MLB First Look: Thursday, August 14th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#7 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
What’s up Grinders, welcome to another edition of the MLB First Look. Oldowl (Grinders member) had a great idea for the column. He suggested that I Fantasy Dud of the Night section where I list my biggest disappointment. I like the idea so I’ll start including it in the column each night. Wednesday was a pretty solid night overall, I had the Iwakuma pick nailed which really helped because it was a pretty low scoring night from hitters.
Fantasy Dud of the Night
Mike Trout (vs. A.J. Burnett): Trout would have won this award 2 nights in a row. After going 0/4 against Jerome Williams on Tuesday night he backed it up with another 0/4 tonight against A.J. Burnett. A big fat zero two nights in a row for one of the most expensive OF’s in daily fantasy. C’MON MAN!
Thursday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:10 PM | L.A. Dodgers | Atlanta | Hernandez (6-8) – 3.83 ERA | Harang (9-6) – 3.31 ERA |
| 1:08 PM | Pittsburgh | Detroit | Liriano (3-8) – 3.82 ERA | Scherzer (13-4) – 3.13 ERA |
| 2:10 PM | Oakland | Kansas City | Samardzija (5-8) – 2.91 ERA | Shields (11-6) – 3.25 ERA |
| 2:20 PM | Milwaukee | Chi. Cubs | Fiers (1-1) – 1.80 ERA | Jackson (6-12) – 5.61 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Washington | N.Y. Mets | Strasburg (8-10) – 3.68 ERA | Gee (4-4) – 3.54 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Arizona | Miami | Anderson (7-4) – 3.06 ERA | Penny (1-0) – 1.80 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Houston | Boston | Feldman (6-8) – 4.14 ERA | Webster (2-1) – 4.91 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | Tampa Bay | Texas | Odorizzi (8-9) – 3.89 ERA | (Ross) 2-4 – 5.61 ERA |
| 8:15 PM | San Diego | St. Louis | Stults (5-13) – 4.76 ERA | Lackey (12-8) – 3.98 ERA |
| 8:40 PM | Cincinnati | Colorado | Simon (12-7) – 3.08 ERA | De La Rosa (11-8) – 4.34 ERA |
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Max Scherzer (vs. Pittsburgh Pirates): The Pirates offense has been red hot over the last couple of weeks, but a matchup against one of the best pitchers in baseball will likely cool them off. Scherzer is averaging over 10 strikeouts per 9 innings this season and has an ERA under 2.00 since the start of July.
Stephen Strasburg (vs. New York Mets): I rarely target Strasburg away from Nationals Park, but will likely be doing so on Thursday. Strasburg has a terrific matchup against the Mets who are ranked 23rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. It’s a good matchup and he gets to face them in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field.
John Lackey (vs. San Diego Padres): While the Padres offense has been much better over the last month of play, they still aren’t scaring me off of targeting pitchers against them. Statistically, they are still the worst offense in baseball. Lackey is cheap and offers great upside for a pitcher at his price point.
2) Two Offenses to Target
Colorado Rockies (vs. Alfredo Simon): We have a game in Coors Field tonight. Alfredo Simon has been pitching over his head the entire season and his ERA is finally starting to catch up with his xFIP. I expect him to struggle mightily against the Rockies who are one of the best home hitting teams in baseball.
Boston Red Sox (vs. Scott Feldman): The Red Sox are favorites in a game that features a high run total. While they have let us down time and time again in this situation this season, I think they finally come through tonight against Feldman. Feldman doesn’t strike out many batters and the Sox should be able to put the ball in play and score some runs.
3) wOBA vs. BvP
Round 12 (Tuesday, August 12th): It was another quiet night from both sides, but Aramis Ramirez (wOBA) went 1/3 with a walk to beat out Daniel Murphy (wOBA) who went 0/4. Team wOBA is inching closer!
Scoreboard: BvP 7 – wOBA 5
Thursday’s Matchup:
Jonathan Lucroy (BvP Play of the Day): There are a ton of viable candidates for the BvP Play of the Day, but I wanted to pick a matchup with a pitcher and hitter that have the same handedness. That way the hitter won’t also qualify for the wOBA Play of the Day. Lucroy is 11/29 with 4 XBH’s off of Edwin Jackson in his career.
*Evan Longoria (wOBA Play of the Day): Longo has crushed LH pitching throughout his career and that has continued this season. He has a .360 wOBA against LH pitching and draws an extremely favorable matchup against Robbie Ross who has given up a .394 wOBA to RH hitters.
4) He’s on Fire! / Daily Dong Prediction
Chris Carter (vs. Allen Webster): Carter earns honors as the hot streak hitter as well as my favorite to hit a HR. Carter has been unbelievable over his last 10 games with 15 hits (7 HR’s), 17 RBI’s, and 12 runs. Those numbers would be good for most hitters over the course of an entire month. Carter is locked in right now and draws a favorable matchup against Webster in Fenway. I think he hits one over the Green Monster.