MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 5th Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-09-05 17:51:01

NY Mets at Cincinnati

NY Mets					Cincinnati
Bartolo Colon		Vegas Moneyline			Alfredo Simon		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CIN (-113)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.255	0.667	0.294	17.80%	SP vs. Left	0.247	0.719	0.314	14.80%
SP vs. Right	0.266	0.714	0.312	19.40%	SP vs. Right	0.226	0.640	0.286	16.00%
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Bartolo Colon – Colon is an easy pitcher to avoid when he is on the road. He has a 4.48 ERA away from Citi Field and his price has risen up higher than his talent level. While I do like the matchup against the Reds who seem to be content putting out a Triple-A lineup each night, I will pass on him for pitchers that I believe have more upside. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7800 FD, $14800 DD, $8700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Alfredo Simon – We were all waiting for Simon’s ERA to slowly meet his xFIP. In other words, we were waiting for his numbers to finally come crashing back down to Earth. That happened in August as he posted a 4.98 ERA while allowing opponents to hit for a .278 batting average off of him. I do like the matchup against the Mets, but this is a HR-friendly ballpark and the Mets have a few powerful bats in their lineup. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6800 FD, $12850 DD, $6700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Lucas Duda – Duda has been cold of late, but may be worth a flier as a GPP play tonight. His production is largely tied to his HR’s and he draws a nice matchup against Simon in a very HR-friendly ballpark.

Additional Plays: David Wright

Cincinnati

Devin Mesoraco – Mesoraco is one of those players that you want to target when he is seeing the ball well. He had a huge game last night against the Orioles and has 10 hits over his last 10 games. I think he could drive one of Colon’s fastballs over the left field fence tonight.

Additional Plays: Billy Hamilton

Baltimore at Tampa Bay

Baltimore					Tampa Bay
Wei-Yin Chen		Vegas Moneyline			Alex Cobb		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		TBR (-140)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.283	0.716	0.317	16.30%	SP vs. Left	0.205	0.587	0.264	21.70%
SP vs. Right	0.264	0.765	0.333	18.10%	SP vs. Right	0.248	0.649	0.296	24.60%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Wei-Yin Chen – Chen is one of those pitchers that you just seem to see on the schedule and then scroll down. He’s not a terrible pitcher by any means, but has a pretty mediocre ERA (3.83) and K-rate (6.7 per 9 innings). Tonight he faces a Rays offense that is ranked 14th in wOBA vs. LH pitching. All in all, this is a pretty average matchup for Chen. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7200 FD, $14000 DD, $8400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Alex Cobb – Cobb is an excellent value on FD tonight, but is pretty expensive on DK. When he’s pitching well, it doesn’t really matter who he is facing. On the season, Cobb owns a 2.98 ERA with a K/9 of 8.7. The tough matchup against the Orioles may take him out of consideration as a cash game play, but he’s certainly a solid option in GPP’s thanks to his strikeout potential. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8400 FD, $16400 DD, $10400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles hit well on the road, but there aren’t any individual players that stand out tonight against Alex Cobb who has held both LH and RH hitters under a .300 wOBA this season.

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria – Longo has a .367 wOBA against LH pitching this season and Chen has given up a .334 wOBA to RH hitters. The wOBA machine likes Longo so add him to the long list of viable options at 3B tonight.

Additional Plays: Ben Zobrist

Toronto at Boston

Toronto					Boston
Drew Hutchison		Vegas Moneyline			Clay Buchholz		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TOR (-150)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.259	0.812	0.354	19.70%	SP vs. Left	0.289	0.809	0.360	16.00%
SP vs. Right	0.222	0.606	0.270	23.60%	SP vs. Right	0.276	0.747	0.327	19.40%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Drew Hutchison – Hutchison has been very good in his last 2 starts. He’s only given up a single earned run while striking out a combined 16 batters. He owns an elite strikeout rate (8.2 per 9 innings), but is one of the cheapest pitchers on the board. I’m a sucker for great upside at a bargain and I think that’s exactly what Hutchison provides tonight against the Red Sox. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6600 FD, $12200 DD, $6600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Allen Webster – Buchholz was slated to start, but Webster will get the call instead. Webster has not pitched well this season with a 6.69 ERA. He doesn’t have a high enough strikeout rate to overcome the fact that he’s giving up way too many runs. Avoid him tonight against the Blue Jays who are the #1 ranked team against RH pitching this season. Rating = 2

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Adam Lind – The Blue Jays are one of my favorite teams to stack tonight. I love the matchup against Webster who has struggled with hitters from both sides of the plate. Lind earns the honors as the featured play thanks to his extremely cheap price tag on both FD and DK. He leads the AL in batting average against RH pitching and should add to it tonight.

Additional Plays: Jose Reyes, Joey Bautista, Melky Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion

Boston

David Ortiz – Fresh off of a 2-HR game last night, Ortiz is in another great matchup tonight. Hutchison is a high strikeout pitcher, but he’s had trouble with LH hitters as he has given up a .354 wOBA to lefties this season.

Additional Plays: Brock Holt

Seattle at Texas

Seattle					Texas
Hisashi Iwakuma		Vegas Moneyline			Scott Baker		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SEA (-155)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.263	0.650	0.286	18.80%	SP vs. Left	0.261	0.819	0.353	19.90%
SP vs. Right	0.205	0.548	0.242	23.40%	SP vs. Right	0.260	0.738	0.316	11.80%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Hisashi Iwakuma – Iwakuma is another pitcher that I will have some exposure to tonight in GPP’s. Most people will see the matchup against the Rangers in Globe Life Park and immediately look for other options. I think he’s very much in play though. The Rangers are ranked 24th in wOBA vs. RH pitching and they have not hit the ball well at home as they are ranked 25th in home wOBA. Iwakuma owns a solid strikeout rate and rarely walks any batters which usually keeps his pitch count low. For cash games, Strasburg is the better play, but I do like Iwakuma as a contrarian GPP play. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9200 FD, $19450 DD, $10600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Scott Baker – Baker may be my least favorite pitcher on the board tonight, well I suppose the pitchers in Coors Field have an argument. Either way, Baker is not a recommended fantasy option. He has an ERA north of 5.00 and is an extreme fly ball pitcher. Don’t be surprised to see him give up a couple of HR’s to the M’s tonight. Rating = 2

Salaries: $5300 FD, $10150 DD, $4600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Kyle Seager / Robinson Cano – I couldn’t decide between these two so they can share the spotlight as the features picks on the Mariners. Both hit RH pitching extremely well and both come into tonight’s game seeing the ball well. I love the matchup against Baker who is a flyball pitcher that struggles against LH hitters.

Additional Plays: Dustin Ackley, Austin Jackson

Texas

Avoid all Rangers tonight against Hisashi Iwakuma.

St. Louis at Milwaukee

St. Louis					Milwaukee
John Lackey		Vegas Moneyline			Mike Fiers		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIL (-120)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.240	0.693	0.305	19.80%	SP vs. Left	0.171	0.480	0.216	25.00%
SP vs. Right	0.279	0.756	0.332	19.10%	SP vs. Right	0.145	0.430	0.192	34.20%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• John Lackey – Lackey has pitched well as a member of the Cardinals pitching staff, but I don’t love the matchup against the Brewers in Miller Park. The Brewers are expecting to have Braun back in the lineup tonight after he missed a couple of games to be there for the birth of his child. The reason that I don’t like this matchup is the fact that Lackey is a reverse splits pitcher who will be facing a very RH heavy Brewers lineup. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7800 FD, $13400 DD, $8400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Mike Fiers – Fiers is striking batters out left and right this season. He’s been terrific with a 1.96 ERA and a K/9 of 9.9. It will be interesting to see what gives tonight: does Fiers shut down this hot Cardinals offense or do the Cardinals knock around Fiers a bit? Fiers is in play thanks to his high strikeout potential, but is probably best served as a GPP play. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8100 FD, $12700 DD, $10100 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

There aren’t any Cardinals hitters that stand out tonight. Fiers has looked great in his first 5 starts this season and there are better teams to target that have more favorable matchups.

Milwaukee

Jonathan Lucroy – Lucroy is only $2900 on FD which seems too cheap. I’ll be using him in all of my cash games against the reverse splits pitcher John Lackey who has given up a .332 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate this season.

Additional Plays: Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Braun

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3