MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 22 - Page Three

St. Louis at Kansas City – 8:10 PM EST

St. Louis Kansas City
stlouismlb Lance Lynn kansascitymlb Chris Young
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
KCR (-107) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.241 0.706 0.316 0.18 SP vs. Left 0.24 0.757 0.333 0.133
SP vs. Right 0.232 0.634 0.283 0.258 SP vs. Right 0.18 0.589 0.258 0.2
Batter Splits STL BvP STL vs R Batter Splits KC BvP KC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance Lynn (FD: $8800, DK: $9300)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 48 — SIERA: 3.09 — K Rate: 28.4% — K/9: 10.73 — BB Rate: 7.8% — FB Rate: 35.7% — HR/FB: 4.4%
2014: IP: 203 — SIERA: 3.84 — K Rate: 20.9% — K/9: 8.00 — BB Rate: 8.3% — FB Rate: 36.0% — HR/FB: 6.1%

Kansas City Royals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.330 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 15.1% (Rank: 1)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.62 (Rank: 30)

Analysis: Don’t target pitchers in Coors Field and don’t target pitchers against the Royals. Kansas City seems to look forward to facing the top pitchers in baseball, as they have had success against aces time and time again this season. Lynn is not on my radar tonight against a team that is ranked second in wOBA (.330) and 1st in strikeout rate (15.1%) against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:57.7


Chris Young (FD: $6300, DK: $5100)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 28 — SIERA: 4.42 — K Rate: 20.0% — K/9: 6.59 — BB Rate: 6.7% — FB Rate: 62.7% — HR/FB: 2.1%
2014: IP: 165 — SIERA: 5.24 — K Rate: 15.7% — K/9: 5.89 — BB Rate: 8.7% — FB Rate: 58.7% — HR/FB: 8.8%

St. Louis Cardinals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 10)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.68 (Rank: 27)

Analysis: Young has been a serviceable starter for the Royals this season, but he’s not a recommended fantasy option. His strikeout rate isn’t high enough and he draws a difficult matchup against the Cardinals, who are ranked ninth in wOBA (.321) and tenth in strikeout rate (19.4%) against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:37.5

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Matt Carpenter (FD: $4000, DK: $4900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 166 — wOBA: 0.412 — ISO: 0.269 — wRC+: 163
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 709 — wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.104 — wRC+: 120

Kolten Wong (FD: $3300, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 166 — wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.174 — wRC+: 131
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 433 — wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.137 — wRC+: 83

Matt Adams (FD: $2500, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 133 — wOBA: 0.300 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 89
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 563 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.187 — wRC+: 137


Kansas City

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Eric Hosmer (FD: $4100, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 178 — wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.278 — wRC+: 194
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 547 — wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.132 — wRC+: 105


Minnesota at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM EST

Minnesota Chicago White Sox
minnesotamlb Phil Hughes whitesoxmlb Jeff Samardzija
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHW (-129) 8
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.254 0.657 0.287 0.207 SP vs. Left 0.247 0.687 0.302 0.222
SP vs. Right 0.289 0.758 0.33 0.206 SP vs. Right 0.236 0.662 0.291 0.214
Batter Splits MIN BvP MIN vs R Batter Splits CWS BvP CWS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Phil Hughes (FD: $7800, DK: $7200)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 51 — SIERA: 4.07 — K Rate: 16.3% — K/9: 6.18 — BB Rate: 2.3% — FB Rate: 42.2% — HR/FB: 13.7%
2014: IP: 209 — SIERA: 3.17 — K Rate: 21.8% — K/9: 7.98 — BB Rate: 1.9% — FB Rate: 40.2% — HR/FB: 6.2%

Chicago White Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 13)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.72 (Rank: 26)

Analysis: After a nice bounce-back campaign in 2014, Hughes is up to his old tricks again. He has a mediocre 4.07 SIERA this season with a low K/9 of 6.2. He doesn’t walk many batters, but he hasn’t been nearly as sharp as he was last year. He’s a small underdog tonight against the White Sox in a game that features a total of 8.0 runs.

Pitcher Rating:52.6


Jeff Samardzija (FD: $8900, DK: $8700)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 53 — SIERA: 4.06 — K Rate: 17.3% — K/9: 6.79 — BB Rate: 4.8% — FB Rate: 37.0% — HR/FB: 10.9%
2014: IP: 219 — SIERA: 3.06 — K Rate: 23.0% — K/9: 8.28 — BB Rate: 4.9% — FB Rate: 30.5% — HR/FB: 10.6%

Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.287 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 23.1% (Rank: 27)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.80 (Rank: 16)

Analysis: My rating system likes Samardzija a bit more than I do tonight. He has not pitched all that well this season with a 4.06 SIERA and a K/9 of 6.8. He does draw a favorable matchup against the Twins though. On the season, the Twins are ranked 27th in wOBA (.287) and 27th in strikeout rate (23.1%) against right-handed pitching. Samardzija could make for an intriguing tournament play tonight at home.

Pitcher Rating:75.2

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Brian Dozier (FD: $3800, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 178 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.227 — wRC+: 124
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 707 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.161 — wRC+: 114


Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu (FD: $3500, DK: $4600)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 160 — wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: 0.197 — wRC+: 141
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 622 — wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.250 — wRC+: 153

Analysis: Phil Hughes is a reverse-splits pitcher. Since the start of last season, he has given up a .330 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Jose Abreu on the other hand, hits both left and right-handed pitching well. He is still cheap on FanDuel and he has a .379 wOBA against right-handed pitching. I don’t call my home run shots very often, but I’m calling for one from Abreu tonight.

Secondary Plays:

Alexei Ramirez (FD: $2300, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 149 — wOBA: 0.274 — ISO: 0.134 — wRC+: 69
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 657 — wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.126 — wRC+: 94


San Francisco at Colorado – 8:10 PM EST

San Francisco Colorado
sanfranciscomlb Ryan Vogelsong coloradomlb Kyle Kendrick
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SFG (-111) 10
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.289 0.844 0.368 0.194 SP vs. Left 0.286 0 0.372 0.156
SP vs. Right 0.218 0.667 0.298 0.182 SP vs. Right 0.263 0.751 0.33 0.121
Batter Splits SF BvP SF vs R Batter Splits COL BvP COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ryan Vogelsong (FD: $6400, DK: $5300)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 39 — SIERA: 4.76 — K Rate: 15.9% — K/9: 6.46 — BB Rate: 9.7% — FB Rate: 40.3% — HR/FB: 17.3%
2014: IP: 184 — SIERA: 3.98 — K Rate: 19.4% — K/9: 7.36 — BB Rate: 7.4% — FB Rate: 37.3% — HR/FB: 8.8%

Colorado Rockies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 18)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.78 (Rank: 18)

Analysis: Simply put, Vogelsong is in trouble tonight. Coors Field is not a pitcher’s best friend.

Pitcher Rating:36.4


Kyle Kendrick (FD: $5600, DK: $4000)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 47 — SIERA: 4.90 — K Rate: 12.4% — K/9: 4.98 — BB Rate: 7.6% — FB Rate: 33.3% — HR/FB: 18.5%
2014: IP: 199 — SIERA: 4.45 — K Rate: 14.0% — K/9: 5.47 — BB Rate: 6.6% — FB Rate: 34.7% — HR/FB: 11.0%

San Francisco Giants vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 17.2% (Rank: 5)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.74 (Rank: 21)

Analysis: The only pitcher that I like less than Ryan Vogelsong tonight is Kyle Kendrick.

Pitcher Rating:23.2

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Brandon Belt (FD: $3900, DK: $4900)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 133 — wOBA: 0.428 — ISO: 0.221 — wRC+: 179
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 235 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.240 — wRC+: 120

Analysis: Belt often gets overlooked at first base thanks to the multitude of options at the position. Hopefully, that’s the case again tonight. Belt has been terrific against right-handed pitching this season, posting a .428 wOBA and a .221 ISO. He gets to play in the hitter’s paradise that is Coors Field and he gets to face Kyle Kendrick, who struggles with left-handed hitters. Load up on the Giants’ offense in both cash games and tournaments.

Secondary Plays:

Buster Posey (FD: $4600, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 165 — wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 141
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 605 — wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 141

Hunter Pence (FD: $3300, DK: $5500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 21 — wOBA: 0.480 — ISO: 0.308 — wRC+: 213
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 708 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.182 — wRC+: 123

Angel Pagan (FD: $2600, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 162 — wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.104 — wRC+: 113
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 413 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.082 — wRC+: 129

Nori Aoki (FD: $3400, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 174 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.110 — wRC+: 121
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 549 — wOBA: 0.297 — ISO: 0.076 — wRC+: 88


Colorado

Charlie Blackmon (FD: $3800, DK: $4400)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 162 — wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.188 — wRC+: 126
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 648 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.158 — wRC+: 107

Analysis: Since the start of 2014, Ryan Vogelsong has given up a .368 wOBA to left-handed hitters. The right-handed bats in the Rockies’ lineup are also in play, but I LOVE the lefties from Colorado tonight. Blackmon has a .383 wOBA and a .188 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and he is also a threat to steal a base every time he gets on.

Secondary Plays:

Troy Tulowitzki (FD: $4500, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 137 — wOBA: 0.279 — ISO: 0.146 — wRC+: 57
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 375 — wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.207 — wRC+: 144

Carlos Gonzalez (FD: $3300, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 145 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.179 — wRC+: 76
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 281 — wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.220 — wRC+: 96

Nolan Arenado (FD: $3900, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 147 — wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.282 — wRC+: 109
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 467 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.188 — wRC+: 99

Wilin Rosario (FD: $3700, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 57 — wOBA: 0.267 — ISO: 0.188 — wRC+: 49
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 410 — wOBA: 0.283 — ISO: 0.110 — wRC+: 61


Chicago Cubs at Arizona – 9:40 PM EST

Chicago Cubs Arizona
cubsmlb Jon Lester arizonamlb Josh Collmenter
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC (-132) 8.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.271 0.736 0.324 0.250 SP vs. Left 0.289 0.762 0.333 0.12
SP vs. Right 0.231 0.631 0.28 0.242 SP vs. Right 0.217 0.664 0.289 0.181
Batter Splits CHC BvP CHC vs R Batter Splits ARI BvP ARI vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jon Lester (FD: $9300, DK: $9000)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 48 — SIERA: 3.42 — K Rate: 22.4% — K/9: 8.69 — BB Rate: 6.2% — FB Rate: 28.1% — HR/FB: 12.2%
2014: IP: 219 — SIERA: 3.09 — K Rate: 24.9% — K/9: 9.01 — BB Rate: 5.4% — FB Rate: 37.0% — HR/FB: 7.2%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.332 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 11)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.66 (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Lester is an intriguing tournament option tonight against the Diamondbacks. It’s not the best matchup on the board, but Lester’s price is depressed and he always bring a high-strikeout rate to the table. He has a 3.42 SIERA on the season with a K/9 of 8.7. There are better options for cash games, but Lester is a very sneaky tournament option tonight.

Pitcher Rating:73.8


Josh Collmenter (FD: $6200, DK: $4700)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 47 — SIERA: 4.70 — K Rate: 11.1% — K/9: 4.21 — BB Rate: 3.0% — FB Rate: 36.5% — HR/FB: 11.5%
2014: IP: 179 — SIERA: 4.18 — K Rate: 16.0% — K/9: 5.77 — BB Rate: 5.4% — FB Rate: 39.9% — HR/FB: 8.3%

Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 25.8% (Rank: 30)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 4.00 (Rank: 1)

Analysis: With all of the great pitching options on the mound tonight, Collmenter can safely be avoided. He is only averaging 4.2 strikeouts per nine innings and he draws a difficult matchup against a very potent Cubs’ offense.

Pitcher Rating:36.0

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo (FD: $4400, DK: $5300)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 178 — wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.250 — wRC+: 153
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 616 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.253 — wRC+: 149

Analysis: I wanted to put Kris Bryant here, as he has been red hot, but the splits favor Rizzo. Since the start of 2014, Josh Collmenter has given up a .333 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Rizzo has great power against right-handed pitching and he sees a sizable ballpark boost going from Petco to Chase Field.

Secondary Plays:

Kris Bryant (FD: $4000, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 141 — wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 152

Dexter Fowler (FD: $3600, DK: $4900)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 174 — wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 117
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 505 — wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.116 — wRC+: 114

Miguel Montero (FD: $2900, DK: $3200)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 112 — wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.157 — wRC+: 127
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 560 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.131 — wRC+: 100


Arizona

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt (FD: $4900, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 171 — wOBA: 0.515 — ISO: 0.406 — wRC+: 226
2014 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 479 — wOBA: 0.470 — ISO: 0.205 — wRC+: 201


San Diego at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST

San Diego LA Dodgers
sandiegomlb Andrew Cashner ladodgersmlb Zack Greinke
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD (-168) 6.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.247 0.731 0.317 0.199 SP vs. Left 0.237 0.626 0.278 0.232
SP vs. Right 0.234 0.599 0.266 0.202 SP vs. Right 0.229 0.637 0.281 0.255
Batter Splits SD BvP SD vs R Batter Splits LA BvP LA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Cashner (FD: $8100, DK: $8100)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 50 — SIERA: 3.27 — K Rate: 23.9% — K/9: 9.18 — BB Rate: 6.1% — FB Rate: 32.9% — HR/FB: 17.0%
2014: IP: 123 — SIERA: 3.70 — K Rate: 18.4% — K/9: 6.79 — BB Rate: 5.7% — FB Rate: 31.4% — HR/FB: 6.0%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.359 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 7)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.90 (Rank: 6)

Analysis: Cashner has pitched well this season, but the Dodgers have had his number. In their first two meetings this season, he has given up seven earned runs including four by the way of the long ball. The Dodgers are ranked first in wOBA (.359) against right-handed pitching and Cashner is one of the biggest underdogs on the board.

Pitcher Rating:56.3


Zack Greinke (FD: $9900, DK: $10400)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 53 — SIERA: 3.54 — K Rate: 21.6% — K/9: 7.43 — BB Rate: 5.4% — FB Rate: 37.0% — HR/FB: 7.4%
2014: IP: 202 — SIERA: 2.87 — K Rate: 25.2% — K/9: 9.21 — BB Rate: 5.2% — FB Rate: 28.5% — HR/FB: 11.9%

San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 24)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.86 (Rank: 10)

Analysis: Greinke is one of the top pitching options on the board tonight. On the season, he has 3.54 SIERA with a K/9 of 7.4. He has a terrific track record at Dodger Stadium and he draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Padres. San Diego is ranked 22nd in wOBA (.298) and 24th in strikeout rate (21.5%) against right-handed pitching this season. He should pitch deep into this game and put his team in line for the win.

Pitcher Rating:91.6

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

NONE


LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez (FD: $4200, DK: $4800)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 166 — wOBA: 0.465 — ISO: 0.313 — wRC+: 201
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 660 — wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.236 — wRC+: 150

Analysis: BVP! BVP! For you golf fans out there, no I’m not talking about Bo Van Pelt. I’m talking about Batter vs. Pitcher. One of the more hotly-debated topics in daily fantasy. Gonzalez is the BvP king tonight, as he is 10-for-24 with four home runs against Andrew Cashner in his career. The splits are also in his favor, as he has an impressive .465 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Secondary Plays:

Joc Pederson (FD: $3600, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 162 — wOBA: 0.416 — ISO: 0.343 — wRC+: 168
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 38 — wOBA: 0.293 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: 88


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious