MLB First Look: Wednesday, August 20th
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#7 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more.
Fantasy Dud of the Night
Wednesday’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:40 PM | Texas | Miami | Martinez (2-9) – 5.27 ERA | Eovaldi (6-7) – 3.96 ERA |
| 1:05 PM | Seattle | Philadelphia | Paxton (3-0) – 2.20 ERA | Hamels (6-6) – 2.44 ERA |
| 2:10 PM | Toronto | Milwaukee | Dickey (9-12) – 3.95 ERA | Nelson (2-3) – 3.86 ERA |
| 3:35 PM | N.Y. Mets | Oakland | Wheeler (8-8) – 3.49 ERA | Samardzija (5-9) – 2.96 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Arizona | Washington | Cahill (3-8) – 4.68 ERA | Roark (12-7) – 2.93 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Houston | N.Y. Yankees | Feldman (6-9) – 4.45 ERA | Pineda (2-2) – 1.82 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Atlanta | Pittsburgh | Wood (9-9) – 3.07 ERA | Cole (7-4) – 3.78 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Detroit | Tampa Bay | Porcello (13-8) – 3.28 ERA | Odorizzi (9-9) – 3.82 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | L.A. Angels | Boston | Richards (13-4) – 2.53 ERA | Buchholz (5-7) – 5.79 ERA |
| 7:15 PM | Cincinnati | St. Louis | Cueto (15-6) – 2.06 ERA | Lynn (13-8) – 2.91 ERA |
| 8:05 PM | San Francisco | Chi. Cubs | Peavy (2-12) – 4.57 ERA | Jackson (6-13) – 5.74 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Cleveland | Minnesota | House (1-3) – 4.13 ERA | Nolasco (5-8) – 5.99 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Baltimore | Chi. White Sox | Chen (12-4) – 3.76 ERA | Noesi (7-8) – 4.84 ERA |
| 8:40 PM | Kansas City | Colorado | Duffy (8-10) – 2.60 ERA | De La Rosa (12-8) – 4.32 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | San Diego | L.A. Dodgers | Stults (5-13) – 4.64 ERA | Hernandez (7-8) – 3.72 ERA |
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
Jeff Samardzija (vs. New York Mets): Samardzija has been good, but not great so far as a member of the A’s. His strikeouts are down and he has given up 11 earned runs over his last 4 starts. That said, the Mets are typically a cure for the pitching blues. They are ranked 26th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season and are not afraid to strike out. Samardzija should see plenty of run support and is one of the safest cash game plays available.
Cole Hamels (vs. Seattle Mariners): Hamels has been an extremely consistent fantasy option this season. He hasn’t given up more than 3 earned runs in any of his last 15 starts. He owns a 2.44 ERA to go with his K/9 of 8.9. Tonight he faces a LH heavy Mariners offense that has really struggled to score runs against southpaws this season. The M’s are ranked 29th in wOBA vs. LH pitching.
Tanner Roark (vs. Arizona Diamondbacks): Roark is a huge favorite on Wednesday. He is currently listed at -200 in Vegas. That bodes well for his chances to pick up a win against a depleted Diamondbacks offense that has been the 4th worst offense in baseball over the last 30 days. Roark has great splits at home and makes for a terrific play at his moderate price point.
2) Two Offenses to Target
Colorado Rockies (vs. Danny Duffy): Duffy has a 2.64 ERA this season, but his peripheral stats don’t look nearly as good. He has a 4.54 xFIP and has held batters to a .232 BABIP which is extremely low. He’s a fly ball pitcher that is pitching in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in all of baseball. I’m expecting a big offensive outing from Arenado and Co. in this one.
Miami Marlins (vs. Nick Martinez): Martinez has been awful for the Rangers this season. He owns a 5.27 ERA with a K/9 of only 4.8. It’s never a good sign when a pitcher’s ERA is higher than his K-rate. The Marlins hit well at home and Marinez has given up a high wOBA to hitters from both sides of the plate this season.
3) wOBA vs. BvP
Round 14 (Tuesday, August 19th): As soon as Team wOBA starts to make a comeback, the BvP side answers right back. Rickie Weeks (BvP) took down Chris Johnson (wOBA) by going 1/4 with an RBI. That stretches the lead to two for Team BvP.
Scoreboard: BvP 8 – wOBA 6
Wednesday’s Matchup:
Jay Bruce (vs. Lance Lynn): There were a few options for the BvP play of the Day today, but Bruce had the biggest sample size of the candidates so he will get the nod. Bruce is 9/19 with 2 HR’s, 2 triples, and a double off of Lance Lynn in his career.
Adam LaRoche (vs. Trevor Cahill): LaRoche is one of my favorite plays at any position on Wednesday. Not only is he swinging a hot bat, but he has a terrific matchup against Trevor Cahill who has given up a .384 wOBA to LH hitters this season. LaRoche meanwhile, has a .401 wOBA against RH pitching.
4) He’s on Fire!
Kole Calhoun (vs. Clay Buchholz): Over the last 14 days, Calhoun is batting .458 with a .576 wOBA. He never seems to have a bad game when he is facing RH pitching and he draws another terrific matchup tonight as he faces Clay Buchholz in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park.
5) Daily Dong Prediction
Anthony Rizzo (vs. Jake Peavy): As predicted, David Ortiz got the Daily Dong back on track with a HR on Tuesday night. Rizzo gets the nod as the Daily Dong Wednesday. We’ll have to see which way the wind is blowing in Wrigley, but Rizzo has a great shot of hitting a HR either way. He already has 20 HR’s off of RH pitching this season and is facing Jake Peavy who has given up 21 HR’s, 15 of which were to LH hitters. If the wind is blowing out at all, that’s just an added bonus.