MLB First Look: Thursday, August 21st
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#7 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
Fantasy Dud of the Night
Garrett Richards (vs. Boston Red Sox): Part of his bad outing was due to a very serious left knee patellar injury, but he wasn’t pitching well at the time anyway. He was the 2nd most expensive pitcher on most fantasy sites last night and ended up giving up 2 earned runs on 5 hits in only 1 and 2/3 innings of work. He was certainly one of the biggest fantasy duds on Wednesday night.
Thursday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:05 PM | Houston | N.Y. Yankees | Keuchel (10-8) – 3.11 ERA | McCarthy (7-12) – 4.24 ERA |
| 1:10 PM | Detroit | Tampa Bay | Price (12-8) – 3.12 ERA | Cobb (8-6) – 3.19 ERA |
| 1:10 PM | Cleveland | Minnesota | Kluber (13-6) – 2.41 ERA | Hughes (13-8) – 3.76 ERA |
| 4:05 PM | Arizona | Washington | Miley (7-9) – 4.46 ERA | Gonzalez (6-9) – 4.06 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Atlanta | Cincinnati | Teheran (11-9) – 3.06 ERA | Holmberg (0-0) – 16.88 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | L.A. Angels | Boston | Shoemaker (11-4) – 3.84 ERA | De La Rosa (4-4) – 3.79 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | San Francisco | Chi. Cubs | Bumgarner (13-9) – 3.14 ERA | Wood (7-10) – 4.86 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | San Diego | L.A. Dodgers | Ross (11-11) – 2.70 ERA | Greinke (12-8) – 2.75 ERA |
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Clayton Kershaw (vs. San Diego Padres): Everyone should do whatever it takes to get Kershaw in their lineups on Thursday. He draws a terrific matchup against the Padres who are still ranked close to dead last in most major offensive categories this season. I could quote his stats, but it’s easier to say that he is the best pitcher in baseball and should be targeted in all league formats.
Gio Gonzalez (vs. Arizona Diamondbacks): Gonzalez draws a terrific matchup against a depleted Diamondbacks offense. The D-Backs have really struggled to score runs in this series and their offense is ranked 29th in baseball over the last 30 days of play. Gonzalez should be able to mow through this lineup and pick up a quality start and an easy win.
David Price (vs. Tampa Bay Rays): This will be Price’s first start back in Tampa. It will likely be an emotional game on both sides, but at the end of the day they both know that baseball is a business. Price is going to want to come back and pitch an excellent outing against his former team. He still owns one of the best K-rates in baseball and he certainly knows how to pitch at Tropicana Field.
2) Two Offenses to Target
Atlanta Braves (vs. David Holmberg): Holmberg will be making his 3rd career major-league start on Thursday. Since the start of this season, he has posted very mediocre numbers in the minors with an ERA of 4.64 and a fairly low K-rate. The Braves hit LH pitching well as a team and should be in for a productive outing on Thursday.
New York Yankees (vs. Dallas Keuchel): The Yankees have been pretty average against LH pitching this season, but they are sizable favorites in a game that features a total of 8.5 runs. Keuchel has struggled over his last 6 starts and the Yankees bats are certainly in play here.
3) wOBA vs. BvP
Round 15 (Wednesday, August 20th): It was another extremely close matchup between Jay Bruce (BvP) and Adam LaRoche (wOBA). Both reached base 3 times on Wednesday and in the end it came down to Bruce getting an extra at bat. He ended up with 2.5 FP’s on FD while LaRoche ended up with 2.75. Team wOBA closes the gap to 1 point.
Scoreboard: BvP 8 – wOBA 7
Thursday’s Matchup:
Joe Mauer (vs. Corey Kluber): It was slim pickens for BvP plays on Thursday. Mauer takes the cake as the top play as he is 5/13 with 3 XBH’s and 3 walks against Kluber in his career.
Jayson Werth (vs. Wade Miley): Werth earns the honor as the top wOBA play of the day. He has mashed LH pitching to a tune of a .402 wOBA this season and he’s facing Miley who has given up a .322 wOBA to RH hitters.
4) He’s on Fire!
David Ortiz (vs. Matt Shoemaker): Ortiz has been red hot over the last two weeks. He has a .455 batting average with a .624 wOBA over the last 14 days of play. He’s swinging a hot bat and draws a pretty favorable matchup against Shoemaker in Fenway Park.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
Buster Posey (vs. Travis Wood): As of right now, it looks like the wind may be blowing out to left field for the game in Wrigley on Thursday. As we all know, the ball carries well in Wrigley when the wind is blowing out. Posey has always hit LH pitching well and Wood has already given up 11 HR’s to RH hitters this season.