MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 6 - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-07 01:14:53

Atlanta at Miami

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Teheran (FD: $9200, DK: $8800)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 2.89 / xFIP: 3.72 / SIERA: 3.68
K/9: 7.57 / K%: 0.21 / BB%: 0.058
MIA vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 15 / K% Rank: 28

Analysis: Teheran pitched well last season, but the 2.89 ERA may be a little misleading. His xFIP and SIERA were both around 3.70 and most argue that they are a better predictor of future ERA than past ERA is. Teheran gets to pitch in a pitcher-friendly ballpark in the opener though. The Marlins added some nice pieces offensively, but this game still has a low run total of 6.5. Teheran is a decent option if you want to diversify your lineups. His biggest issue this season may be run support.

Henderson Alvarez (FD: $7400, DK: $6200)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 2.65 / xFIP: 3.57 / SIERA: 3.7
K/9: 5.34 / K%: 0.144 / BB%: 0.043
ATL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 29 / K% Rank: 26

Analysis: Alvarez is not a high-strikeout pitcher by any means, but it’s hard to pass up on his value against a Braves’ offense that shipped out three of its best hitters in Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis. In 14 starts in Marlins Park last season, Alvarez posted a 1.60 ERA while holding opponents to a .228 batting average. He’s a small favorite in a game that has one of the lowest run totals on the board. If you are playing on a multi-pitcher site and want to target Clayton Kershaw, Alvarez makes a terrific SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman (FD: $3800, DK: $4400)

BA: 0.288 / wOBA: 0.374 / ISO: 0.173
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 / ISO: 0.188

Analysis: Freeman is coming off of another productive season. He finished 2014 with a .288 batting average and a .374 weighted on-base average. His numbers against right-handed pitching were even better than that, as he had a .388 weighted on-base average against righties. Freeman is really the only Braves’ batter that is on my radar on opening day.

Secondary Plays:

Nick Markakis (FD: $3100, DK: $3400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.332 / ISO: 0.135

Miami

Christian Yelich (FD: $3700, DK: $4200)

BA: 0.284 / wOBA: 0.341 / ISO: 0.119
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 / ISO: 0.116

Analysis: Giancarlo Stanton always deserves consideration at home, but Yelich offers better value dollar for dollar. He also draws a better matchup, as Teheran is much better against right-handed hitters than he is against left-handed hitters. Yelich is one of those players that rarely puts up a zero in daily fantasy. He always finds a way to get on base and once he gets there, he’s a threat to steal. He seems a little underpriced to open the season.

Secondary Plays:

Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $4900, DK: $4900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.391 / ISO: 0.262

San Francisco at Arizona

Pitcher Grind Down

Madison Bumgarner (FD: $10500, DK: $9800)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 2.98 / xFIP: 2.99 / SIERA: 2.98
K/9: 9.07 / K%: 0.251 / BB%: 0.049
ARI vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 25 / K% Rank: 8

Analysis: Bumgarner is fresh off of a World Series victory where he was named the MVP. He was absolutely dominant in the playoffs and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him get off to a quick start in 2015. Bumgarner finished last season with a 2.98 ERA (2.99 xFIP) and a K/9 of 9.1. While Chase Field is a hitter-friendly ballpark, there is really only one bat in the Diamondbacks lineup that scares me. If Bumgarner can pitch around Paul Goldschmidt, he should throw a quality outing on opening day.

Josh Collmenter (FD: $7200, DK: $5900)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 3.46 / xFIP: 4.07 / SIERA: 4.18
K/9: 5.77 / K%: 0.16 / BB%: 0.054
SF vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 15 / K% Rank: 15

Analysis: Collmenter is one of those pitchers that no one will be targeting on opening day. His statistics from last season were mediocre at best. He finished with a 3.46 ERA (4.07 xFIP) and a K/9 of 5.8. He did pitch well at home though, posting a 2.63 ERA while holding opponents to a .200 batting average. Unfortunately, that’s just not enough to warrant consideration with all of the other great pitching options.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Buster Posey (FD: $4300, DK: $4600)

BA: 0.311 / wOBA: 0.371 / ISO: 0.179
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 / ISO: 0.164

Analysis: This will be the third BvP stat quoted in the Grind Down. There usually won’t be that many, but hey it’s opening day and I have a case of premature BvP-ulation. Posey is 11/18 off of Collmenter with 3 home runs and a double. Posey hits both left-handed and right-handed pitching well and he gets to play in the hitter-friendly Chase Field.

Brandon Belt (FD: $3500, DK: $4500)

BA: 0.243 / wOBA: 0.330 / ISO: 0.206
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.335 / ISO: 0.240

Analysis: Belt’s $3,500 price tag on FanDuel is awfully enticing. If we are going to target Clayton Kershaw, we are going to have to cut corners and find value wherever possible. Belt may provide just that. He had a .335 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. Meanwhile, Collmenter gave up a .325 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Secondary Plays:

Angel Pagan (FD: $2900, DK: $4000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.35 / ISO: 0.082

Joe Panik (FD: $2400, DK: $3400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.296 / ISO: 0.054

Arizona

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt (FD: $4800, DK: $4700) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.470 / ISO: 0.205

Chris Owings (FD: $2700, DK: $3300) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.360 / ISO: 0.191

Texas at Oakland

Pitcher Grind Down

Yovani Gallardo (FD: $7600, DK: $6600)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 3.51 / xFIP: 3.64 / SIERA: 3.78
K/9: 6.83 / K%: 0.179 / BB%: 0.066
OAK vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 9 / K% Rank: 3

Analysis: Gallardo had a solid 2014 season. He finished with a 3.51 ERA (3.64 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.8. He is now a member of the Rangers and he’ll be making his first start with his new team on opening day. Last season, the A’s were always a tough team to target pitchers against because they worked the pitch counts and they drew a lot of walks. While the A’s have lost a few pieces offensively, they will still have the same discipline at the plate.

Sonny Gray (FD: $9400, DK: $8300)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 3.08 / xFIP: 3.47 / SIERA: 3.56
K/9: 7.52 / K%: 0.204 / BB%: 0.082
TEX vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 26 / K% Rank: 11

Analysis: Gray had an up and down season in 2014. When all was said and done, he finished with a 3.08 ERA (3.47 xFIP) and a K/9 of 7.5. He’s very familiar with this Rangers’ ball club, as he faced them six times last season. He pitched well in those outings, posting a 2.06 ERA with 35 strikeouts over 43 innings of work. He’s pitching at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark against an average Rangers’ offense. He’s a very sneaky play on opening day.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Adrian Beltre (FD: $4200, DK: $4400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.366 / ISO: 0.16

Shin-Soo Choo (FD: $3000, DK: $4000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.329 / ISO: 0.14

Oakland

Ben Zobrist (FD: $3100, DK: $4000)

BA: 0.272 / wOBA: 0.333 / ISO: 0.123
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.118

Analysis: The A’s lineup looks much different than it did at the start of last season. They no longer have Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Donaldson, John Jaso, or Derek Norris. They do have Zobrist though. Zobrist hits well from both sides of the plate and he draws a favorable matchup against Yovani Gallardo. Zobrist had a strong Spring and he should get off to a quick start with his new ball club.

Secondary Plays:

Brett Lawrie (FD: $2900, DK: $3700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.336 / ISO: 0.177

Cleveland at Houston

Pitcher Grind Down

Corey Kluber (FD: $10400, DK: $9800)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 2.44 / xFIP: 2.57 / SIERA: 2.61
K/9: 10.27 / K%: 0.283 / BB%: 0.054
HOU vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 23 / K% Rank: 30

Analysis: The Klubes (that’s what I call him when we hang out) is coming off of an outstanding season. He finished 2014 with a 2.44 ERA (2.57 xFIP) and an elite K/9 of 10.3. His numbers were even better after the All-Star break, posting a 1.73 ERA while holding his opponents to a .210 batting average. He is an elite pitcher that deserves consideration in all league contests. He has has much upside as any pitcher not named Clayton Kershaw. While Minute Maid Park is a hitter-friendly ballpark, the Astros are a pitcher-friendly opponent. They struck out more times (against right-handed pitching) than any other team in the majors last season.

Dallas Keuchel (FD: $8300, DK: $6900)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 2.93 / xFIP: 3.2 / SIERA: 3.11
K/9: 6.57 / K%: 0.181 / BB%: 0.059
CLE vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 24 / K% Rank: 4

Analysis: Keuchel had a sneaky-good season in 2014. He finished with a 2.93 ERA (3.20 xFIP) and a K/9 of 6.6. He had a few double-digit strikeout performances last season and he should be considered as a deep sleeper on opening day. The Indians did not hit left-handed pitching well last season and they did little to help that in the offseason. They acquired Brandon Moss, but he has never hit lefties all that well.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Yan Gomes (FD: $3400, DK: $4100)

BA: 0.278 / wOBA: 0.340 / ISO: 0.194
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.380 / ISO: 0.186

Analysis: One Indians’ batter that does hit left-handed pitching well is Gomes. He had a .380 wOBA against lefties last season and he should be batting in the heart of the order on opening day. Keuchel’s .299 weighted on-base average given up to right-handed batters isn’t anything special, but this is a home run-friendly ballpark.

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Santana (FD: $3500, DK: $4300) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.381 / ISO: 0.198

Jose Ramirez (FD: $2600, DK: $3400) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.300 / ISO: 0.063

Houston

None – Corey Kluber is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Unless the site you play on awards fantasy points for strikeouts, I would avoid the Astros on opening day.