight major) with his victory at the PGA Championship. We saw a crazy 19 innings of baseball in Toronto where the Tigers and Blue Jays combined for 10 runs in the first 9 innings before going scoreless for the next 7. Both teams are on the schedule on Monday and both bullpens will be extremely thin. Keep that in mind when making your lineups. We also saw a double-dong from Devin Mesoraco (both of which came off of Brad Hand). I had him in my main FanDuel lineup so I certainly wasn’t complaining.
Monday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:05 PM | N.Y. Mets | Philadelphia | Niese (5-8) – 3.51 ERA | Buchanan (6-5) – 4.39 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | N.Y. Yankees | Baltimore | Capuano (1-2) – 3.91 ERA | Norris (9-7) – 3.68 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Detroit | Pittsburgh | Verlander (10-10) – 4.57 ERA | Locke (3-3) – 3.78 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | L.A. Dodgers | Atlanta | Correia (5-13) – 4.94 ERA | Teheran (10-8) – 2.92 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | St. Louis | Miami | Miller (8-8) – 3.99 ERA | Koehler (7-9) – 3.80 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | Milwaukee | Chi. Cubs | Gallardo (6-6) – 3.54 ERA | Arrieta (6-3) – 2.80 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | Tampa Bay | Texas | Smyly (6-10) – 3.98 ERA | Lewis (8-8) – 5.50 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Minnesota | Houston | Milone (6-3) – 3.55 ERA | Peacock (3-8) – 5.44 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Oakland | Kansas City | Gray (12-5) – 2.87 ERA | Ventura (9-8) – 3.47 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Toronto | Seattle | Hutchison (8-9) – 4.39 ERA | Hernandez (12-3) – 1.97 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Colorado | San Diego | Lyles (6-1) – 3.72 ERA | Hahn (7-3) – 2.28 ERA |
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Felix Hernandez (vs. Toronto Blue Jays): The Blue Jays are one of the better hitting teams in baseball against RH pitching, but those numbers are skewed by half of their games being played in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Monday’s game against King Felix will be played in a much more pitcher-friendly Safeco Field. King Felix is the top ace on the mound tonight and should add to his already terrific 2014 campaign. If you can afford him, use him as your #1 pitcher.
Jake Arrieta (vs. Milwaukee Brewers): Arrieta is coming off of his worst outing of the season. He gave up 9 earned runs over 5 innings of work in his last start, but I’m going to give him a pass because he was facing the Rockies in Coors Field. As long as the wind isn’t blowing out in Wrigley, he should get back on track Monday against the Brewers. Arrieta owns a 1.85 ERA at home this season and has held RH hitters to a .230 wOBA which should help him against a RH-heavy Brewers offense.
Jesse Hahn (vs. Colorado Rockies): Hahn is having a terrific rookie season. He owns a 2.28 ERA and is striking out close to one batter per inning. He gets to face the Rockies in the best pitcher’s park in all of baseball, Petco Park. The Rockies offensive production is largely inflated by Coors Field and it really shows when you look at their road splits. They are ranked 27th in wOBA on the road this season.
2) Two Offenses to Target
Tampa Bay Rays (vs. Colby Lewis): Lewis pitched a gem in his last outing, but I’m still not a believer. He still owns one of the highest ERA’s in all of baseball and will be pitching in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park where he has a 7.62 ERA on the season. The Rays come cheap and allow you to afford an ace such as King Felix.
Baltimore Orioles (vs. Chris Capuano): Capuano also pitched well in his last start, but again, he’s an average lefty at this stage in his career. Tonight he has to face the tough Orioles offense in Camden Yards. All of the RH hitters in this lineup are in play as well as Nick Markakis who has actually hit LH pitching well this season.
3) wOBA vs. BvP
Round 10 (Friday, August 8th): Freddie Freeman (BvP) and Michael Brantley (wOBA) both had terrific outings, but Freeman’s HR ended up being the difference. Score another point for the BvP side.
Scoreboard: BvP 6 – wOBA 4
Monday’s Matchup:
Garrett Jones (BvP Play of the Day): There weren’t any standout options for the BvP Play of the Day, but Jones takes the honors as he has put up excellent numbers against Shelby Miller in the past. The sample size is small, but Jones is 7/13 with 4 XBH’s off of Miller in his career.
Adam Rosales (wOBA Play of the Day): Rosales has not only been swinging a hot bat recently, but he also draws a terrific matchup in terms of handedness. Rosales has a .408 wOBA against LH pitching this season and gets to face Drew Smyly who has given up a .385 wOBA to RH hitters.
4) He’s on Fire!
J.J. Hardy (vs. Chris Capuano): Hardy has been red hot over his last 10 games. He’s gone 14/37 with 5 XBH’s during that stretch. He draws a very favorable matchup against Capuano in the hitter friendly confines of Camden Yards.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
Lucas Duda (vs. David Buchanan): Duda is ranked #6 in the HR Predictor in the RotoGrinders Daily Research Console. He has 19 HR’s off of RH pitching this season and gets to face a very young RH pitcher in Buchanan who has already given up 9 HR’s in his first 11 career starts. Duda also sees a ballpark boost with this game being played in Citizens Bank Park which has given up the 6th most HR’s of any ballpark this season.