MLB First Look: Tuesday, August 19th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#7 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
Fantasy Dud of the Night
Jordan Zimmermann (vs. Arizona Diamondbacks): I was expecting a dominant outing from Zimmermann tonight. He was pitching at home in the friendly confines of Nationals Park and he had a favorable matchup against a depleted Diamondbacks offense. While he only gave up 4 hits, the Diamondbacks made the most out of them by driving in 3 runs. He ended up pitching 7 innings, but only striking out 2 batters with a no-decision.
Tuesday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:05 PM | Arizona | Washington | Anderson (7-4) – 3.16 ERA | Strasburg (9-10) – 3.53 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Houston | N.Y. Yankees | Oberholtzer (4-8) – 3.87 ERA | Capuano (1-3) – 4.13 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Seattle | Philadelphia | Iwakuma (11-6) – 2.72 ERA | Burnett (6-13) – 4.35 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Atlanta | Pittsburgh | Harang (9-7) – 3.51 ERA | Liriano (3-9) – 3.78 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Detroit | Tampa Bay | Scherzer (14-4) – 2.98 ERA | Archer (8-6) – 3.24 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | L.A. Angels | Boston | Weaver (13-7) – 3.66 ERA | Webster (3-1) – 4.79 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Texas | Miami | Mikolas (1-5) – 7.71 ERA | Cosart (10-8) – 4.27 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | San Francisco | Chi. Cubs | Vogelsong (7-8) – 3.71 ERA | Wada (2-1) – 3.15 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Cleveland | Minnesota | Bauer (4-7) – 4.35 ERA | Gibson (11-9) – 3.96 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Toronto | Milwaukee | Happ (8-7) – 4.20 ERA | Fiers (2-1) – 1.29 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Baltimore | Chi. White Sox | Tillman (9-5) – 3.68 ERA | Quintana (6-9) – 3.14 ERA |
| 8:15 PM | Cincinnati | St. Louis | Simon (12-8) – 3.28 ERA | Lackey (12-8) – 3.91 ERA |
| 8:40 PM | Kansas City | Colorado | Shields (11-6) – 3.29 ERA | Matzek (2-8) – 5.50 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | N.Y. Mets | Oakland | Gee (4-5) – 3.69 ERA | Kazmir (13-5) – 2.78 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | San Diego | L.A. Dodgers | Kennedy (9-10) – 3.54 ERA | Correia (6-13) – 4.79 ERA |
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Stephen Strasburg (vs. Arizona Diamondbacks): Strasburg is pitching at home tonight. I could easily end the analysis there. He has been dominant at home throughout his career and this season is no different. He has a 2.41 ERA at Nationals Park with an impressive K/9 of 13.1. The Diamondbacks are not an offense that scares me in the slightest and Strasburg should be considered the top pitching option on Tuesday night.
Hisashi Iwakuma (vs. Philadelphia Phillies): Over his last 3 starts, Iwakuma has given up a combined 2 earned runs while striking out 15 batters. He’s been an extremely consistent fantasy option and that should continue on Tuesday as he faces a Phillies offense that is ranked 28th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Iwakuma is starting to miss more bats too which only helps his fantasy value.
John Lackey (vs. Cincinnati Reds): Lackey was well on his way to a terrific outing against the Padres until he gave up 2 earned runs. He was still in line for the win at that point, but the bullpen managed to blow the Cardinals lead. Lackey will look to continue his success tonight against the Reds who have been the 2nd worst offense in baseball over the last 30 days. Lackey is cheap and makes a great pairing with one of the aces listed above for those of you that play on multi-pitcher sites.
2) Two Offenses to Target
L.A. Angels (vs. Allen Webster): The Angels seem to have a favorable matchup every single night. After a series against the Rangers in Arlington, they have had a pretty easy series against the Red Sox in Fenway. Tonight they face Webster who has an xFIP of 6.36 on the season. Webster is walking nearly 7 batters per 9 innings which will likely come back to haunt him against a HR hitting team like the Angels.
J.A. Happ (vs. Milwaukee Brewers): This one is pretty simple. Happ struggles against RH hitters and the Brewers lineup is littered with RH hitters that feast on LH pitching. Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, Aramis Ramirez, Khris Davis, and Rickie Weeks are all in play tonight. They all hit LH pitching well and make a terrific stack option against the lefty Happ.
3) wOBA vs. BvP
Round 14 (Monday, August 18th): We had another tie on Monday night. Jayson Werth (wOBA) went 1/4 with an RBI and Dustin Pedroia (BvP) went 2/5 with two singles. Both players scored 1.25 FP’s on FD which is the site that we will set as the standard for scoring for our little BvP vs. wOBA battle. With another tie, we are forced to replay Round 14 once again.
Scoreboard: BvP 7 – wOBA 6
Tuesday’s Matchup:
Rickie Weeks (BvP): I mentioned that I’m really high on the Brewers bats tonight. Weeks should be in the lineup tonight against the lefty J.A. Happ, especially considering his history against him. Weeks is 8/17 with 2 HR’s and 3 doubles against J.A. Happ in his career.
Chris Johnson (wOBA): You don’t hear Johnson’s name often in the daily fantasy baseball world, but Johnson has an incredible .469 wOBA vs. LH pitching this season and no that’s not a typo. He gets the nod as the wOBA Play of the day as he will face Liriano who has given up a .334 wOBA to RH hitters this season.
4) He’s on Fire!
Michael Morse (vs. Tsuyoshi Wada): Over his last 10 games, Morse is 14/28 with 4 XBH’s and 7 RBI’s. He draws a nice matchup against Wada who has struggled against RH hitters this season. So you get a hot bat with a solid matchup. Plus, his price is pretty cheap across the industry.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
David Ortiz (vs. Jered Weaver): Ortiz is going to break the long drought that the Daily Dong has been under. Ortiz has a terrific matchup against Weaver who has already given up 19 HR’s this season. Weaver is a fly ball pitcher (49% fly ball rate) and he has really struggled on the road this season. Ortiz has already hit 2 HR’s off of Weaver in his career and I’m expecting #3 to come tonight in Fenway.