MLB First Look: Thursday, August 28th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek Farnsworth aka Notorious (#7 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
Thursday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:35 PM | Chi. Cubs | Cincinnati | Arrieta (7-4) – 2.53 ERA | Axelrod (0-0) – 3.00 ERA |
| 1:08 PM | N.Y. Yankees | Detroit | Kuroda (9-8) – 3.94 ERA | Lobstein (0-0) – 4.76 ERA |
| 3:45 PM | Colorado | San Francisco | Lyles (6-1) – 4.05 ERA | Petit (3-3) – 3.59 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Tampa Bay | Baltimore | Hellickson (1-2) – 2.61 ERA | Norris (11-8) – 3.91 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Atlanta | N.Y. Mets | Minor (5-8) – 4.90 ERA | Niese (7-9) – 3.47 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Texas | Houston | Tepesch (4-8) – 4.45 ERA | McHugh (6-9) – 3.02 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Minnesota | Kansas City | Milone (6-4) – 4.08 ERA | Guthrie (10-10) – 4.32 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Cleveland | Chi. White Sox | Carrasco (5-4) – 3.14 ERA | Danks (9-8) – 4.96 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | Oakland | L.A. Angels | Gray (13-7) – 3.00 ERA | Wilson (10-8) – 4.45 ERA |
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Collin McHugh (vs. Texas Rangers): McHugh has really pitched well for the Astros this season. He owns a 3.02 ERA with an impressive K/9 of 9.5. He does walk quite a few batters, but the K’s more than make up for it. Tonight he faces a Rangers offense that is ranked 24th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season.
Jake Arrieta (vs. Cincinnati Reds): Arrieta is my favorite play in the early slate of games. He has been dominant this season with a 2.53 ERA and a K/9 of 9.2. He doesn’t walk many batters and is only giving up 0.36 HR’s per 9 innings. He should mow through this Reds offense that is ranked 26th in wOBA vs. RH pitching.
Mike Minor (vs. New York Mets): Minor has been on the wrong side of luck this season. His xFIP is more than a full run lower than his ERA. Basically, he’s pitching better than his numbers on the surface suggest. He has a nice K/9 of 8.0 and he draws a very favorable matchup against the Mets who are ranked 28th in wOBA vs. LH pitching while striking out at a 24% clip.
2) Two Offenses to Target
Kansas City Royals (vs. Tommy Milone): The Royals often go overlooked in daily fantasy baseball because they don’t hit for a ton of power. They score runs by hitting singles and manufacturing runs. While that’s not exciting, it gets the job done. I love their matchup against Milone who hasn’t pitched that well this season.
Houston Astros (vs. Nick Tepesch): The Astros hitters are typically boom or bust options, but they are in a great spot against Nick Tepesch who has a 4.45 ERA on the season. He has also given up a .330+ wOBA to both LH and RH hitters so batters from both sides of the plate are in play.
3) wOBA vs. BvP
Round 20 (Wednesday, August 27th): Ian Desmond had a big game against Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies to carry Team BvP to a victory on Tuesday night. He went 3/4 with an RBI and a stolen base to outscore Steve Pearce who went 1/3 with a walk and a stolen base. Once again, we are all tied up.
Scoreboard: BvP 10 – wOBA 10
Thursday’s Matchup:
Chris Davis (vs. Jeremy Hellickson): Davis is having a down year, but he’ll be glad to see Hellickson on the mound. Davis earns the honor as BvP play of the day as he has gone 11/27 with 5 XBH’s off of Hellickson in his career.
Joe Mauer (vs. Jeremy Guthrie): I thought Mauer was a solid fit for his matchup with Davis because both are 1B in the same price range. Mauer is facing Jeremy Guthrie who has given up a .366 wOBA to LH hitters this season. Mauer meanwhile, owns a .348 wOBA against RH pitching.
4) He’s on Fire!
Buster Posey (vs. Jordan Lyles): After a 2 HR performance on Tuesday night, Posey had an encore performance on Wednesday as he hit a walk-off HR to beat the Rockies. He’s basically single-handedly beat the Rockies two nights in a row. Even though he’s not facing a lefty on Thursday, he should be targeted in all leagues.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
Zach Walters (vs. John Danks): I like Walter’s odds to homer for a few reasons. First off, Danks is a below average lefty that has already given up 21 HR’s to RH hitters this season. If that’s not enough, how about the fact that Walters has hit 6 HR’s in his last 13 games? It also doesn’t hurt that he’s still one of the cheapest SS options in the industry.