MLB First Look: Wednesday, August 13th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#7 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
We had another case of the weather blues on Tuesday night. The NYY/BAL game was postponed earlier in the day so it didn’t cause any issues, but the ARI/CLE got delayed and then never started back up. There were a few games in question before lineup lock, yet the Indians game looked like it had a window to get the game in. It just goes to show that sometimes it’s better to be safe than sorry when it comes to weather in daily fantasy baseball. Always make sure to check the RotoGrinders MLB Lineups Page each day and try to avoid the games that have a red heading.
Wednesday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:35 PM | Boston | Cincinnati | Workman (1-6) – 4.45 ERA | Leake (9-10) – 3.42 ERA |
| 2:10 PM | Minnesota | Houston | Gibson (10-9) – 4.13 ERA | Oberholtzer (4-7) – 4.05 ERA |
| 3:45 PM | Chi. White Sox | San Francisco | Quintana (6-8) – 3.04 ERA | Peavy (1-12) – 4.73 ERA |
| 4:05 PM | Arizona | Cleveland | Nuno (2-8) – 5.01 ERA | Bauer (4-7) – 4.52 ERA |
| 6:40 PM | Colorado | San Diego | Matzek (2-7) – 5.32 ERA | Kennedy (8-10) – 3.51 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Arizona | Cleveland | TBD | TBD |
| 7:05 PM | N.Y. Yankees | Baltimore | Pineda (2-2) – 1.83 ERA | Tillman (9-5) – 3.73 ERA |
| 7:08 PM | Pittsburgh | Detroit | Worley (5-1) – 2.30 ERA | Farmer |
| 7:10 PM | L.A. Dodgers | Atlanta | Ryu (13-5) – 3.21 ERA | Santana (11-6) – 3.69 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Washington | N.Y. Mets | Zimmermann (7-5) – 3.06 ERA | Colon (11-9) – 3.97 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | St. Louis | Miami | Masterson (5-7) – 5.94 ERA | Eovaldi (6-6) – 3.99 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | Milwaukee | Chi. Cubs | Lohse (11-6) – 3.33 ERA | Wada (1-1) – 3.25 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | Tampa Bay | Texas | Archer (7-6) – 3.33 ERA | Mikolas (1-4) – 6.57 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Oakland | Kansas City | Kazmir (13-4) – 2.73 ERA | Vargas (8-5) – 3.48 ERA |
| 10:05 PM | Philadelphia | L.A. Angels | Burnett (6-12) – 4.29 ERA | Weaver (12-7) – 3.68 ERA |
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Hisashi Iwakuma (vs. Toronto Blue Jays): Iwakuma has been terrific in his last 3 starts. He’s gone at least 7 innings in each start and he has only given up a combined 4 earned runs while striking out 16 batters. Iwakuma has lowered his ERA to 2.68 on the season and is sporting a K/9 of 7.1. He should be in for another quality outing against the Blue Jays at home.
Ian Kennedy (vs. Colorado Rockies): Kennedy may be the top play in the early slate of games. The Rockies are one of the worst road hitting teams in baseball and Kennedy will get a huge ballpark boost as this game will be played in Petco Park. Kennedy has an impressive K/9 of 9.5 and should be able to mow through this Rockies lineup.
Jered Weaver (vs. Philadelphia Phillies): Weaver is biggest favorite on the board on Wednesday. He’s currently listed at -220 for his matchup against the Phillies. The Phillies have struggled vs. RH pitching all season long and Weaver has some great splits at home. He’s sporting a 2.88 ERA at home while holding opponents to a .211 batting average.
2) Two Offenses to Target
Tampa Bay Rays (vs. Miles Mikolas): The Rays offense was pretty quiet last night, but they did manage to squeak out a 3-2 victory in extra innings. They will look to get things going offensively against Mikolas who currently owns a 6.57 ERA on the season. This game will be played in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park and I will be heavily targeting the Rays once again.
Detroit Tigers (vs. Vance Worley): I’m still not a believer in Worley. He doesn’t strike out many batters and his peripheral stats don’t look nearly as good as his 2.30 ERA. Worley will have his hands full with the Tigers who are ranked 5th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season and 2nd in wOBA at home. The Tigers will be one of my favorite stacks to target on Wednesday.
3) wOBA vs. BvP
Round 12 (Tuesday, August 12th): Rizzo had a solid game for team BvP as he homered in the Cubs 3-0 victory over the Brewers. Unfortunately though, the Indians game was postponed. Michael Brantley didn’t have a chance to match Rizzo’s production so we will have to call it a draw and will replay Round 12 on Wednesday.
Scoreboard: BvP 7 – wOBA 4
Wednesday’s Matchup:
Daniel Murphy (BvP Play of the Day): Despite a tough matchup on paper against Jordan Zimmermann, Murphy earns honors as the top BvP play. He has had Zimmermann’s number as he has gone 16/44 with 3 HR’s and 5 doubles off of him in his career.
Aramis Ramirez (wOBA Play of the Day): Ramirez will be facing Tsuyoshi Wada who has given up a .350 wOBA to RH hitters this season. Meanwhile, Ramirez has a .427 wOBA against southpaws. He will look to get team wOBA back on track.
4) He’s on Fire!
Josh Harrison (vs. Buck Farmar): Harrison only had 1 hit in last night’s game, but it was a double and he also added a stolen base and a run. He’s batting .464 over the last 14 days and has a .497 wOBA during that stretch. He should be able to keep the hot streak alive against the rookie Farmar who has never pitched above the Double-A level.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
Carlos Gomez (vs. Tsuyoshi Wada): Gomez has 18 HR’s on the season and is facing the 33 year-old rookie Wada. Wada has a pretty even distribution between ground and fly balls and he’s given up a high wOBA to RH hitters this season. The game will be played at Wrigley Field which is a very HR-friendly ballpark, especially when the wind is blowing out.