MLB First Look: Tuesday, August 12th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#7 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
Felix Hernandez is good. I mean really good. Monday night was his 16th straight outing in which he has pitched at least 7 innings while not allowing more than 2 earned runs. He is on an incredible tear, especially considering the fact that he pitches in the American League. On the opposite spectrum is Justin Verlander. After giving up 5 runs in the first inning, he was pulled due to shoulder soreness. He then stormed through the dugout. You have to hope that the injury isn’t serious, but we have to wonder if we will ever see Verlander pitch at the level that made him a Cy Young winner.
Tuesday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:05 PM | N.Y. Yankees | Baltimore | Greene (3-1) – 2.89 ERA | Chen (12-4) – 3.90 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Arizona | Cleveland | Collmenter (8-6) – 4.09 ERA | House (1-3) – 4.13 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Detroit | Pittsburgh | Ray (1-1) – 4.70 ERA | Volquez (9-7) – 3.70 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | L.A. Dodgers | Atlanta | Haren (9-9) – 4.57 ERA | Minor (4-7) – 5.42 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Boston | Cincinnati | Kelly (2-2) – 3.86 ERA | Latos (4-3) – 3.12 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | St. Louis | Miami | Wainwright (14-6) – 2.28 ERA | Cosart (9-8) – 4.51 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Washington | N.Y. Mets | Fister (11-3) – 2.49 ERA | Montero (0-2) – 5.40 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | Tampa Bay | Texas | Hellickson (1-1) – 2.61 ERA | Tepesch (4-7) – 4.46 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | Milwaukee | Chi. Cubs | Peralta (14-6) – 3.42 ERA | Hendricks (3-1) – 2.10 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Minnesota | Houston | Pino (1-4) – 4.59 ERA | McHugh (4-9) – 3.18 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Oakland | Kansas City | Lester (12-7) – 2.44 ERA | Guthrie (8-9) – 4.35 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | Philadelphia | L.A. Angels | Williams (2-5) – 6.71 ERA | Wilson (8-8) – 4.82 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Toronto | Seattle | Happ (8-6) – 4.09 ERA | Young (10-6) – 3.27 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Colorado | San Diego | Flande (0-4) – 5.77 ERA | Despaigne (2-3) – 3.10 ERA |
| 10:15 PM | Chi. White Sox | San Francisco | Sale (10-2) – 2.14 ERA | Vogelsong (7-8) – 3.77 ERA |
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Chris Sale (vs. San Francisco Giants): Sale has had a couple of subpar outings by his standards, but will look to get back on track against the Giants in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. Sale owns a 2.14 ERA on the season and a hefty K/9 of 10.2. The Giants are ranked 21st in wOBA vs. LH pitching while striking out at a 21% clip.
Jon Lester (vs. Kansas City Royals): Lester pitched extremely well against the Royals in Oakland and now he gets to face them in Kansas City. While he will see a slight ballpark bump in Kaufmann Stadium, he should be able to dominate this lineup once again. He typically pitches deep into games and the Royals are below average offensively against LH pitching this season.
Odrisamer Despaigne (vs. Colorado Rockies): If you are looking for a cheap pitcher to pair with either Sale or Lester, take a look at Despaigne. He is pitching in the pitcher’s paradise that is Petco Park and he’s facing a Rockies offense that is ranked 27th in wOBA on the road. He’s also a sizable favorite which never hurts.
2) Two Offenses to Target
L.A. Angels (vs. Jerome Williams): The Angels are huge favorites which is really saying something considering the fact that C.J. Wilson is on the mound. Jerome Williams has an ERA close to 7.00 and will be facing an Angels offense that is ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Both LH and RH hitters from the Angels are in play.
Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. Robbie Ray): The Pirates had a huge offensive outing on Monday and are in a great spot for a repeat performance on Tuesday. There aren’t many games that are played in PNC Park with a run total of 8.5. That’s the case tonight with Ray on the mound for the Tigers. Ray owns a 4.70 ERA this season and he doesn’t strike many batters out which means the Pirates should have no problem putting the ball in play.
3) wOBA vs. BvP
Round 11 (Monday, August 9th): It was ugly, but Garrett Jones drew a walk to give the BvP side another victory over Adam Rosales who went hit-less in the game. It’s never fun to see someone win by going 0/3 with a walk, but a win is a win. BvP takes a commanding lead.
Scoreboard: BvP 7 – wOBA 4
Tuesday’s Matchup:
Anthony Rizzo (BvP Play of the Day): Rizzo has had Wily Peralta’s number in his career. He’s faced him 19 times and has 8 hits off of him, 4 of which were HR’s. Rizzo will look to give the BvP side a 4-point lead.
Michael Brantley (wOBA Play of the Day): Brantley is looking to get team wOBA back on track. He draws a very favorable matchup against Josh Collmenter who has given up a .353 wOBA to LH hitters this season. Brantley meanwhile, has a .420 wOBA vs. RH pitching.
4) He’s on Fire!
Josh Harrison (vs. Robbie Ray): Harrison continued his incredibly hot stretch of games with 3 more hits in the Pirates huge win over the Tigers on Monday. He now has 20 hits over his last 10 games. If my math is correct, that should be 2 hits per game! He’s swinging a red hot bat and gets a favorable matchup against the lefty Robbie Ray.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
Chris Davis (vs. Shane Greene): We are finally starting to see some power from Davis. After struggling for the better part of 2 months, Davis has now hit 4 HR’s over his last 7 games. He draws a nice matchup against the rookie Shane Greene. Not only does Davis have a good shot of hitting a HR, but he also comes at an extreme discount.