MLB First Look: Monday, August 25th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#7 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
Monday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:05 PM | Tampa Bay | Baltimore | Odorizzi (9-10) – 3.83 ERA | Tillman (10-5) – 3.55 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | St. Louis | Pittsburgh | Lackey (12-8) – 3.88 ERA | Liriano (3-10) – 4.18 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Washington | Philadelphia | Roark (12-7) – 2.80 ERA | Burnett (6-14) – 4.42 ERA |
| 7:07 PM | Boston | Toronto | Buchholz (5-8) – 5.94 ERA | Happ (8-8) – 4.39 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | N.Y. Yankees | Kansas City | Pineda (2-2) – 2.05 ERA | Shields (12-6) – 3.28 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Oakland | Houston | Samardzija (5-10) – 3.27 ERA | Feldman (7-9) – 4.37 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | Miami | L.A. Angels | Cosart (10-8) – 4.14 ERA | LeBlanc (0-0) – 7.36 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Milwaukee | San Diego | Lohse (11-7) – 3.49 ERA | Stults (6-13) – 4.53 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Texas | Seattle | Mikolas (1-5) – 7.48 ERA | Elias (9-10) – 4.09 ERA |
| 10:15 PM | Colorado | San Francisco | Matzek (2-9) – 5.38 ERA | Peavy (3-12) – 4.48 ERA |
What’s up Grinders, I am back from vacation. While I was able to still write the MLB First Look and the MLB Grind Down each day last week, I wasn’t around a computer for most of the day so I apologize for not responding to any comments. But I’m back, and I’m ready for a strong run down the stretch of the regular season. Feel free to ask any questions that you have by leaving a comment below.
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Francisco Liriano (vs. St. Louis Cardinals): You know it’s a thin night in the pitching department when Liriano looks like the top play. Liriano is always a pretty risky fantasy option, but he looks to be in a good spot as he takes on the Cardinals in the friendly confines of PNC Park. The Cardinals are ranked 16th in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season and 24th in wOBA on the road. Liriano is a sizable favorite and always carries good strikeout potential.
Kyle Lohse (vs. San Diego Padres): Lohse gets a huge ballpark boost tonight as he heads to the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in all of baseball (Petco Park). Lohse has pitched well this season with a 3.49 ERA and a K/9 of 6.4. While the Padres offense has been much better over the last 6 weeks, they are still not an offense that scares me, especially when they are at home in Petco. This is a great time to buy low on Lohse.
Jake Peavy (vs. Colorado Rockies): Peavy is typically a pitcher that I like to avoid, but his price has come way down and there really aren’t many viable pitching options on Monday. Peavy is a large favorite (-175) against a Rockies offense that really struggles on the road (27th in wOBA). Peavy still has decent strikeout potential too as he is averaging just over 7 K’s per 9 innings this season.
2) Two Offenses to Target
Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Clay Buchholz): This game features the highest run total on Monday night and for good reason. The Blue Jays are always one of the best offenses in baseball when they are playing at home in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. They draw a favorable matchup against Buchholz who has an ERA over 7.00 against them this season. Buchholz has struggled all season long and that’s not likely going to change tonight against a Blue Jays offense that is finally healthy.
Seattle Mariners (vs. Miles Mikolas): The Mariners have really started to put up some runs over the last few weeks. They have skyrocketed up the wOBA rankings vs. RH pitching and look like a great team to target tonight. They are facing Mikolas who has given up 13 earned runs over his last 2 starts which has increased his ERA to 7.48 on the season. Target batters from both sides of the plate here.
3) wOBA vs. BvP
Round 17 (Friday, August 22nd): After scoring a point, I guess we could call it a run, for Team wOBA on Thursday, Werth switched teams and delivered a big outing for Team BvP on Friday. He went 2/4 with a HR off of Hudson and the Giants to give Team wOBA the slight edge once again.
Scoreboard: BvP 9 – wOBA 8
Monday’s Matchup:
Evan Longoria (vs. Chris Tillman): This is a perfect example of BvP vs. handedness because in terms of the matchup, it’s not great as Longo typically hits lefties better and Tillman has kept RH hitters in check this season. That said, Longo has mashed Tillman throughout his career going 13/30 off of him with 5 HR’s and 2 doubles.
Aramis Ramirez (vs. Eric Stults): This is a solid matchup all around because Longo and A-Ram are both 3B and they are both at similar price points. While Longo has the BvP in his favor, Ramirez has the matchup in terms of handedness. Ramirez has a .449 wOBA against LH pitching this season and draws a favorable matchup against Eric Stults who has given up a .345 wOBA to RH hitters.
4) He’s on Fire!
Marcell Ozuna (vs. Wade LeBlanc): Ozuna’s name hasn’t popped up on the daily fantasy radar many times this season, but he has been red hot recently. With 15 hits, 11 RBI’s, and 10 runs over his last 10 games and multi-hit games in 4 of his last 5 and as a bonus draws a pretty favorable matchup against the lefty Wade LeBlanc who will be making his first start of the season.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
Yoenis Cespedes (vs. J.A. Happ): Carlos Santana did not homer on Friday, but we’ve still hit 2 of the last 4 daily dong predictions. We’ll look to make it 3 of the last 5 tonight with Cespedes as he takes on J.A. Happ in the very hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Happ has given up 14 HR’s this season, 10 of which were to RH hitters. Cespedes has 21 HR’s on the season and has always mashed LH pitching.