MLB Grind Down: Friday, October 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-10-11 00:27:14

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Kansas City at Baltimore

Kansas City					Baltimore
James Shields		Vegas Moneyline			Chris Tillman		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BAL (-123)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.256	0.698	0.309	19.10%	SP vs. Left	0.247	0.670	0.299	17.10%
SP vs. Right	0.250	0.706	0.310	19.20%	SP vs. Right	0.223	0.672	0.299	17.40%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• James Shields – Shields has a terrific nickname: “Big Game” James. Unfortunately, he hasn’t exactly lived up to the nickname. In eight career postseason starts, Shields has posted a 4.96 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and only 37 strikeouts over 45 innings of work. That trend has continued this season with two mediocre starts in the playoffs. Call me crazy, but I want nothing to do with any pitcher facing this Orioles offense. The Orioles led the majors in home runs this season and have really hit the ball well so far in the postseason. Shields is a small underdog here and is actually my least favorite pitching option of the four starters in this slate of games. Rating = 5.5

• Chris Tillman – Tillman isn’t the highest strikeout pitcher in baseball (6.5 strikeouts per 9 innings), but he has gotten the job done this season with a 3.34 ERA. The peripheral pitching stats don’t quite line up with his low ERA, but at this point in the season, I’m not expecting regression to hit. The line for this game opened as a pick ‘em, but now the Orioles are a -125 favorite. Tillman is facing the Royals, who strike out fewer times than any team in baseball, but they also draw very few walks. Tillman has had some success against the Royals in the past and should be able to give his team at least six strong innings and hopefully be in line for the win. Rating = 6.5

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Eric Hosmer – Hosmer has been the Royals’ MVP so far in the postseason. He’s 7-for-14 with four extra base hits while drawing five walks. He’s come up with huge hit after huge hit and should be considered the top first baseman on the board, as he squares off against Chris Tillman in the HR-friendly Camden Yards. With only two games, don’t be afraid to take a pitcher and a couple of hitters against him.

Salvador Perez – Even though Tillman is a recommended play, there are only two games, so you don’t have to avoid taking a couple of Royals hitters against him. Perez has hit right-handed pitching well this season with a .270 batting average. He’s also come up with some very timely hits for the Royals. If you don’t want to spend up for Posey, Perez is a nice value play at catcher.

Additional Plays: Alex Gordon, Nori Aoki

Baltimore

Nelson Cruz – Cruz has been terrific for the Orioles all season long. It’s hard to believe that they signed him for such a bargain. In the playoffs, Cruz is 6-for-12 with two HRs and five RBIs. As mentioned above, James Shields has put up some pretty mediocre numbers in the postseason and should have his hands full with the Orioles who hit more HRs than any team in baseball.

Jonathan Schoop – Schoop is not your typical second baseman. He’s a monster of a human being that hits for power. He was terrific in the series against the Tigers and will look to keep it going tonight against James Shields and the Royals. Even though he bats at the bottom of the order, he has more upside than any other second baseman on the board.

Additional Plays: Adam Jones, Steve Pearce, Nick Markakis

San Francisco at St. Louis

San Francisco					St. Louis
Madison Bumgarner		Vegas Moneyline			Adam Wainwright		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		STL (-123)			RIGHT		6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.215	0.539	0.239	31.0%	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.625	0.277	20.70%
SP vs. Right	0.241	0.684	0.301	23.5%	SP vs. Right	0.199	0.542	0.243	19.30%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Madison Bumgarner – This game is a battle of two of the top pitchers in the National League. While Adam Wainwright is a small favorite here, I’m giving Bumgarner the slight edge because he has a much higher strikeout potential and he’s currently in better form. On the season, Bumgarner owns a strikeout rate of 9.1 batters per 9 innings and he’s pitched well in both of his posteseason starts. Meanwhile, Wainwright struggled in the second half of the season and was knocked around in his first postseason start. Bumgarner is a big-game pitcher looking to put the Giants up 1-0 in the NLCS. Pay up a bit more and take Bumgarner over Wainwright. Rating = 8

Salaries: $10000 FD, $21750 DD, $12000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $22150 FTD

• Adam Wainwright – Right when it looked like Wainwright was back to his early season form, he went out and gave up six earned runs to the Dodgers in less than five innings of work. His strikeouts have been down since the All-Star Break, and at this point, he’s a risky fantasy option considering how well the Giants play in the postseason. I have him ranked as the second best pitcher in this slate of games (next to Bumgarner), but I’m not going to be using him in any leagues, as the Bumgarner/Tillman combination looks like the best play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 7

Salaries: $10600 FD, $21500 DD, $11200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $18950 FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Buster Posey – The catcher position is extremely thin at this point in the season. It may be a good idea to pay up for the best option on the board. Posey has hit right-handed pitching well this season with a .314 batting average and a .366 wOBA. As mentioned above, Wainwright has been very hittable in the second half of the season and I’ll be targeting a few hitters against him.

Pablo Sandoval – Sandoval’s 14-game postseason hitting streak came to an end last game, but the Giants still managed to finish off the Nationals. Sandoval has arguably the best playoff pedigree of any hitter still standing. At his price, he will likely be the most popular play at third base.

Additional Plays: Hunter Pence, Joe Panik

St. Louis

Jhonny Peralta – J-HONNY Peralta draws a tough matchup against Madison Bumgarner, but at this point in the season, you are going to find very few favorable matchups. Peralta has hit left-handed pitching well all season with a .384 wOBA, and of his 30 hits against lefties, 16 went for extra bases.

Additional Plays: Yadier Molina, Randal Grichuk