MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 13th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-13 19:53:16

LA Angels at Texas

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Shoemaker (FD: $8200, DK: $7200)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.04 / xFIP: 3.28 / SIERA: 3.19
K/9: 8.21 / K%: 0.228 / BB%: 0.044
TEX vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 26 / K% Rank: 11

Analysis: Shoemaker had a mediocre outing in his first start of the season, giving up three runs while striking out five batters over six innings of work against the Mariners. He has solid strikeout potential, as he had a 8.2 K/9 last season with a strikeout rate of 22.8%. Shoemaker also has good command of his pitches, as he only walked 4.4% of the batters that he faced last season. While the ballpark isn’t the best pitcher’s park, he should get plenty of run support with Ross Detwiler on the mound opposite him. Rating = 6.5

Ross Detwiler (FD: $5000, DK: $4300)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4 / xFIP: 4.47 / SIERA: 4.13
K/9: 5.57 / K%: 0.142 / BB%: 0.077
BOS vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 21 / K% Rank: 23

Analysis: Detwiler is not a recommended fantasy option tonight. I could post a bunch of statistics as to why, but basically he’s a below-average left-handed pitcher that is facing a very talented Angels lineup in a hitter-friendly ballpark. There is more risk attached to Detwiler than there is reward, which is why he can safely be avoided in all league types tonight. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Mike Trout (FD: $5000, DK: $6600)

BA: 0.287 / wOBA: 0.402 / ISO: 0.274
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.404 / ISO: 0.283

Analysis: Trout’s price on DraftKings is rather absurd, but it may be a night to pay up for him if you can find a way to do it. He crushes left-handed pitching with a .404 wOBA and a .283 ISO in 2014. He has a ton of power in his bat, he has some speed on the bases, and he draws an extremely favorable matchup. Ross Detwiler gave up a .368 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season. I am extremely bullish on the Angels’ right-handed bats tonight.

Secondary Plays:

Albert Pujols (FD: $3800, DK: $5400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.347 / ISO: 0.201

David Freese (FD: $3000, DK: $4200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.294 / ISO: 0.110

Erick Aybar (FD: $3100, DK: $4600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.32 / ISO: 0.103

Texas

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Adrian Beltre (FD: $3900, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.366 / ISO: 0.160

Leonys Martin (FD: $2900, DK: $4400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.32 / ISO: 0.106

Oakland at Houston

Pitcher Grind Down

Scott Kazmir (FD: $8800, DK: $7200)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.55 / xFIP: 3.59 / SIERA: 3.61
K/9: 7.75 / K%: 0.211 / BB%: 0.064
HOU vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 5 / K% Rank: 27

Analysis: Kazmir got his 2015 campaign off on the right foot by striking out ten batters in his first start of the season. He threw seven shutout innings against the Rangers, while only allowing three baserunners the entire game. He draws an even better matchup tonight against the strikeout-happy Astros, who led the majors in strikeouts last season. Kazmir is one of those pitchers that can be a little hit or miss, but you have to like the upside that he provides at his price point on DraftKings. Rating = 7

Scott Feldman (FD: $6900, DK: $5600)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.74 / xFIP: 4.19 / SIERA: 4.33
K/9: 5.34 / K%: 0.14 / BB%: 0.065
OAK vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 9 / K% Rank: 3

Analysis: Feldman isn’t a terrible real-life pitcher, but he’s certainly not a great pitcher in daily fantasy. He finished last season with a 4.19 xFIP and a 5.3 K/9. His strikeout rate of 14% was only double his walk rate of 6.5%. He doesn’t offer much in terms of upside and he is pitching at Minute Maid Park, which is one of the better hitter parks in baseball. Feldman is a below-average fantasy option tonight against the A’s. Rating = 4.5

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Ben Zobrist (FD: $3200, DK: $4400)

BA: 0.272 / wOBA: 0.333 / ISO: 0.123
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.118

Analysis: Zobrist has gotten off to a quick start this season. He is 7-for-28 with five of those hits going for extra bases. He’s a switch-hitter that can hit well from both sides of the plate. His price is still playable on FanDuel at $3,200 and he draws a favorable matchup against Scott Feldman, who gave up a .314+ wOBA to batters from both sides of the plate last season.

Secondary Plays:

Stephen Vogt (FD: $2600, DK: $3700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.337 / ISO: 0.148

Ike Davis (FD: $2800, DK: $2800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.341 / ISO: 0.159

Houston

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Jose Altuve (FD: $4000, DK: $4400) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.44 / ISO: 0.151

Jed Lowrie (FD: $2800, DK: $3800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.314 / ISO: 0.112

Arizona at San Diego

Pitcher Grind Down

Rubby De La Rosa (FD: $6200, DK: $6400)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.43 / xFIP: 4.03 / SIERA: 4.21
K/9: 6.55 / K%: 0.168 / BB%: 0.079
SD vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 30 / K% Rank: 25

Analysis: De La Rosa was not sharp in his first start of the season. He gave up eight hits, six runs, and two home runs against the Giants. He’s far from being a consistent fantasy option, but he does offer decent strikeout potential and he sees a huge ballpark boost tonight in Petco, which is the best pitcher’s park in all of baseball. De La Rosa is a sizable underdog here, but may be worth a look as a tournament play in what should be a low-scoring game against the Padres. Rating = 5.5

Andrew Cashner (FD: $8000, DK: $8300)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 2.55 / xFIP: 3.53 / SIERA: 3.7
K/9: 6.79 / K%: 0.184 / BB%: 0.057
ARI vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 23 / K% Rank: 8

Analysis: Cashner would have pitched well if he wouldn’t have had to face Adrian Gonzalez in his first start of the season. Gonzalez was 3-for-3 off of Cashner with three home runs. It doesn’t matter what you do the rest of your start if you give up three home runs to a single player. Cashner should bounce back nicely tonight against the Diamondbacks. He was dominant at Petco Park last season, posting a 1.43 ERA while holding his opponents to a .187 batting average. Cashner is a -150 favorite in a game that features a low total of 6.5 runs. Rating = 8.5

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

NO SECONDARY PLAYS

San Diego

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Matt Kemp (FD: $3700, DK: $4600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.382 / ISO: 0.229

Seattle at LA Dodgers

Pitcher Grind Down

James Paxton (FD: $6700, DK: $7300)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.04 / xFIP: 3.54 / SIERA: 3.8
K/9: 7.18 / K%: 0.195 / BB%: 0.096
LAD vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 9 / K% Rank: 12

Analysis: Paxton posted a quality outing in his first start of the season, allowing two runs over six innings of work against the Angels. Paxton has decent strikeout potential, but he also has a tendency to walk quite a few batters. He draws a decent matchup against a Dodgers’ team that has more success against right-handed pitching than they do against left-handed pitching. There isn’t anything that really stands out here, but Paxton is a decent contrarian play for tournaments. Rating = 5.5

Brandon McCarthy (FD: $7800, DK: $8100)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.05 / xFIP: 2.87 / SIERA: 3
K/9: 7.88 / K%: 0.209 / BB%: 0.04
SEA vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 14 / K% Rank: 16

Analysis: After McCarthy gave up a couple of early runs, he settled in nicely in his first start with the Dodgers. He finished the game with nine strikeouts over five innings of work. McCarthy is coming off of a stellar 2014 season, posting a 2.87 xFIP with a 7.9 K/9. I expect another good season out of him this year, especially now that half of his starts will come in the pitcher-friendly Dodgers Stadium. He’s a strong SP2 tonight against the Mariners. Rating = 7.5

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Robinson Cano (FD: $4000, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.382 / ISO: 0.166

LA Dodgers

Yasiel Puig (FD: $3900, DK: $4800)

BA: 0.296 / wOBA: 0.379 / ISO: 0.185
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.335 / ISO: 0.102

Analysis: Puig has gotten off to a very slow start this season. He is only 3-for-22 through in his first five games. Maybe a matchup against the left-handed James Paxton can get him going. Puig finished 2014 with a .335 wOBA against southpaws, while Paxton gives up a considerably higher wOBA to right-handed hitters than he does to left-handed hitters.

Secondary Plays:

Howie Kendrick (FD: $3200, DK: $3800) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.364 / ISO: 0.128

Jimmy Rollins (FD: $3700, DK: $3900) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.302 / ISO: 0.125