MLB Grind Down: Friday, October 3rd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
San Francisco at Washington
| San Francisco | Washington | ||||||||
| Jake Peavy | Vegas Moneyline | Stephen Strasburg | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-178) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.245 | 0.766 | 0.334 | 17.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.653 | 0.287 | 24.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.719 | 0.317 | 19.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.250 | 0.687 | 0.302 | 30.70% |
| Batter Splits | SFG BvP  | SFG vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jake Peavy – The first game of the day is already underway, but there are late leagues and the players from this game are still available on sites with late swap. Peavy takes the mound for the Giants tonight in the first game of the NLDS. Peavy finished the season strong with a 2.54 ERA over the second half of the season. He owns a respectable strikeout rate of 7.0 per 9 innings. That said, he is facing a very talented Nationals lineup and is a huge underdog. Run support will likely be limited with Strasburg on the mound. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $8100 FD, $15850 DD, $8700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg has been dominant at Nationals Park this season. He owns a 2.56 ERA at home with an elite strikeout rate of 10.8 per 9 innings. He’s also held opponents to a .229 batting average. Strasburg is one of the biggest favorites on the board and he’s pitched well against the Giants in the past. Strasburg is second only to Clayton Kershaw in this slate of games. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $10000 FD, $20900 DD, $11600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
Even on a short slate, you can safely avoid all Giants tonight against Stephen Strasburg who has held hitters from both sides of the plate under a .305 wOBA this season.
Washington
Adam LaRoche – LaRoche has the best track record of any Nationals hitter against Jake Peavy. In his career, he is 5/14 with 3 home runs and an additional 3 walks drawn. Peavy has also given up a .334 wOBA to hitters from the left side of the plate.
Anthony Rendon – Rendon has had a terrific season. He typically flies under the radar because he is one of the more expensive 2B/3B on the board, but he draws a nice matchup against Peavy. On the season, Rendon has a .361 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Additional Plays: Bryce Harper, Ian Desmond
Noto’s Prediction: Washington 5 – San Francisco 2
St. Louis at LA Dodgers
| St. Louis | LA Dodgers | ||||||||
| Adam Wainwright | Vegas Moneyline | Clayton Kershaw | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | LAD (-200) | LEFT | 5.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.243 | 0.625 | 0.277 | 20.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.190 | 0.477 | 0.215 | 31.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.199 | 0.542 | 0.243 | 19.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.195 | 0.531 | 0.237 | 32.00% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs L | Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LAD vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Adam Wainwright – Wainwright quieted the critics with a terrific month of September in which he posted a 1.38 ERA with a K/9 of 6.9. The strikeouts are still down a bit, but at least he’s coming into tonight’s game with good form. There are a few red flags with Wainwright tonight though. First, he’s facing a Dodgers offense that was ranked 4th in wOBA vs. right-handed pitching. Second, he’s likely going to see very limited run supports with Kershaw on the mound. And finally, his price has come up across the industry. Strasburg is the much better play at this price point. Rating 6.5
Salaries: $10600 FD, $21450 DD, $11500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Clayton Kershaw – As usual, Kershaw is the top pitching option on the board. He’s been dominant all season long with a 1.77 ERA and an elite strikeout rate of 10.8 batters per 9 innings. Kershaw produced a career-high 52% ground ball rate with a career low walk rate of 1.4 batters per 9 innings. Basically, there isn’t a single pitching statistic that he doesn’t excel at. Even though the Cardinals are typically a great October baseball team, Kershaw should mow through this lineup in another dominant performance. Rating = 9.5
Salaries: $12800 FD, $22750 DD, $14800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
You can safely avoid all Cardinals tonight against the best pitcher in baseball.
LA Dodgers
Adrian Gonzalez – This isn’t an ideal matchup, but that’s what happens in playoff baseball. There are very few matchups that really stand out. Wainwright has held left-handed hitters to a .277 wOBA this season. That said, Gonzalez has mashed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .303 batting average and a .384 wOBA.
Matt Kemp – Kemp is very quietly having a terrific season. There are so many big names on this Dodgers roster that he often goes overlooked in daily fantasy. Kemp has crushed right-handed pitching with a .298 batting average and a .382 wOBA. He used to be their most clutch hitter and I expect a breakout performance from him in the playoffs.
Additional Plays: Dee Gordon, Yasiel Puig
Noto’s Prediction: L.A. Dodgers 4 – St. Louis 1
Kansas City at LA Angels
| Kansas City | LA Angels | ||||||||
| Yordano Ventura | Vegas Moneyline | Matt Shoemaker | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | LAA (-131) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.229 | 0.642 | 0.288 | 19.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.701 | 0.308 | 20.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.249 | 0.704 | 0.316 | 21.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.218 | 0.610 | 0.271 | 25.30% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | Batter Splits | LAA BvP | LAA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Yordano Ventura – Ventura takes the mound for the Royals who continue to pull off big win after big win. To back up their win in the Wildcard game with a win against the Angels in Anaheim was very impressive. We’ll see if they can continue this run tonight with Ventura on the mound who almost cost them the Wildcard game. Ventura pitched well this season with a 3.20 ERA and a K/9 of 7.8. The red flag with Ventura is his command as he has walked an average of 3.4 batters per 9 innings. That combined with the fact that he looked extremely nervous in the Wildcard game puts him a GPP play at best. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $8800 FD, $16600 DD, $8400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Matt Shoemaker – Shoemaker has been dealing with a oblique injury, but it sounds like he is healthy enough to pitch and with a potential 3-man rotation, he may be the guy that pitches in a potential Game 5. Shoemaker has had a tremendous rookie season. He is sporting a 3.02 ERA with a K/9 of 8.2. Shoemaker keeps his walks down which allows him to pitch deeper into games. While the Royals strike out fewer than any team in baseball, Shoemaker should still be in the mix for 5+ K’s and he has a great chance of picking up the win. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $8300 FD, $15650 DD, $8800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Lorenzo Cain – The sample size is extremely small, but Cain has hit Shoemaker well this season going 4/6 with 2 XBH’s and 2 RBI’s. Cain has really excelled ever since the Royals made him a permanent home in the 3-hole. Cain has some pop in his bat and is also a great source of speed (28 stolen bases this season).
Eric Hosmer – Hosmer was one of the heroes in the Wildcard game and may have the best matchup in terms of splits. Shoemaker has given up a much higher wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate and Hosmer is sporting a .321 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Additional Plays: Alex Gordon
LA Angels
Kole Calhoun – Calhoun has been one of the best outfield plays in baseball whenever he faces a right-handed pitcher. On the season he is sporting a .348 wOBA with 15 of his 17 HR’s coming against righties. Calhoun is affordable and is one of the top plays at any position when you factor in his price.
Mike Trout – Trout was quiet in Game 1 as he only managed to draw a walk in 5 plate appearances. He’s in a favorable spot tonight though as Ventura has given up a .316 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate. Trout is a great source of both speed (16 SB’s) and power (36 HR’s) and is the top OF play on the board if you can manage to get him in your lineups.
Additional Plays: Albert Pujols, Erick Aybar
Noto’s Prediction: L.A. Angels 4 – Kansas City 3