MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-22 18:36:57

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

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Baltimore at Boston

Pitcher Grind Down

Wei-Yin Chen (FD: $7600, DK: $6700)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.54 / xFIP: 3.75 / SIERA: 3.85
K/9: 6.59 / K%: 0.176 / BB%: 0.045

BOS vs. LH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.334 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 0.224 (Rank: 21)

In his first two starts of the season, Chen has posted a 4.90 xFIP with a K/9 of 6.9. He’s not a pitcher that is going to overpower hitters, but he provides decent strikeout potential for a pitcher at his price point. The biggest issue here is his matchup against the Red Sox in Fenway Park. Boston has one of the highest team run totals on Monday night’s schedule. Unfortunately, Chen offers more risk than reward against the Red Sox. Rating = 4.5

Justin Masterson (FD: $7000, DK: $6300)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 5.88 / xFIP: 4.08 / SIERA: 4.03
K/9: 8.11 / K%: 0.196 / BB%: 0.117

BAL vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.338 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 0.255 (Rank: 30)

Masterson has had mixed results in his first two starts of the season. His 7.59 ERA may not be appealing, but his xFIP of 3.29 is much lower. Masterson has always had the ability to strike batters out, as evidenced by his K/9 of 8.1 in 2014 and his K/9 of 9.3 this season. The biggest issue with Masterson is his command. He walked 11.7% of the batters that he faced last season. If you walk enough batters, eventually it is going to cost you. In a matchup against the Orioles, Masterson is a high-risk, high-reward fantasy option. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Chris Davis (FD: $3700, DK: $4600)

Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B/3B)
BA: 0.196 / wOBA: 0.308 / ISO: 0.209
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 / ISO: 0.199

Davis gets the edge over the red-hot Adam Jones solely due to the fact that he bats from the left side of the plate. Justin Masterson gave up a .400 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Davis has six hits over his last four games and he is playing in a hitter-friendly Fenway Park that ranks as the fourth-best park for left-handed hitters.

Additional Plays:

Adam Jones (FD: $4800, DK: $5700)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.31 / ISO: 0.165

Alejandro De Aza (FD: $2900, DK: $3300)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.337 / ISO: 0.149

Boston

Hanley Ramirez (FD: $3900, DK: $5100)

Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF/SS)
BA: 0.283 / wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.165
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 / ISO: 0.194

Ramirez is the premier play in the early game of the day. He draws a favorable matchup against Wei-Yin Chen, who gave up a .326 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate last season. Meanwhile, Ramirez posted a .383 wOBA and a .194 ISO against left-handed pitching. Ramirez should see a few RBI opportunities in a game that has one of the highest run totals on the board.

Additional Plays:

Dustin Pedroia (FD: $3200, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility (FD: 2B, DK: 2B)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.322 / ISO: 0.151

Mookie Betts (FD: $3000, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.370 / ISO: 0.155

Mike Napoli (FD: $3000, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.407 / ISO: 0.173

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta (FD: $9200, DK: $9500)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 2.53 / xFIP: 2.73 / SIERA: 2.83
K/9: 9.59 / K%: 0.272 / BB%: 0.067

PIT vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.276 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 0.23 (Rank: 23)

Arrieta is an elite pitcher that doesn’t get the recognition that he deserves. He is coming off of an outstanding 2014 campaign, where he posted a 2.73 xFIP and a K/9 of 9.6. Arrieta has an elite strikeout rate (27.2%), while he’s still able to keep his walks down (6.7%). Arrieta has pitched well in his first two starts of the season against the Cardinals and then the Reds. This time he faces the Pirates in Pittsburgh. I have Arrieta ranked as one of my top pitching options on Monday, but he isn’t as big of a favorite as some of the other pitchers on the mound. Rating = 7.5

A.J. Burnett (FD: $7000, DK: $8200)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.59 / xFIP: 3.95 / SIERA: 4.00
K/9: 8 / K%: 0.203 / BB%: 0.103

CHC vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 0.233 (Rank: 24)

Burnett had two of his best seasons as a member of the Pirates and he’s gotten off to a quick start with them again this season. In his first two starts, he has posted a 1.93 xFIP with a K/9 of 11.3. The strikeouts are certainly promising and he offers great strikeout potential in a matchup against the Cubs, who have struck out at the seventh-highest rate against right-handed pitching this season. Vegas has this game set as a pick ‘em, which means a run here or there could be the difference between a win or loss for both of these pitchers. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo (FD: $4500, DK: $4700)

Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
BA: 0.286 / wOBA: 0.397 / ISO: 0.240
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 / ISO: 0.253

Rizzo has tremendous power against right-handed pitching. In 2014, he finished the season with a .391 wOBA and a .253 ISO. He draws a favorable matchup against A.J. Burnett, who has struggled against left-handed hitters. Burnett gave up a .350 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season. The one concern here is that Rizzo may be a little overpriced for his matchup in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park.

Additional Plays:

Kris Bryant (FD: $3600, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: / ISO:

Chris Coghlan (FD: $3400, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.186

Pittsburgh

NO ELITE PLAYS

Additional Plays:

Gregory Polanco (FD: $3400, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.326 / ISO: 0.123

Josh Harrison (FD: $3100, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B/OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.363 / ISO: 0.184

NY Yankees at Detroit

Pitcher Grind Down

CC Sabathia (FD: $7400, DK: $8300)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 5.28 / xFIP: 3.11 / SIERA: 3.07
K/9: 9.39 / K%: 0.23 / BB%: 0.048

DET vs. LH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 0.232 (Rank: 22)

Despite having an ERA of 5.68 in his first two starts, Sabathia has actually pitched pretty well in his first two starts of the season. He has posted a 1.73 xFIP with a K/9 of 10.7. His fantasy production has yet to show it, but if he continues to pitch the way that he has, he will provide great value at his price point. Eventually, there will be a spot to target Sabathia, but unfortunately that won’t be on Monday night against the Tigers. Detroit is one of the best hitting teams at home and one of the best hitting teams against left-handed pitching. Sabathia will have trouble with all of the right-handed hitters in Detroit’s lineup. Rating = 5

Alfredo Simon (FD: $7400, DK: $5300)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.44 / xFIP: 4.05 / SIERA: 4.17
K/9: 5.82 / K%: 0.155 / BB%: 0.069

NYY vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 0.234 (Rank: 25)

Just like in each of the past three seasons, Simon’s ERA is much lower than his xFIP. Typically, the two tend to meet somewhere in the middle, but that hasn’t been the case with Simon. Either way, he doesn’t provide enough upside for my liking. He finished the 2014 season with a K/9 of 5.8, striking out only 15.5% of the batters that he faced. While he may be a small favorite, he draws a difficult matchup against the Yankees, who are ranked 10th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury (FD: $3900, DK: $4900)

Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
BA: 0.271 / wOBA: 0.327 / ISO: 0.148
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 / ISO: 0.137

Targeting high on-base players with speed that hit at the top of the order is one of my favorite cash game strategies. These players get on base often and are always a threat to steal when they do. Ellsbury hits right-handed pitching well and he draws a favorable matchup against Alfredo Simon, who gave up a .313 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season.

Additional Plays:

Brett Gardner (FD: $3600, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.34 / ISO: 0.197

Chase Headley (FD: $3100, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.327 / ISO: 0.132

Detroit

Victor Martinez (FD: $3900, DK: $4100)

Position Eligibility (FD: C, DK: 1B)
BA: 0.335 / wOBA: 0.411 / ISO: 0.230
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.476 / ISO: 0.322

Any right-handed hitter in the Tigers’ lineup deserves consideration on Monday night, so it basically just comes down to their price points and how much exposure to you want to have to Detroit. CC Sabathia gave up a .401 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season. Martinez gets the nod as the top play here, as he is much cheaper than Miguel Cabrera and has just as much upside. He was as good as anyone against left-handed pitching last season, posting a .476 wOBA and a .322 ISO.

Additional Plays:

Miguel Cabrera (FD: $5000, DK: $5400)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B/3B)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.382 / ISO: 0.235

J.D. Martinez (FD: $4000, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.425 / ISO: 0.333

Ian Kinsler (FD: $3900, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility (FD: 2B, DK: 2B)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.326 / ISO: 0.146

Rajai Davis (FD: $3300, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.408 / ISO: 0.201

Nick Castellanos (FD: $3000, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B/OF)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.304 / ISO: 0.137

Cincinnati at Milwaukee

Pitcher Grind Down

Anthony Desclafani (FD: $6900, DK: $6200)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 6.27 / xFIP: 3.8 / SIERA: 3.7
K/9: 7.09 / K%: 0.178 / BB%: 0.034

MIL vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.269 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 0.218 (Rank: 20)

Desclafani has pitched pretty well in his first two starts of the season, posting a 3.92 xFIP with a K/9 of 7.6. He has decent strikeout potential and on paper, this isn’t a bad matchup against the Brewers. Milwaukee has been one of the coldest offenses in all of baseball, ranking 27th in wOBA against right-handed pitching. It’s only a matter of time before they start hitting though, as there is too much talent in their lineup. Add in the fact that this game is being played in the hitter-friendly Miller Park and that’s enough cause for concern. Rating = 5.5

Wily Peralta (FD: $7200, DK: $7000)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.53 / xFIP: 3.64 / SIERA: 3.73
K/9: 6.98 / K%: 0.184 / BB%: 0.073

CIN vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.279 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 0.212 (Rank: 16)

Peralta has a mean fastball, but unfortunately he hasn’t been able to turn it into an elite strikeout rate. In 2014, he posted a K/9 of 6.9, while striking out 18.4% of the batters that he faced. He draws a favorable matchup against the Reds, who are ranked 22nd in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. If he can pitch around the left-handed hitters in this lineup (Votto, Hamilton, and Bruce), he could be in for a quality outing. At his price point, he makes a strong SP2 on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6.5

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Joey Votto (FD: $4400, DK: $5200)

Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
BA: 0.255 / wOBA: 0.359 / ISO: 0.155
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 / ISO: 0.093

Votto has been on a tear, recording four multi-hit games over his last six outings. He has always hit right-handed pitching well and he will have the splits in his favor on Monday night, as Wily Peralta gave up a .361 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Votto always sees a ballpark boost in Miller Park, which is typically a top-ten park for both runs and home runs.

Additional Plays:

Billy Hamilton (FD: $3900, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF/SS)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.285 / ISO: 0.104

Jay Bruce (FD: $3400, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.301 / ISO: 0.149

Milwaukee

Adam Lind (FD: $3400, DK: $4400)

Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
BA: 0.321 / wOBA: 0.376 / ISO: 0.159
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.410 / ISO: 0.179

Lind is the one Brewers’ bat that I have confidence in right now. He is 12-for-40 on the season with five extra-base hits and five RBIs. Lind’s price is very playable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a terrific matchup against Anthony Desclafani, who gave up a .391 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Meanwhile, Lind posted a .410 wOBA and a .179 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Additional Plays:

Gerardo Parra (FD: $2300, DK: $3300)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.307 / ISO: 0.123

Minnesota at Kansas City

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson (FD: $6300, DK: $5300)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.47 / xFIP: 3.99 / SIERA: 4.18
K/9: 5.37 / K%: 0.141 / BB%: 0.075

KC vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.369 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 0.143 (Rank: 1)

Gibson is an easy pitcher to avoid on Monday night. He has very limited upside, thanks to his low strikeout potential. In 2014, he had a K/9 of 5.4, while only striking out 14.1% of the batters that he faced. Additionally, he draws the worst strikeout matchup in all of baseball. The Royals had the fewest number of strikeouts last season and they are at it again this season. Gibson is one of the worst pitching options on the board. Rating = 3

Edinson Volquez (FD: $9000, DK: $6600)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.04 / xFIP: 4.20 / SIERA: 4.20
K/9: 6.54 / K%: 0.173 / BB%: 0.088

MIN vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.255 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 0.248 (Rank: 28)

Volquez has pitched well in his first two starts of the season and I’m expecting him to have an excellent year as a member of the Royals. Half of his starts will come in the huge Kauffman Stadium, that is one of the better pitcher parks in baseball. Volquez is a -160 favorite against a Twins’ offense that is ranked 29th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The Twins have also struck out at the 3rd-highest rate. Volquez should have plenty of run support and he can afford to be aggressive with a big ballpark and a great defense behind him. (Note: How is he only $6,600 on DraftKings?) Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

NO ELITE PLAYS

Additional Plays:

Danny Santana (FD: $3100, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility (FD: SS, DK: OF/SS)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.369 / ISO: 0.156

Kennys Vargas (FD: $2400, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.387 / ISO: 0.252

Kansas City

Mike Moustakas (FD: $3100, DK: $4200)

Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)
BA: 0.212 / wOBA: 0.281 / ISO: 0.149
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.289 / ISO: 0.151

Moose Tacos is hitting the ball well this season, which is great to see. He has one of the best nicknames in all of sports. His salary has come up a bit on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but I’m willing to pay the elevated price point in a favorable matchup against Kyle Gibson. As I mentioned above, Gibson does not miss many bats and I’m expecting the Royals to make some great contact off of him on Monday night.

Additional Plays:

Lorenzo Cain (FD: $4000, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.318 / ISO: 0.092

Eric Hosmer (FD: $3500, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.321 / ISO: 0.132

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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