MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 18th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Seattle at Philadelphia
| Seattle | Philadelphia | ||||||||
| Roenis Elias | Vegas Moneyline | Jerome Williams | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | SEA (-139) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.204 | 0.652 | 0.292 | 25.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.321 | 0.882 | 0.386 | 19.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.734 | 0.325 | 20.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.307 | 0.824 | 0.364 | 13.20% |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP  | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Roenis Elias – Elias has had a nice little stretch of starts. He hasn’t given up more than 2 earned runs in any of his last 4 starts and he has struck out 26 batters over that stretch. On the season he owns a 4.14 ERA (3.83 xFIP) with a K/9 of 8.2. While the Phillies do not hit LH pitching well (ranked 23rd in wOBA), Citizens Bank Park is a HR-friendly ballpark and Elias has given up a HR per fly ball rate of 11%. His strikeout potential outweighs the HR concern though. He is in play for both GPP’s and multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $6700 FD, $13300 DD, $7500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jerome Williams – Williams may be the worst pitcher on the mound tonight. He has never been able to stick around very long in the big leagues. This season he owns a 6.43 ERA with a mediocre K/9 of 6.7. Williams walks quite a few batters (2.9 per 9 innings) and is giving up 1.15 HR’s per 9 innings which doesn’t bode well for him tonight in Citizens Bank Park. The Mariners offense has been much better over the last month of play and Williams can be safely avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5000 FD, $8850 DD, $4800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Robinson Cano – As mentioned above, I think the M’s knock Williams around a bit in this one. Target the LH hitters in this lineup as Williams has given up a .395 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate this season. Cano meanwhile, mashes RH pitching to a tune of a .359 batting average and a .413 wOBA.
Additional Plays: Kyle Seager, Logan Morrison, Kendrys Morales
Philadelphia
Marlon Byrd – Byrd has been solid all around this season. He’s hit both LH and RH pitching well, but has historically had much more success against southpaws. Elias has given up a .320 wOBA to RH hitters and as mentioned above, does give up a pretty high HR per fly ball rate.
Additional Plays: Jimmy Rollins
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
| Atlanta | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Ervin Santana | Vegas Moneyline | Vance Worley | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PIT (-114) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.290 | 0.796 | 0.346 | 18.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.262 | 0.675 | 0.299 | 9.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.208 | 0.577 | 0.261 | 26.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.579 | 0.258 | 19.00% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Ervin Santana – Santana is an interesting play tonight. He has a terrific strikeout rate (8.2 per 9 innings) and he’s only given up more than 3 earned runs once in his last 10 starts. That said, he does draw a tough matchup against a speedy Pirates offense that has the 2nd highest wOBA over the last 30 days of play. Santana is a small underdog in this one, but the peripheral stats support Santana over Worley. The problem is that you are going to have to pay a pretty penny to get him in your lineups. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8800 FD, $18050 DD, $9300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $18050 FTD
- Vance Worley – Worley owns a 2.51 ERA on the season, but has a 3.66 xFIP. He has a low K/9 of 5.7 and his BABIP of .280 is pretty low as well. I have yet to buy in on Worley and think that his limited upside makes him a fairly average fantasy option. While the Braves aren’t great against RH pitching (ranked 27th in wOBA), I’ll be avoiding Worley once again. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6400 FD, $14950 DD, $7300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $14950 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Freddie Freeman – Worley has given up a career .330 wOBA to LH hitters. Freeman on the other hand has always crushed RH pitching. He has a .393 wOBA against righties and has been swinging a hot bat with 14 hits (7 XBH’s) over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Jason Heyward, Evan Gattis
Pittsburgh
Josh Harrison – This isn’t a great matchup in terms of handedness, but Harrison has been on fire in the month of August. He is batting .368 with a .424 wOBA during that stretch. He also gives you the added bonus of stolen base potential.
Additional Plays: Gregory Polanco
Arizona at Washington
| Arizona | Washington | ||||||||
| Vidal Nuno | Vegas Moneyline | Jordan Zimmermann | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | WAS (-200) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.215 | 0.685 | 0.306 | 20.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.664 | 0.293 | 19.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.270 | 0.807 | 0.350 | 17.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.687 | 0.304 | 25.10% |
| Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Vidal Nuno – Nuno is not a recommended fantasy option. He has a 4.92 ERA on the season (4.24 xFIP) with a K.9 of 7.0. Tonight he’s facing a Nationals offense that is ranked 10th in wOBA vs. LH pitching. It also doesn’t help his cause that Zimmermann is pitching opposite him. He’s a huge underdog and can safely be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5400 FD, $11800 DD, $5600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $11800 FTD
- Jordan Zimmermann – Zimmermann may be the safest cash game play on the board tonight. Not only is he cheaper than Sale, but he is a bigger favorite and has a better matchup as well. Zimmermann owns a 2.92 ERA this season (3.04 xFIP) with a K/9 of 8.1. He walks very few batters (1.3 per 9 innings) and doesn’t given up man HR’s (0.53 per 9 innings). Tonight he draws a terrific matchup against a depleted Diamondbacks offense. Rating = 8
Salaries: $8700 FD, $17550 DD, $9200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $17550 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
David Peralta and Ender Inciarte are typically solid value plays against RH pitching, but I don’t love the matchup against Zimmermann. Avoid all Diamondbacks hitters tonight.
Washington
Jayson Werth – It’s a great time to buy low on Rendon. His price is depressed across the industry and he draws a terrific matchup against Nuno who has given up a .352 wOBA to RH hitters. Werth has always crushed LH pitching and this season is no different as he’s batting .340 with a .405 wOBA.
Additional Plays: Anthony Rendon
LA Angels at Boston
| LA Angels | Boston | ||||||||
| C.J. Wilson | Vegas Moneyline | Brandon Workman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | LAA (-120) | RIGHT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.205 | 0.584 | 0.268 | 23.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.229 | 0.699 | 0.311 | 18.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.784 | 0.347 | 21.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.198 | 0.634 | 0.283 | 16.80% |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | LAA vs R | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- C.J. Wilson – Wilson just hasn’t looked the same since coming back from injury. In his first 3 starts back, he has given up 12 earned runs while only striking out 9 batters. I will continue to avoid him in daily fantasy until he can prove that he is back in early season form. The Red Sox are pretty good against LH pitching (14th in wOBA) and he’s pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6800 FD, $12600 DD, $6300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $12600 FTD
- Brandon Workman – Workman finds himself in a tough spot tonight. He’s facing a very talented Angels offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Workman has pretty average numbers this season with a 4.45 ERA and a K/9 of 6.9. He walks a few too many batters and he’s not likely to get away with it against the Angels who hit a lot of HR’s. He’s an easy avoid tonight against the Halo’s. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5000 FD, $10850 DD, $5400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
Kole Calhoun – Calhoun was a bit of a disappointment in yesterday’s game, but otherwise has been red hot of late. He has 16 hits (6 XBH’s) over his last 10 games and draws a terrific matchup against Workman who has given up a high average to batters from the left side of the plate.
Additional Plays: Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Erick Aybar
Boston
Dustin Pedroia – Pedroia has a great matchup in terms of handedness as well as BvP. Wilson has given up a .348 wOBA to RH hitters this season and Pedroia has had Wilson’s number in the past going 9/21 with 4 XBH’s off of him in his career.
Additional Plays: Yoenis Cespedes, Mike Napoli
Baltimore at Chicago White Sox
| Baltimore | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
| Bud Norris | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Sale | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CWS (-170) | LEFT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 0.723 | 0.321 | 16.00% | SP vs. Left | 0.118 | 0.301 | 0.145 | 39.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.250 | 0.727 | 0.324 | 20.00% | SP vs. Right | 0.218 | 0.590 | 0.264 | 26.60% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Bud Norris – Norris has had a very nice season as a member of the Orioles. He has a 3.75 ERA with a K/9 of 6.8. He has cut down on his walks this season and he is producing a career high 43% ground ball rate. He’s been a solid fantasy option this season, but he should have his hands full tonight against the White Sox who are ranked 8th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. He’ll also see little to no run support with Sale pitching opposite him. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7200 FD, $12900 DD, $7200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $12700 FTD
- Chris Sale – Sale is the clear #1 option at pitcher tonight, but you are certainly going to have to pay up for him. After a couple of subpar starts (by his standards at least), he bounced back in a huge way against the Giants by striking out 12 batters without giving up a run over 8 innings of work. Sale has one of the best K-rates in all of baseball and he’s facing an Orioles offense that strikes out at a 20% clip against LH pitching. Zimmermann is a bit cheaper, but Sale has a higher strikeout potential. Rating = 9
Salaries: $10600 FD, $20800 DD, $12500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $20800 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Avoid all Orioles tonight against Sale. Even Nelson Cruz and Adam Jones who have hit lefties well this season.
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu – Norris has historically struggled against LH hitters, but this season he has actually given up a higher wOBA to RH hitters than he has to LH hitters. Abreu has terrific power, especially against RH pitching and for whatever reason, he tends to get overlooked at 1B.
Additional Plays: Conor Gillaspie, Alexei Ramirez