MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 22 - Page Two

Cincinnati at Cleveland – 7:10 PM EST

Cincinnati Cleveland
cincinnatimlb Mike Leake clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE (-152) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.28 0.798 0.348 0.142 SP vs. Left 0.197 0.539 0.243 0.273
SP vs. Right 0.229 0.654 0.287 0.199 SP vs. Right 0.245 0.642 0.281 0.264
Batter Splits CIN BvP CIN vs R Batter Splits CLE BvP CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Leake (FD: $6900, DK: $6600)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 54 — SIERA: 4.21 — K Rate: 13.6% — K/9: 4.94 — BB Rate: 5.9% — FB Rate: 27.6% — HR/FB: 18.8%
2014: IP: 214 — SIERA: 3.51 — K Rate: 18.2% — K/9: 6.89 — BB Rate: 5.5% — FB Rate: 26.4% — HR/FB: 13.1%

Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 18.3% (Rank: 6)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.92 (Rank: 4)

Analysis: Leake is in a bad spot tonight. His biggest weakness is left-handed hitters and the Indians’ lineup if full of batters that can hit from the left side of the plate. Since the start of 2014, Leake has given up a .348 wOBA to left-handed hitters. He can safely be avoided against an Indians’ offense that is ranked 11th in wOBA (.316) and sixth in strikeout rate (18.3%) against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:46.1


Carlos Carrasco (FD: $8700, DK: $8800)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 43 — SIERA: 2.77 — K Rate: 27.9% — K/9: 10.59 — BB Rate: 5.5% — FB Rate: 29.7% — HR/FB: 11.4%
2014: IP: 134 — SIERA: 2.58 — K Rate: 26.5% — K/9: 9.40 — BB Rate: 5.5% — FB Rate: 27.7% — HR/FB: 7.1%

Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 17)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.74 (Rank: 23)

Analysis: Carrasco has as much upside as any pitcher taking the mound tonight, yet he is considerably cheaper than some of the other aces. On the season, he has a 2.77 SIERA with an impressive K/9 of 10.6. He doesn’t walk many batters and he produces a lot of groundball outs. He draws a favorable matchup against the Reds, who are below the major league average in both wOBA (.302) and strikeout rate (20.2%) against right-handed pitching. Dollar for dollar, Carrasco may be the top pitching option on the board tonight.

Pitcher Rating:88.5

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Joey Votto (FD: $3400, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 168 — wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.255 — wRC+: 144
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 272 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.093 — wRC+: 116


Cleveland

Michael Brantley (FD: $4700, DK: $5000)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 151 — wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.169 — wRC+: 142
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 676 — wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.197 — wRC+: 164

Analysis: An Indians’ looks awfully enticing tonight if you want to differentiate yourself from all of the Coors Field stacks. Mike Leake has given up a .348 wOBA to left-handed hitters since the start of 2014 and the Indians are a team that makes great contact. Brantley is my favorite play of the bunch, as he has a .371 wOBA and a .169 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He also has the unique combination of speed on the bases and power in his bat.

Secondary Plays:

Jason Kipnis (FD: $4600, DK: $4900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 189 — wOBA: 0.462 — ISO: 0.198 — wRC+: 205
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 555 — wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.117 — wRC+: 106

Carlos Santana (FD: $3600, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 161 — wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.182 — wRC+: 125
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 660 — wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.195 — wRC+: 121


LA Angels at Boston – 7:10 PM EST

LA Angels Boston
laangelsmlb Garrett Richards bostonmlb Rick Porcello
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS (-106) 8
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.188 0.51 0.233 0.243 SP vs. Left 0.262 0.736 0.321 0.155
SP vs. Right 0.202 0.534 0.25 0.236 SP vs. Right 0.267 0.695 0.306 0.175
Batter Splits ANA BvP ANA vs R Batter Splits BOS BvP BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Garrett Richards (FD: $9000, DK: $9600)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 39 — SIERA: 3.94 — K Rate: 23.1% — K/9: 8.24 — BB Rate: 10.9% — FB Rate: 36.0% — HR/FB: 2.8%
2014: IP: 168 — SIERA: 3.20 — K Rate: 24.2% — K/9: 8.75 — BB Rate: 7.5% — FB Rate: 28.0% — HR/FB: 3.9%

Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 16.7% (Rank: 3)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 4.00 (Rank: 2)

Analysis: Much like Felix Hernandez, Richards would typically be in play if there weren’t so many other great pitching options available tonight. Richards draws a tough matchup against the Red Sox in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Boston does not strike out often against right-handed pitching and they are currently ranked second in pitches per plate appearance. It looks like we may have to wait one more start before unleashing Richards as a daily fantasy play.

Pitcher Rating:67.7


Rick Porcello (FD: $7900, DK: $7100)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 50 — SIERA: 3.76 — K Rate: 20.4% — K/9: 7.82 — BB Rate: 6.0% — FB Rate: 36.8% — HR/FB: 14.0%
2014: IP: 204 — SIERA: 3.88 — K Rate: 15.4% — K/9: 5.67 — BB Rate: 4.9% — FB Rate: 29.0% — HR/FB: 9.5%

LA Angels of Anaheim vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.272 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 16)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.73 (Rank: 25)

Analysis: Porcello has pitched well this season with a 3.76 SIERA and a career-high K/9 of 7.8. He has never been known as an elite strikeout pitcher, but he certainly peaks our interest now that he is striking more batters out. He draws a favorable matchup against the Angels tonight, who are ranked dead last in wOBA (.272) against right-handed pitching this season. While this is a decent spot for Porcello, he’s not even in my list of top ten pitching options tonight.

Pitcher Rating:58.3

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Mike Trout (FD: $5200, DK: $5600)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 175 — wOBA: 0.408 — ISO: 0.280 — wRC+: 170
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 705 — wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.283 — wRC+: 168

Analysis: Trout is one of those players that can single-handedly be the difference between winning and losing a daily fantasy league. He has as much upside as any hitter in baseball and he gets a ballpark boost tonight playing in Fenway Park. His matchup against Rick Porcello isn’t ideal, but Trout has a .408 wOBA and a .280 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Secondary Plays:

Kole Calhoun (FD: $3000, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 159 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.148 — wRC+: 113
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 537 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.190 — wRC+: 129


Boston

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

David Ortiz (FD: $3100, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 160 — wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.244 — wRC+: 162
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 602 — wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.248 — wRC+: 131


Baltimore at Miami – 7:10 PM EST

Baltimore Miami
baltimoremlb Ubaldo Jimenez miamimlb Henderson Alvarez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL (-110) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.232 0.744 0.337 0.19 SP vs. Left 0.28 0.702 0.308 0.146
SP vs. Right 0.227 0.637 0.289 0.248 SP vs. Right 0.264 0.706 0.313 0.13
Batter Splits BAL BvP BAL vs R Batter Splits MIA BvP MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ubaldo Jimenez (FD: $7200, DK: $7000)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 40 — SIERA: 3.21 — K Rate: 23.9% — K/9: 8.41 — BB Rate: 7.6% — FB Rate: 24.3% — HR/FB: 11.5%
2014: IP: 125 — SIERA: 4.61 — K Rate: 21.0% — K/9: 8.33 — BB Rate: 13.9% — FB Rate: 36.7% — HR/FB: 10.9%

Miami Marlins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 23)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.76 (Rank: 19)

Analysis: Jimenez continues to pitch well for the Orioles, but if you are like me, you are just waiting for the wheels to come off the wagon. He hasn’t pitched this well since for a few seasons. That said, if we trust the numbers, he makes an intriguing tournament option tonight. On the season, he has a 3.21 SIERA with a K/9 of 8.4. He draws one of the better pitching matchups on the schedule, as the Marlins are ranked 25th in wOBA (.294) and 23rd in strikeout rate (21.1%) against right-handed pitching this season. It’s a good spot for Ubaldo, but limit his exposure to tournaments.

Pitcher Rating:62.0


Henderson Alvarez (FD: $6300, DK: $5600)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 17 — SIERA: 3.94 — K Rate: 9.1% — K/9: 3.63 — BB Rate: 3.9% — FB Rate: 17.2% — HR/FB: 9.1%
2014: IP: 187 — SIERA: 3.70 — K Rate: 14.4% — K/9: 5.34 — BB Rate: 4.3% — FB Rate: 24.3% — HR/FB: 9.5%

Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 23.2% (Rank: 28)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.75 (Rank: 20)

Analysis: Alvarez is not a high-strikeout pitcher, which basically takes him out of consideration tonight with all of the aces that are on the schedule. Alvarez averaged 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings last season and that number is down to 3.6 per nine innings this season. He can safely be avoided against the Orioles, who are ranked fourth in wOBA (.327) against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:44.0

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Chris Davis (FD: $3100, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 151 — wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.231 — wRC+: 97
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 525 — wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.199 — wRC+: 97

Jimmy Paredes (FD: $3300, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 3B/OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.440 — ISO: 0.293 — wRC+: 186
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 65 — wOBA: 0.303 — ISO: 0.132 — wRC+: 91


Miami

Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $4500, DK: $5100)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 179 — wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.286 — wRC+: 128
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 638 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.262 — wRC+: 150

Analysis: If you aren’t buying into Ubaldo’s success, then you might want to buy in on Stanton tonight. Giancarlo’s price is down on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he has had great success against both left and right-handed pitchers this season. He currently boasts a .362 wOBA and a .286 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Secondary Plays:

Dee Gordon (FD: $3500, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 179 — wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.094 — wRC+: 145
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 650 — wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.090 — wRC+: 99


Oakland at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM EST

Oakland Tampa Bay
oaklandmlb Scott Kazmir tampabaymlb Chris Archer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBR (-129) 7
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.259 0.673 0.301 0.213 SP vs. Left 0.221 0.602 0.274 0.23
SP vs. Right 0.222 0.64 0.286 0.218 SP vs. Right 0.241 0.655 0.296 0.223
Batter Splits OAK BvP OAK vs R Batter Splits TB BvP TB vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Scott Kazmir (FD: $8500, DK: $7600)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 49 — SIERA: 3.71 — K Rate: 23.7% — K/9: 8.88 — BB Rate: 9.2% — FB Rate: 33.6% — HR/FB: 11.1%
2014: IP: 190 — SIERA: 3.61 — K Rate: 21.1% — K/9: 7.75 — BB Rate: 6.4% — FB Rate: 37.3% — HR/FB: 7.8%

Tampa Bay Rays vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 24.8% (Rank: 27)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.90 (Rank: 5)

Analysis: Kazmir has pitched well this season with a 3.71 SIERA and a K/9 of 8.9. He can struggle with his command at times though, as evidenced by his walk rate of 9.2%. It’s not that Kazmir is a bad option tonight, but there are better plays in his price range, specifically Carlos Carrasco.

Pitcher Rating:61.3


Chris Archer (FD: $9100, DK: $8600)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 54 — SIERA: 2.76 — K Rate: 28.8% — K/9: 10.21 — BB Rate: 7.4% — FB Rate: 25.4% — HR/FB: 8.8%
2014: IP: 194 — SIERA: 3.80 — K Rate: 21.1% — K/9: 8.00 — BB Rate: 8.8% — FB Rate: 31.1% — HR/FB: 6.9%

Oakland Athletics vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 17.0% (Rank: 4)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.89 (Rank: 7)

Analysis: Archer has pitched well this season with a 2.76 SIERA and a K/9 of 10.2. When he is on, there isn’t a whole lot that opponents can do. He draws a difficult matchup tonight though, as the A’s are ranked 7th or better in wOBA, strikeout rate, and pitches per plate appearance against right-handed pitching. With limited strikeout potential, it makes sense to look elsewhere at pitcher tonight.

Pitcher Rating:72.1

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Josh Reddick (FD: $3600, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 151 — wOBA: 0.445 — ISO: 0.262 — wRC+: 193
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 396 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.239 — wRC+: 140

Stephen Vogt (FD: $3500, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 142 — wOBA: 0.437 — ISO: 0.306 — wRC+: 188
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 287 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.148 — wRC+: 119


Tampa Bay

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Evan Longoria (FD: $3200, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 169 — wOBA: 0.476 — ISO: 0.148 — wRC+: 217
2014 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 700 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.175 — wRC+: 132

Steven Souza (FD: $3200, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 162 — wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.267 — wRC+: 159
2014 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 26 — wOBA: 0.836 — ISO: 1.000 — wRC+: 455


Milwaukee at Atlanta – 7:35 PM EST

Milwaukee Atlanta
milwaukeemlb Wily Peralta atlantamlb Alex Wood
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL (-131) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.303 0.846 0.368 0.178 SP vs. Left 0.249 0.649 0.291 0.236
SP vs. Right 0.231 0.645 0.291 0.177 SP vs. Right 0.25 0.686 0.306 0.221
Batter Splits MIL BvP MIL vs L Batter Splits ATL BvP ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Wily Peralta (FD: $6800, DK: $7300)

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 50 — SIERA: 3.96 — K Rate: 15.4% — K/9: 5.94 — BB Rate: 5.6% — FB Rate: 28.3% — HR/FB: 17.0%
2014: IP: 198 — SIERA: 3.73 — K Rate: 18.4% — K/9: 6.98 — BB Rate: 7.3% — FB Rate: 27.6% — HR/FB: 13.9%

Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 13)
Strikeout Rate: 15.5% (Rank: 2)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.74 (Rank: 22)

Analysis: Peralta is having a decent season thus far, posting a 3.96 SIERA with a K/9 of 5.9. His strikeouts are down a bit this year though, which is a concern. He has had a slight dip in velocity, but his swinging strike rate is close to that of year’s past. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Braves, who have struck out at the 2nd-lowest rate against right-handed pitching of any team in baseball this season.

Pitcher Rating:44.3


Alex Wood (FD: $7700, DK: $8000)

Editor’s Note: Alex Wood has been scratched from tonight’s start due to illness. Left-hander Eric Stults will start in his place.

Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 47 — SIERA: 4.25 — K Rate: 15.8% — K/9: 6.13 — BB Rate: 7.9% — FB Rate: 27.5% — HR/FB: 4.9%
2014: IP: 171 — SIERA: 3.16 — K Rate: 24.5% — K/9: 8.91 — BB Rate: 6.5% — FB Rate: 34.6% — HR/FB: 10.0%

Milwaukee Brewers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.269 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 25.3% (Rank: 29)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.74 (Rank: 24)

Analysis: Wood hasn’t had the same success that he did in 2014. On the season, he owns a 4.25 SIERA with a K/9 of 6.1. He is walking more batters, while striking out less. He draws a favorable matchup against the Brewers, but Milwaukee’s offense has been better in recent weeks. Wood is a sneaky tournament play, but he’s not on my radar in cash games.

Pitcher Rating:71.1

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Carlos Gomez (FD: $4200, DK: $4800)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 101 — wOBA: 0.238 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 43
2014 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 644 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.218 — wRC+: 132

Analysis: Gomez has not fared well against southpaws this season, but he had a .367 wOBA and a .218 ISO against left-handed pitching last season. He has great power and good speed on the bases. He draws a favorable matchup against Alex Wood, who has given up a .367 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Braun (FD: $4400, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 158 — wOBA: 0.264 — ISO: 0.036 — wRC+: 61
2014 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 580 — wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.236 — wRC+: 124


Atlanta

Freddie Freeman (FD: $3300, DK: $4000)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 171 — wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.190 — wRC+: 142
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 708 — wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.188 — wRC+: 150

Analysis: The Braves’ offense went on a tear in the 7th and 8th innings of last night’s game against the Brewers. They may be able to keep it going tonight against Wily Peralta, who has given up a .368 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season. Freeman has always hit right-handed pitching well and as I’ve mentioned in the past, he’s one of the safest cash game plays on the board.

Secondary Plays:

Jace Peterson (FD: $2800, DK: $3300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 137 — wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: 0.067 — wRC+: 91
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 58 — wOBA: 0.080 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: -56

Todd Cunningham (FD: $2200, DK: $2600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 19 — wOBA: 0.547 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 252


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious