MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-09-12 23:05:12

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

NY Yankees at Baltimore

NY Yankees					Baltimore
Brandon McCarthy		Vegas Moneyline			Kevin Gausman		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BAL (-110)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.291	0.749	0.330	20.90%	SP vs. Left	0.254	0.721	0.321	17.20%
SP vs. Right	0.269	0.750	0.325	20.50%	SP vs. Right	0.255	0.643	0.286	19.40%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Yankees: TBD – Bryan Mitchell is currently scheduled to make the start, but regardless of who gets the nod, it will be pitching by committee with a lot of work from the bullpen. Rating = 3

• Bud Norris – Norris gets the start tonight for the Orioles in what has been a terrific 2014 season. Norris owns a 3.92 ERA (4.11 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.1. He is walking a career-low 2.7 batters per 9 innings and has really pitched at Camden Yards with a 2.88 ERA. That said, Norris has a somewhat limited upside and is facing a Yankees offense that makes great contact. The Yankees only strike out at an 18% rate against RH pitching which is one of the lowest in baseball. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Brian McCann – McCann is only batting .239 on the season, but he does have 18 HR’s and 15 doubles on his resume. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Norris who has given up a .330 wOBA to LH hitters this season. It also doesn’t hurt that this game will be played in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards.

Additional Plays: Jacoby Ellsbury

Baltimore

Nelson Cruz – The Orioles will likely be facing quite a few different pitchers tonight, so it’s hard to break down a player’s matchup against an individual pitcher. For that reason, target the hot bat of Cruz. He has 15 hits and 12 RBI’s over his last 10 games and should have ample opportunities to drive in runs.

Additional Plays: Adam Jones, J.J. Hardy, Nick Markakis

Miami at Philadelphia

Miami					Philadelphia
Henderson Alvarez		Vegas Moneyline			Cole Hamels		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PHI (-150)			LEFT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.258	0.662	0.291	15.6%	SP vs. Left	0.218	0.663	0.302	20.30%
SP vs. Right	0.280	0.746	0.330	13.9%	SP vs. Right	0.232	0.645	0.286	25.00%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs L		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Henderson Alvarez – Alvarez is a very solid real-world pitcher, but an average daily fantasy baseball pitcher because he doesn’t strike many batters out. He is only averaging 5.5 strikeouts per 9 innings. In addition to a limited upside, Alvarez has struggled a bit on the road this season with a 4.09 ERA while giving up a .352 wOBA to his opponents. Even though the Phillies are one of the worst offenses in the National League, Alvarez can be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4

• Cole Hamels – Hamels has been terrific this season with a 2.56 ERA (3.29 xFIP) and a K/9 of 8.8. The biggest improvement with Hamels this season is that he’s been able to keep the ball in the ballpark. He is giving up a career low 0.67 HR’s per 9 innings. He draws a favorable matchup against the Marlins who are ranked 23rd in road wOBA this season. The Marlins also strike out at a 25.2% rate on the road which is the highest of any team in baseball. Hamels also sees a nice matchup boost with Giancarlo Stanton out of the lineup after he was hit with a pitch in the face last night. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

Miami

It sounds like Giancarlo Stanton will be out of the lineup which really hurts this Marlins offense. If that’s the case, you can safely avoid all of the Marlins hitters.

Philadelphia

Ben Revere – Revere, much like Denard Span, is a player that is rarely targeted in daily fantasy baseball. He doesn’t have a ton of power, but he is a high OBP player with the ability to steal bases and score runs. He’s been very solid against RH pitching this season with a .294 batting average.

Additional Plays: Marlon Byrd

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh

Chicago Cubs					Pittsburgh
Tsuyoshi Wada		Vegas Moneyline			Gerrit Cole		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		PIT (-185)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.136	0.343	0.166	23.4%	SP vs. Left	0.257	0.754	0.336	21.40%
SP vs. Right	0.239	0.760	0.330	19.7%	SP vs. Right	0.250	0.714	0.318	23.20%
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Tsuyoshi Wada – Wada has pitched admirably this season, but is not a recommended fantasy option tonight. The Cubs are counting down the days until the end of the season, while the Pirates are in the midst of a heated Wildcard race. Wada is one of the biggest underdogs on the schedule tonight and is facing a Pirates offense that has been the 6th best offense in baseball over the last 30 days. Rating = 4

• Gerrit Cole – Cole owns a 3.89 ERA (3.52 xFIP) on the season with a K/9 of 8.5. He can struggle with his command at times as he has walked at least 2 batters in 4 of his last 5 starts, but his high strikeout potential and high ground ball rate (49.5%) help him get out of jams. Tonight he is facing a Cubs offense that has struggled to score runs all season. As a team, they are ranked 27th in wOBA against RH pitching while striking out at a 23.3% clip. Cole offers great upside at only $8,100. Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Avoid all Cubs tonight against Gerrit Cole.

Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen – McCutchen is always in play against LH pitching. Cutch has hit for a .328 batting average and a .423 wOBA against LH pitching in his career. He’s a nice source of both speed and power and he draws a favorable matchup against Wada who has given up a .330 wOBA to RH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Neil Walker, Josh Harrison

Tampa Bay at Toronto

Tampa Bay					Toronto
Nate Karns		Vegas Moneyline			J.A. Happ		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TOR (-140)			LEFT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.255	0.850	0.370	22.60%
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.270	0.769	0.338	18.80%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs L		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Nate Karns – Karns will be making his 4th career start tonight. In his 3 starts with the Nationals last season, he posted a 7.50 ERA. Karns owns an elite strikeout rate (over 10 K’s per 9 innings over the last 2 seasons in the minors), but he has a pedestrian 5.08 ERA at the AAA level this season. Playing against the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre isn’t exactly the ideal situation for his first start of the year. Rating = 4

• J.A. Happ – Happ has pitched pretty well this season. He owns a 4.44 ERA (4.09 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.7. He has had a few great outings this season, but has been difficult to predict on a game by game basis. Considering the matchup and the ballpark, he is an easy pitcher to avoid tonight outside of tournaments. Rating = 5

*Salaries: *

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria – Give me Longoria against an average LH pitcher in a hitter’s park any day of the week. Longoria is having another great season against southpaws batting .283 with a .363 wOBA. He draws a nice matchup tonight against J.A. Happ who has given up a .338 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate

Additional Plays: Ben Zobrist, Wil Myers

Toronto

Edwin Encarnacion – The Blue Jays are one of the top offenses to target tonight. In addition to the great ballpark, they are facing the young Nate Karns who has given up 16 HR’s in his 27 starts minor league starts this season. That’s great news for Encarnacion who has already hit 30 HR’s this season, 25 of which have come against RH pitching.

Additional Plays: Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes, Adam Lind, Dioner Navarro

Cleveland at Detroit

Cleveland					Detroit
Carlos Carrasco		Vegas Moneyline			David Price		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		DET (-160)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.214	0.569	0.256	22.5%	SP vs. Left	0.260	0.686	0.304	23.00%
SP vs. Right	0.216	0.569	0.255	28.0%	SP vs. Right	0.230	0.637	0.280	28.80%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs L		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Carlos Carrasco – This game should be all about pitching. Obviously, anything can happen in baseball, but both of these pitchers have had excellent seasons. Carrasco owns a 2.69 ERA (2.81 xFIP) with an impressive K/9 of 9.0. He has terrific velocity and pitched pretty well against the Tigers the last time that he faced them. He only gave up a single earned run and he struck out 10 batters. That said, taking pitchers against the Tigers in Detroit is not a successful long-term strategy. Rating = 5

• David Price – Price should be one of the more popular plays at pitcher tonight. He has had a couple of bad outings in his last few starts, but draws a terrific matchup against the Indians who are ranked 26th in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. Price owns an elite strikeout rate and should be able to rack up the K’s tonight at home. Price throws a ton of strikes which helps him keep his pitch count low and his strikeout totals high. Rating = 8.5

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Avoid all Indians tonight against David Price.

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are always in play at home, but for the most part the Tigers are a bit overpriced for their matchup against Carlos Carrasco.

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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