MLB First Look: Monday, August 18th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#7 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
Fantasy Duds of the Night
Derek Norris & Jonny Gomes (vs. Alex Wood): Despite a pretty favorable matchup for Norris and Gomes against the lefty Alex Wood, they combined to go 0/7 with 2 strikeouts. Both were fairly popular plays and both ended going with goose eggs. Norris left 4 runners on base too which makes him the bigger dud.
Monday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:10 PM | Chi. Cubs | N.Y. Mets | Hendricks (4-1) – 1.73 ERA | Torres (5-5) – 3.68 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Seattle | Philadelphia | Elias (9-9) – 4.14 ERA | Williams (2-5) – 6.43 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Atlanta | Pittsburgh | Santana (12-6) – 3.66 ERA | Worley (5-2) – 2.51 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Arizona | Washington | Nuno (2-8) – 4.92 ERA | Zimmermann (8-5) – 2.92 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | L.A. Angels | Boston | Wilson (9-8) – 4.71 ERA | Workman (1-6) – 4.45 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Baltimore | Chi. White Sox | Norris (10-7) – 3.75 ERA | Sale (10-2) – 2.01 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Kansas City | Minnesota | Vargas (9-5) – 3.27 ERA | May (0-1) – 12.46 ERA |
| 8:15 PM | Cincinnati | St. Louis | Leake (9-11) – 3.59 ERA | Masterson (6-7) – 5.58 ERA |
NOTE – Bartolo Colon has been scratched from tonights start. He will be replaced by Carlos Torres
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Chris Sale (vs. Baltimore Orioles): After two subpar starts by his standards, Sale bounced back in a big way against the Giants. He struck out 12 batters without giving up any runs over 8 strong innings of work. He owns a 2.01 ERA on the season with a K/9 of 10.4. Even though the Orioles have a few bats that hit LH pitching well, Sale is the top pitching option on the mound Monday night.
Jordan Zimmermann (vs. Arizona Diamondbacks): Zimmermann is one of the few aces around the league that doesn’t get enough credit. He owns an ERA just under 3.00 this season with a K/9 of 8.1. He walks very few batters and rarely gives up HR’s. He draws a nice matchup on Monday against a depleted D-Backs offense that is below average against RH pitching this season.
Bartolo Colon (vs. Chicago Cubs): Colon has really pitched well at Citi Field this season. He owns a 3.04 ERA at home with 71 K’s over 77 innings of work. He draws a nice matchup against the Cubs who are ranked 29th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Colon is cheap and makes a terrific #2 option to pair with Sale or Zimmermann on multi-pitcher sites.
2) Two Offenses to Target
L.A. Angels (vs. Brandon Workman): The Angels are my favorite offense to target on Monday night. Not only are they are one the better hitting teams against RH pitching this season, but they get to face an average righty in a hitter-friendly ballpark. I’m expecting the Halo’s to have a big night offensively.
Seattle Mariners (vs. Jerome Williams): The Mariners offense is finally starting to come around, at least against RH pitching. They should be able to keep things going against Williams who has a 6.43 ERA on the season. Williams has given up a .398 wOBA to LH hitters this season so target the lefties in this lineup.
3) wOBA vs. BvP
Round 14 (Friday, August 15th): We basically had a tie on Friday night. David Wright (wOBA) went 0/3 with a walk and a run while Buster Posey (BvP) went 1/5 with a run. So Wright scored .25 more FP’s on Fanduel and Posey scored 1 more FP on DraftKings. We’ll call this one a draw and replay the round on Monday.
Scoreboard: BvP 7 – wOBA 6
Monday’s Matchup:
Dustin Pedroia (vs. C.J. Wilson): Pedroia has terrific numbers off of Hamels in his career. He has gone 9/21 with 4 XBH’s off of him.
Jayson Werth (vs. Vidal Nuno): Werth has a .405 wOBA against lefties this season and Nuno is giving up a .352 wOBA to RH hitters.
4) He’s on Fire!
Jon Jay (vs. Mike Leake): Jay is rarely targeted in the daily fantasy baseball world, but could be a nice play tonight as he draws a nice matchup against Leake and he has been swinging a hot bat. Over his last 10 games, Jay is 12/25 with 4 XBH’s, 7 runs, and 7 RBI’s. He’s also drawn 4 walks during that stretch.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
Adam Dunn (vs. Bud Norris): Dunn doesn’t hit for a high average, but he still has great power against RH pitching. When he goes up to the plate, one thing is for sure: he is swinging for the fences. Dunn has 19 HR’s on the season, 17 of which have come off of RH pitching. He’s facing Bud Norris who has really struggled with LH hitters throughout his career.