MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 17th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-17 15:54:27

Cleveland at Minnesota

Pitcher Grind Down

Corey Kluber (FD: $10700, DK: $9800)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 2.44 / xFIP: 2.57 / SIERA: 2.61
K/9: 10.27 / K%: 0.283 / BB%: 0.054

MIN vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.243 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 0.235 (Rank: 25)

Kluber is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He is also one of the most productive pitchers in daily fantasy baseball. So why is he priced under $11,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings? I’m not here to answer those questions, I’m just here to point out the great plays and by golly, Kluber is a great play tonight. He has an elite strikeout rate (28.3% in 2014) and he has great command (5.4% walk rate in 2014). Kluber is also facing a Twins’ offense that is ranked dead last in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Dollar for dollar, he’s a better play the likes of David Price, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw. Rating = 9

Mike Pelfrey (FD: $5800, DK: $4000)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 7.99 / xFIP: 6.55 / SIERA: 6.45
K/9: 3.8 / K%: 0.084 / BB%: 0.151

CLE vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 0.239 (Rank: 26)

We have a very interesting selection of pitchers tonight. There are quite a few aces on the mound and then there are quite a few pitchers that arguably shouldn’t be in the rotation of a major league team. While I hope Pelfrey surprises us all and has a great season, I just don’t see it happening. He had a 6.55 xFIP and an extremely low K/9 of 3.8 last season. There will likely be a few relievers that score more fantasy points than Pelfrey does tonight. Rating = 2

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Jason Kipnis (FD: $3400, DK: $4700)

BA: 0.240 / wOBA: 0.289 / ISO: 0.09
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 / ISO: 0.117

Kipnis is priced up for his matchup on DraftKings, but he’s very affordable on FanDuel at a price of only $3,400. He draws a terrific matchup against Pelfrey, who has given up a .344 career wOBA to left-handed hitters. Pelfrey doesn’t strike many batters out so the Indians should be able to make some great contact tonight. They are one of the best and most obvious teams to stack.

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Santana (FD: $3400, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.340 / ISO: 0.195

Brandon Moss (FD: $3500, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.336 / ISO: 0.213

Michael Bourn (FD: $2700, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.321 / ISO: 0.116

Minnesota

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

NO SECONDARY PLAYS

Cincinnati at St. Louis

Pitcher Grind Down

Johnny Cueto (FD: $10600, DK: $9700)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 2.25 / xFIP: 3.21 / SIERA: 3.15
K/9: 8.94 / K%: 0.252 / BB%: 0.068

STL vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 0.17 (Rank: 4)

This game should be a fun pitcher’s duel to watch. Cueto is coming off of a terrific 2014 campaign, where he posted a 3.21 xFIP with a K/9 of 8.9. His walk rate is a little higher than some of the other top aces in baseball, but his elite strikeout rate more than makes up for it. When compared to the other elite options on the board, I have him ranked behind the likes of David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, and Max Scherzer. If this were a different slate, I’d have more shares of Cueto. Rating = 8

Michael Wacha (FD: $8400, DK: $8000)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.2 / xFIP: 3.71 / SIERA: 3.74
K/9: 7.91 / K%: 0.21 / BB%: 0.074

CIN vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.283 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 0.233 (Rank: 22)

Wacha is in the same boat as his pitching opponent, Johnny Cueto. While I expect both to pitch well, neither pitcher stands out as a must-start with all of the other top aces on the mound tonight. Wacha does draw a favorable matchup against the Reds and he does provide good strikeout potential for his price, but I will likely only be using him as a contrarian play in tournaments. There are options that have both a higher floor and a higher ceiling for cash games. Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Joey Votto (FD: $4300, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.342 / ISO: 0.093

St. Louis

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

NO SECONDARY PLAYS

Texas at Seattle

Pitcher Grind Down

Yovani Gallardo (FD: $7600, DK: $6900)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.51 / xFIP: 3.64 / SIERA: 3.78
K/9: 6.83 / K%: 0.179 / BB%: 0.066

SEA vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.283 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 0.233 (Rank: 22)

Gallardo pitched well in his last start against the Astros, but he draws a much tougher matchup against the Mariners tonight. Gallardo doesn’t have the strikeout potential of the other pitching options tonight and I find myself looking elsewhere in both cash games and tournaments. Gallardo is a sizable underdog against a Mariners’ lineup that will load up on left-handed hitters. Rating = 5.5

J.A. Happ (FD: $6600, DK: $6800)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.22 / xFIP: 3.95 / SIERA: 3.94
K/9: 7.58 / K%: 0.198 / BB%: 0.076

TEX vs. LH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.272 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 0.23 (Rank: 21)

Happ pitched well in his first start of the season, but he was only able to strike out one single batter in seven innings of work against the A’s. Happ would typically be a sneaky play in this spot. He is very cheap, he’s a small favorite at home, and he’s facing a Rangers’ offense that is ranked 22nd in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Unfortunately, there are much safer options in this ace-heavy slate of games. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Texas

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Adrian Beltre (FD: $3500, DK: $4100) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.421 / ISO: 0.191

Jake Smolinski (FD: $2800, DK: $2900) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.585 / ISO: 0.381

Seattle

Kyle Seager (FD: $3500, DK: $3600)

BA: 0.268 / wOBA: 0.346 / ISO: 0.186
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.376 / ISO: 0.221

Even though Gallardo has typically produced reverse splits, I still have Seager ranked as my top Mariners’ hitter tonight. Seager’s price is depressed and he is in the perfect spot for fantasy production. Last season, Seager was at his best when he was at home (.390 wOBA) facing a right-handed pitcher (.376 wOBA). Take advantage of the depressed price point.

Secondary Plays:

Nelson Cruz (FD: $4800, DK: $4800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.356 / ISO: 0.254

Robinson Cano (FD: $3900, DK: $4000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.382 / ISO: 0.166

Colorado at LA Dodgers

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Kendrick (FD: $7100, DK: $4400)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.61 / xFIP: 4.35 / SIERA: 4.45
K/9: 5.47 / K%: 0.14 / BB%: 0.066

LAD vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.371 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 0.193 (Rank: 13)

Kendrick is the largest underdog on the board tonight. He is facing a Dodgers’ offense that is ranked 3rd in wOBA against right-handed pitching and he will likely see little to no run support with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. Rating = 2.5

Clayton Kershaw (FD: $11800, DK: $12600)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 1.77 / xFIP: 2.08 / SIERA: 2.09
K/9: 10.85 / K%: 0.319 / BB%: 0.041

COL vs. LH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.285 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 0.279 (Rank: 26)

Kershaw should call in sick whenever the Dodgers play in Chase Field. They seem to have his number when he faces them in Arizona. He should bounce back in a big way tonight and with all of the other pitching options, this may be one of the few times this season that you can target Kershaw at a relatively low level of ownership. Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball and he will have his A-game tonight against a Rockies’ team that is ranked 20th in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Dollar for dollar, he’s not the top pitcher, but again this is one of the few opportunities to target him with a low level of ownership. Rating = 9.5

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Troy Tulowitzki (FD: $4800, DK: $4100) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.556 / ISO: 0.436

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez (FD: $5000, DK: $4900)

BA: 0.276 / wOBA: 0.351 / ISO: 0.206
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 / ISO: 0.236

Gonzalez is always in play against right-handed pitching. He finished the 2014 season with a .384 wOBA and a .236 ISO against righties. He draws an extremely favorable matchup against Kyle Kendrick, who gave up a .360 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. The only knock that I have on Gonzalez is his expensive price tag on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Secondary Plays:

Jimmy Rollins (FD: $3600, DK: $4000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.326 / ISO: 0.161

Andre Ethier (FD: $2600, DK: $3100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.314 / ISO: 0.132

Arizona at San Francisco

Pitcher Grind Down

Josh Collmenter (FD: $6700, DK: $6500)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.46 / xFIP: 4.07 / SIERA: 4.18
K/9: 5.77 / K%: 0.16 / BB%: 0.054

SF vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 0.189 (Rank: 10)

Collmenter is an easy pitcher to avoid tonight. While he will be playing in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park, he has a mediocre strikeout rate and he’s facing a very capable Giants’ offense. Collmenter is a small underdog that offers little upside in daily fantasy. Rating = 4

Jake Peavy (FD: $7600, DK: $8200)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.73 / xFIP: 4.18 / SIERA: 4.11
K/9: 7.02 / K%: 0.185 / BB%: 0.074

ARI vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.285 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 0.233 (Rank: 22)

Peavy would be a decent fantasy option in this spot on most nights, but again, this is not the night to target a pitcher with average strikeout potential in an average matchup. There are better options at his price point and he can safely be avoided in all league formats. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt (FD: $5000, DK: $4800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.386 / ISO: 0.249

David Peralta (FD: $2800, DK: $3500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.369 / ISO: 0.194

Ender Inciarte (FD: $3300, DK: $3300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.307 / ISO: 0.097

San Francisco

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Buster Posey (FD: $4200, DK: $4000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.366 / ISO: 0.164

Angel Pagan (FD: $3400, DK: $3900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.350 / ISO: 0.082

Nori Aoki (FD: $3300, DK: $3500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.297 / ISO: 0.076