MLB First Look: Tuesday, September 2nd
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek Farnsworth aka Notorious (#7 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
Tuesday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:05 PM | Cincinnati | Baltimore | Latos (5-3) – 3.15 ERA | Norris (11-8) – 4.00 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Detroit | Cleveland | Lobstein (0-0) – 3.09 ERA | Carrasco (6-4) – 3.01 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Boston | N.Y. Yankees | Kelly (2-3) – 4.14 ERA | Greene (4-1) – 3.09 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Toronto | Tampa Bay | Dickey (10-12) – 4.00 ERA | Hellickson (1-2) – 2.98 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | N.Y. Mets | Miami | Niese (7-10) – 3.48 ERA | Penny (1-0) – 5.40 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Philadelphia | Atlanta | Kendrick (7-11) – 4.97 ERA | Minor (6-8) – 4.70 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | Milwaukee | Chi. Cubs | Gallardo (8-7) – 3.26 ERA | Arrieta (7-5) – 2.88 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Texas | Kansas City | Holland (0-0) – 0.00 ERA | Guthrie (10-10) – 4.43 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Chi. White Sox | Minnesota | Noesi (8-9) – 4.75 ERA | Milone (6-4) – 4.21 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | L.A. Angels | Houston | Santiago (4-7) – 3.28 ERA | Peacock (3-8) – 5.13 ERA |
| 8:15 PM | Pittsburgh | St. Louis | Locke (6-3) – 3.51 ERA | Wainwright (15-9) – 2.59 ERA |
| 8:40 PM | San Francisco | Colorado | Petit (4-3) – 3.44 ERA | Bergman (1-2) – 5.74 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | Seattle | Oakland | Paxton (4-1) – 1.83 ERA | Gray (13-7) – 3.03 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Washington | L.A. Dodgers | Fister (12-5) – 2.55 ERA | Kershaw (16-3) – 1.73 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Arizona | San Diego | Miley (7-10) – 4.30 ERA | Despaigne (3-5) – 3.24 ERA |
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Clayton Kershaw (vs. Washington Nationals): Whenever Kershaw is on the schedule, he immediately becomes the top pitching option for that night. He’s the best pitcher in all of baseball and will look to add to his incredibly strong resume against the Nats on Tuesday night. Kershaw owns a 1.73 ERA with a K/9 of 10.8. He’s producing a career high 54% ground ball rate and a career low 3.8% walk rate. That’s a combination that I love to see. He should be in for another big fantasy outing.
Sonny Gray (vs. Seattle Mariners): After Kershaw, the pitching options get very thin. Gray is probably the 2nd best pitcher on the mound as he takes on the Mariners at home. Gray owns a 3.03 ERA on the season with a K/9 of 7.6. He’s faced the M’s three times this season and has posted a 0.87 ERA with 17 K’s over 20 innings of work.
Mike Minor (vs. Philadelphia Phillies): Minor has finally put it altogether. He’s getting great movement on his pitches and he’s finally avoiding that big inning that kept plaguing him earlier in the season. In his last 3 starts, he’s only given up a combined 4 earned runs while striking out 17 batters. He draws a very favorable matchup against the Phillies who have struggled against LH pitching this season.
2) Two Offenses to Target
San Francisco Giants (vs. Jordan Lyles): The Giants are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now and they should be able to keep it going against Jordan Lyles in the very hitter-friendly Coors Field. The total for this game is set at 10.5 runs and the Giants are sizable favorites. Stack the Giants up if you can.
Cleveland Indians (vs. Kyle Lobstein): The Indians haven’t hit LH pitching well as a team this season, but they draw a great matchup against rookie Kyle Lobstein. Lobstein has been serviceable in his first two major-league appearances, but owns a low strikeout rate and the Indians are a very good hitting team at home.
3) wOBA vs. BvP
Recap of Round 21 (Friday, August 29th): Martin Prado (wOBA) had a decent outing against Mark Buehrle. He went 2/5 with 2 singles, but failed to drive in or score any runs. His teammate, Brett Gardner (BvP), outscored him by going 1/3 with a double, an RBI, a run, and a walk. Once again, BvP is back on top with less than a month to play.
Scoreboard: BvP 11 – wOBA 10
Tuesday’s Matchup:
David Wright (BvP Play of the Day): Wright has some terrific BvP numbers against Brad Penny in his career. He’s faced him 20 times and has 12 hits off of him, 4 of which went for home runs. Even though it’s only 20 at-bats, those are some of the best BvP numbers that we have seen while running this little contest.
Kole Calhoun (wOBA Play of the Day): Now I realize that there is a little bit of a price difference between Wright and Calhoun, but I thought this would be a good matchup. Calhoun draws a favorable matchup against Brad Peacock who has given up a .352 wOBA to LH hitters this season. Calhoun meanwhile, has a .350 wOBA against RH pitching.
4) He’s on Fire!
Hunter Pence (vs. Jordan Lyles): Pence is riding a 14-game hitting streak in which he has accumulated 23 hits, 14 RBI’s, and 15 runs. He homered again in Monday’s game against the Rockies and will look to keep his hot streak alive against Jordan Lyles who struggled in his last start against the Giants.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
Mike Trout (vs. Brad Peacock): It’s been a few days since we’ve hit on the Daily Dong Prediction, so hopefully Trout can put an end to the slump. Trout is facing a fly ball pitcher (41% fly ball rate) in a HR-friendly ballpark. Peacock has already given up 17 HR’s this season and has given up a .365 wOBA to RH hitters.