MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 11th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
NY Yankees at Baltimore
| NY Yankees | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Chris Capuano | Vegas Moneyline | Bud Norris | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | BAL (-137) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.308 | 0.834 | 0.366 | 13.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 0.723 | 0.321 | 16.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.222 | 0.660 | 0.290 | 24.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.250 | 0.727 | 0.324 | 20.00% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP  | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Chris Capuano – Capuano is coming off of a terrific start against the Tigers, but he is still an average lefty at this stage in his career. On the season he owns a 3.91 ERA (3.83 xFIP) with a K/BB ratio of only 2.31. A large part of his success this season has been his HR per fly ball rate of 6.7%. That may change tonight in Camden Yards with all of the big bats that the Orioles bring to the plate. Capuano is a small underdog in a game that features a high run total. He should be avoided in all league formats. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5600 FD, $9700 DD, $5600 DK, $40000 FF, $14200 SS, $NA FTD
- Bud Norris – Norris has really pitched well in Camden Yards this season. He owns a 2.61 ERA and has held opponents to a .246 batting average at home. Norris has a decent K-rate (6.7 per 9 innings) and an average walk-rate (2.9 per 9 innings). The matchup doesn’t bode well for Norris as the Yankees’ offense is LH heavy and Norris has given up a career .350 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. He’s the preferred option over Capuano, but there are better options at his price point. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7100 FD, $12700 DD, $7200 DK, $92500 FF, $19500 SS, $12700 FTD
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Jacoby Ellsbury – If you look at Ellsbury’s game logs over his last 10 games, he has been a very productive fantasy player. He has reached double-digit DK fantasy points in 6 of his last 10 games. He draws a nice matchup against Norris tonight who has struggled with LH hitters. Ellsbury also gives you the added bonus of stolen base potential.
Additional Plays: Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran, Stephen Drew
Baltimore
Adam Jones – Capuano has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, but the sample size is small and that hasn’t been the case throughout his career. Capuano has given up a .346 wOBA to RH hitters in his career and Jones makes a great play in the OF tonight. Jones is batting .370 with a .474 wOBA against southpaws this season.
Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz, Manny Machado, J.J. Hardy
Detroit at Pittsburgh
| Detroit | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Justin Verlander | Vegas Moneyline | Jeff Locke | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | DET (-107) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.228 | 0.680 | 0.303 | 17.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.182 | 0.511 | 0.223 | 8.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.316 | 0.848 | 0.372 | 15.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.277 | 0.756 | 0.332 | 19.10% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Justin Verlander – Verlander is starting to round into form, at least better form than we’ve seen from him during the first 4 months of the season. In his last 3 starts he has pitched at least 7 innings in each and hasn’t given up more than 3 earned runs in any single start. At his current price point, he’s actually been a solid play in his last 4 starts. That said, we still can’t expect the Verlander of year’s past. He’s striking out less batters and walking more. His saving grace is that he is trending upward and he plays on the Tigers who tend to give their pitching staff plenty of run support. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7500 FD, $13550 DD, $7000 DK, $88500 FF, $19500 SS, $13550 FTD
- Jeff Locke – Locke has pitched pretty well this season with a 3.78 ERA (3.48 xFIP) and a K/9 of 6.22. He’s pitched well at PNC Park this season and is coming off of a nice outing against the Marlins. That said, his matchup against the Tigers puts him on the “DO NOT TOUCH” list tonight. The Tigers are ranked 2nd in wOBA (.346) against LH pitching this season and have plenty of RH bats to throw at the southpaw tonight. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6000 FD, $12900 DD, $6600 DK, $76800 FF, $18600 SS, $12900 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Victor Martinez – Locke has pitched well this season, but he has struggled with RH hitters. He’s given up a .332 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate this season and V-Mart continues to crush LH pitching with a .471 wOBA against southpaws on the season.
Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Rajai Davis, J.D. Martinez
Pittsburgh
Josh Harrison – Harrison has been swinging a hot bat with 18 hits over his last 10 games, 8 of which went for extra bases. He’s facing Verlander who has had some serious reverse splits this season. Verlander has given up a .373 wOBA to RH hitters. Harrison should be able to keep his hot play going tonight.
Additional Plays: Russell Martin
LA Dodgers at Atlanta
| LA Dodgers | Atlanta | ||||||||
| Kevin Correia | Vegas Moneyline | Julio Teheran | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | ATL (-165) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.289 | 0.776 | 0.341 | 9.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.674 | 0.298 | 19.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.298 | 0.796 | 0.349 | 12.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.219 | 0.592 | 0.265 | 25.70% |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LAD vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kevin Correia – Correia is the opposite of the type of pitcher that you want to target in daily fantasy baseball. He hasn’t struck out more than 4 batters in any of his last 10 starts. His ERA (4.94) is higher than is K-rate (4.24 per 9 innings). That’s a huge red flag and I will continue to avoid him tonight as he takes on the Braves at Turner Field. This will be his first start as a member of the Dodgers, but I’m not sure a change of scenery is going to help him at all. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5000 FD, $9350 DD, $5400 DK, $40000 FF, $13000 SS, $9350 FTD
- Julio Teheran – If it wasn’t for Felix Hernandez, Teheran would be the top pitching option on the schedule tonight. Teheran has been nearly unhittable at home this season. He has a 1.48 ERA with 72 K’s over 79 innings of work at Turner Field. He’s also held opponents to a .188 batting average in his home starts. While the Dodgers are certainly a capable offense, I’ll take great pitching over good hitting here. Teheran should also see plenty of run support with Correia on the mound for the Dodgers. Rating = 8
Salaries: $8800 FD, $19500 DD, $8900 DK, $112500 FF, $27100 SS, $19500 FTD
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
Adrian Gonzalez – Gonzalez is the one Dodgers hitter that I may have some exposure to. He is coming off of a big series against the Brewers and has 9 hits over his last 4 games. His price is still very affordable and he tends to step up his level of play when he’s facing the RH pitchers in baseball.
Additional Plays: None
Atlanta
Freddie Freeman – The Braves are one of my favorite teams to stack tonight. Correia strikes very few batters out which means the Braves are going to be putting the ball in play. Correia has given up a .340+ wOBA to both LH and RH hitters so batters from both sides of the plate are in play tonight. Freeman leads the way with his .383 wOBA against RH pitching this season.
Additional Plays: Evan Gattis, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton
St. Louis at Miami
| St. Louis | Miami | ||||||||
| Shelby Miller | Vegas Moneyline | Tom Koehler | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIA (-113) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.749 | 0.333 | 14.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.213 | 0.592 | 0.269 | 19.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.693 | 0.310 | 16.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.727 | 0.324 | 16.80% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Shelby Miller – After an incredibly rocky patch, Miller finally appears to have righted the ship. In his last 3 starts, he’s only given up a combined 5 earned runs while striking out 12 batters. That said, Miller doesn’t have the best road splits and he hasn’t thrown more than 92 pitches in any of his last 5 outings. Tonight he faces a Marlins offense that has been very good at home this season despite Marlins Park being a pitcher-friendly environment. Miller’s cheap price tag puts him in play for tournaments, but he’s too risky to use in cash games. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5600 FD, $11100 DD, $6100 DK, $81300 FF, $17100 SS, $11100 FTD
- Tom Koehler – Koehler is one of those pitchers that just looks more comfortable at home. Whether it be the home cooking or the ballpark, something is working for Koehler at home. On the season, he has a 2.45 ERA at Marlins Park and has held his opponents to an impressive .194 batting average. He is facing a Cardinals offense that is ranked 20th in wOBA (.303) vs. RH pitching this season. As long as he can cut down on his walks, he will be a viable fantasy option tonight. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6200 FD, $13250 DD, $6500 DK, $75500 FF, $17400 SS, $13250 FTD
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Jhonny Peralta – J-HONNY has one of my favorite names in baseball. I’m thinking about adding a silent H to my name as well. Dherek just looks better don’t you think? Peralta has very silently been playing some great baseball. He has 3 multi-hit games in his last 4 outings and faces a reverse-splits pitcher in Koehler.
Additional Plays: Matt Adams, Matt Holliday
Miami
Christian Yelich – Yelich is one of those players that brings a little bit of everything to the table. He has good power (31 XBH’s) and good speed (13 SB’s). He also has a great eye for the ball as he has already drawn 50 walks on the season. He’s in a good spot tonight against Miller who has given up a .333 wOBA to LH hitters this season.
Additional Plays: Garrett Jones
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
| Milwaukee | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
| Yovani Gallardo | Vegas Moneyline | Jake Arrieta | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CHC (-110) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.225 | 0.623 | 0.284 | 17.60% | SP vs. Left | 0.226 | 0.623 | 0.277 | 27.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.721 | 0.319 | 19.40% | SP vs. Right | 0.201 | 0.507 | 0.230 | 25.40% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Yovani Gallardo – Gallardo has been a very solid piece in the Brewers starting rotation this season. He has a 3.54 ERA (3.58 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.0. He’s actually pitched very well away from Miller Park with a 2.90 ERA. Tonight he’s facing a Cubs offense that is ranked 28th in wOBA (.292) vs. RH pitching this season. The Cubs are also a team that isn’t afraid to strikeout (22.3% K-rate against righties). I don’t think he’ll be a popular play tonight, but he’s certainly a viable option. Rating = 6
Salaries: $6900 FD, $14600 DD, $7300 DK, $78600 FF, $21600 SS, $14600 FTD
- Jake Arrieta – Arrieta will be looking to bounce back after getting absolutely crushed in his last start. Granted, it was against the Rockies in Coors Field so we will give him a pass. Even with that terrible outing, Arrieta still owns a 2.80 ERA (2.85 xFIP) and a K/9 of 9.5. He’s really pitched well at home with a 1.81 ERA at Wrigley while holding opponents to a .181 batting average. He’s held RH hitters to an incredibly low .230 wOBA this season which bodes well for his matchup against a RH heavy Brewers offense. Rating = 7
Salaries: $7400 FD, $14850 DD, $8000 DK, $96200 FF, $26300 SS, $14850 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
I’m going to avoid all Brewers tonight against Arrieta unless the wind starts blowing out to center. Arrieta has been terrific this season and should bounce back nicely after that rough outing in Coors.
Chicago Cubs
Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo is the only Cubs hitter that I’m going to have any exposure to tonight and it will likely be limited to GPP’s. With the type of power that he possesses, you always have to at least consider him as a tournament play.
Additional Plays: None
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