MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 10th Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-10 15:59:20

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Locke (FD: $6800, DK: $5700)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.91 / xFIP: 3.9 / SIERA: 4.07
K/9: 6.1 / K%: 0.162 / BB%: 0.073
MIL vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 17 / K% Rank: 20

Analysis: Locke is coming off of a decent 2014 season where he posted a 3.90 xFIP and a K/9 of 6.1. He’s a better play at home than he is on the road. He draws a tough matchup tonight against the Brewers in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. The Brewers have quite a few right-handed batters that feast on left-handed pitching. Locke is a risky fantasy option tonight, especially given the little upside that he offers. Rating = 5

Mike Fiers (FD: $8300, DK: $8300)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 2.13 / xFIP: 3.15 / SIERA: 2.94
K/9: 9.54 / K%: 0.277 / BB%: 0.062
PIT vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 3 / K% Rank: 14

Analysis: Fiers has been dealing with a shoulder injury this Spring, which is a little concerning heading into his first start of the season. He’s coming off of a terrific season, posting a 3.15 xFIP with an impressive K/9 of 9.5. He had one of the highest strikeout rates in the majors, striking out 27.7% of the batters that he faced. I’m willing to look past his shoulder injury, as his price point is much too low to start the season. If he pitches like he did last year, his price will quickly elevate. Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Andrew McCutchen (FD: $4900, DK: $5200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.415 / ISO: 0.225

Milwaukee

Carlos Gomez (FD: $4300, DK: $5600)

BA: 0.284 / wOBA: 0.368 / ISO: 0.193
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 / ISO: 0.218

Analysis: There were quite a few options for the top play on the Brewers tonight. Don’t be afraid to target a few of the right-handed hitters in this lineup. Gomez gets the nod as the top play, as he has both speed and power. Gomez had a .367 wOBA and a .218 ISO against left-handed pitching last season. He draws a favorable matchup against Jeff Locke, who gave up a .342 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season.

Secondary Plays:

Jonathan Lucroy (FD: $3500, DK: $4600) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.367 / ISO: 0.159

Aramis Ramirez (FD: $3200, DK: $4200) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.44 / ISO: 0.297

Khris Davis (FD: $2600, DK: $4500) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.336 / ISO: 0.218

LA Dodgers at Arizona

Pitcher Grind Down

Brett Anderson (FD: $6200, DK: $6200)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 2.91 / xFIP: 3.55 / SIERA: 3.61
K/9: 6.02 / K%: 0.161 / BB%: 0.072
ARI vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 25 / K% Rank: 8

Analysis: Anderson has dealt with quite a few injuries over the past few seasons. He has only managed to make 19 starts over the last three years. He is a very good pitcher when healthy. He’s a small favorite tonight against the Diamondbacks in Chase Field. If this game was being played in L.A. I would consider him as a viable SP2. The problem is that Chase Field is a very hitter-friendly ballpark. Paul Goldschmidt and Mark Trumbo can both ruin a pitcher’s outing with a single swing of their bats. Rating = 5.5

Chase Anderson (FD: $6500, DK: $5300)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.01 / xFIP: 3.67 / SIERA: 3.78
K/9: 8.27 / K%: 0.216 / BB%: 0.082
LAD vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 3 / K% Rank: 13

Analysis:

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez (FD: $5300, DK: $4700)

BA: 0.276 / wOBA: 0.351 / ISO: 0.206
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 / ISO: 0.236

Analysis: Gonzalez hit not one, not two, but three home runs the other night against the Padres. He has already hit four home runs this season, which is easily the highest total in baseball. His ownership percentage will certainly go up after that performance, but he’s still a very strong play tonight. Gonzalez loves to play in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. He has had a higher wOBA here than he has in any ballpark over the last three season.

Secondary Plays:

Yasiel Puig (FD: $4000, DK: $4800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.393 / ISO: 0.209

Howie Kendrick (FD: $3300, DK: $4800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.315 / ISO: 0.095

Arizona

Paul Goldschmidt (FD: $4900, DK: $5600)

BA: 0.3 / wOBA: 0.402 / ISO: 0.241
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.47 / ISO: 0.205

Analysis:

Goldschmidt against a left-handed pitcher is a matchup that you want to target whenever the opportunity presents itself. Goldschmidt finished 2014 with a .470 wOBA and a .205 ISO against left-handed pitching. Those numbers aren’t quite as good as Troy Tulowitzki, but they are close. Goldschmidt should be considered the top option at first base tonight against Brett Anderson.

Secondary Plays:

Mark Trumbo (FD: $3300, DK: $4600) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.344 / ISO: 0.213

A.J. Pollock (FD: $3100, DK: $4500) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.407 / ISO: 0.34

Kansas City at LA Angels

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Vargas (FD: $6900, DK: $7000)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.71 / xFIP: 4.05 / SIERA: 4.14
K/9: 6.16 / K%: 0.162 / BB%: 0.052
LAA vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 3 / K% Rank: 3

Analysis: Vargas had a pretty successful season last year, posting a 4.05 xFIP with a K/9 of 6.2. He’s not going to overwhelm hitters with his fastball, but he can hit his spots and make it tough on opponents. He’s a pitcher to monitor moving forward, but he can safely be avoided tonight against the Angels, who were ranked 3rd in team wOBA against left-handed pitching last season. Rating = 5

Hector Santiago (FD: $6300, DK: $6500)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.75 / xFIP: 4.57 / SIERA: 4.38
K/9: 7.63 / K%: 0.199 / BB%: 0.097
KC vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 14 / K% Rank: 1

Analysis: Santiago finished 2014 with a 4.57 xFIP and a K/9 of 7.6. The strikeout numbers are intriguing, as he does offer good upside. The issue tonight is that he is facing a Royals’ team that struck out fewer times than any other team in baseball last season. Santiago is a small favorite here, but I’m not taking the bait against the Royals. There are safer options for your SP2 tonight. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Lorenzo Cain (FD: $3500, DK: $4100)

BA: 0.301 / wOBA: 0.330 / ISO: 0.11
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.157

Analysis: Cain is off to a hot start this season. He is 5/12 with a home run, a double, and 4 RBIs. He is always in play against left-handed pitching, as he had a .362 wOBA against southpaws in 2014. He draws a favorable matchup against Hector Santiago, who gave up a .326 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Secondary Plays:

Alcides Escobar (FD: $3100, DK: $4100) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.342 / ISO: 0.129

LA Angels

Mike Trout (FD: $5100, DK: $5100)

BA: 0.287 / wOBA: 0.402 / ISO: 0.274
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398 / ISO: 0.248

Analysis: Mr. Trout is one of the top plays at any position tonight. He has a good matchup, he has the ability to steal bases, and he hits for power. He had a .398 wOBA and a .248 ISO against left-handed pitching last season. His price is a little expensive on FanDuel, but he’s very playable on DraftKings at a price of $5,100.

Secondary Plays:

Albert Pujols (FD: $4000, DK: $4200) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.317 / ISO: 0.173

David Freese (FD: $2900, DK: $4200) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.382 / ISO: 0.17

Seattle at Oakland

Pitcher Grind Down

Taijuan Walker (FD: $7400, DK: $7300)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 2.61 / xFIP: 3.88 / SIERA: 3.97
K/9: 8.05 / K%: 0.213 / BB%: 0.113
OAK vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 9 / K% Rank: 3

Analysis: Walker has been one of the Mariners’ prospects for a while now. He looked good in his five starts with the team last season, posting a 3.88 xFIP and a K/9 of 8.1. He did struggle with his command a bit, walking 11.3% of the batters that he faced. He offers nice upside at his price point, but the A’s aren’t a team that strikes out a lot. In fact, they struck out the 3rd-fewest of any team last season. Walker makes a strong tournament play, but I’ll give him a start or two before considering him in cash games. Rating = 6

Drew Pomeranz (FD: $6800, DK: $6400)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 2.35 / xFIP: 3.65 / SIERA: 3.62
K/9: 8.35 / K%: 0.23 / BB%: 0.094
SEA vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 28 / K% Rank: 15

Analysis: Pomeranz pitched well last season, posting a 3.65 xFIP with a K/9 of 8.4. The biggest issue with Pomeranz last season was that he rarely pitched deep into games. Hopefully that will change this year, as he is healthy heading into the season. The Mariners were one of the best teams to target left-handed pitchers against last night, but it’s a different story this year, as they have Nelson Cruz to bolster their lineup. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Nelson Cruz (FD: $3800, DK: $4300)

BA: 0.271 / wOBA: 0.370 / ISO: 0.254
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.416 / ISO: 0.255

Analysis: Cruz is underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He is going to be priced above $4,000 on FD and above $5,000 on DK here shortly. Until that happens, we can continue to target him at a discounted price point. He is one of the best hitters in baseball against left-handed pitching, posting a .416 wOBA and a .255 ISO against southpaws last season.

Secondary Plays:

Mike Zunino (FD: $2500, DK: $3700) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.319 / ISO: 0.176

Oakland

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Ben Zobrist (FD: $3100, DK: $4200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.118

Stephen Vogt (FD: $2700, DK: $3500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.337 / ISO: 0.148

San Francisco at San Diego

Pitcher Grind Down

Tim Lincecum (FD: $6400, DK: $7600)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.74 / xFIP: 3.81 / SIERA: 3.95
K/9: 7.75 / K%: 0.199 / BB%: 0.094
SD vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 30 / K% Rank: 25

Analysis: Tim “boom or bust” Lincecum is one of the better values on the board tonight. Sure he struggles with consistency, but he gets to face a Padres’ offense in Petco Park. Lincecum has thrown a no-hitter here in the past and in case you are new to daily fantasy baseball, Petco is the best pitcher’s park in baseball. Lincecum is cheap and he has a chance to pick up the win if he can get some run support. Ignore the bad Spring and target Lincecum as a viable SP2. Rating = 6.5

Brandon Morrow (FD: $5900, DK: $7200)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 5.67 / xFIP: 4.06 / SIERA: 4.23
K/9: 8.1 / K%: 0.203 / BB%: 0.122
SF vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 15 / K% Rank: 15

Analysis: Morrow has a ton of potential, but he’s been a bit of a letdown over the last couple of season. The Padres decided to make him their fifth starter though, even after a mediocre Spring. Morrow provides great strikeout potential and he is finally playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Morrow is extremely cheap on FanDuel, making him one of the top tournament plays on the board. He also deserves consideration as an SP2. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Angel Pagan (FD: $3500, DK: $4000) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.278 / ISO: 0.101

Nori Aoki (FD: $3200, DK: $3500) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.386 / ISO: 0.073

San Diego

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Matt Kemp (FD: $4000, DK: $4600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.382 / ISO: 0.229