MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 25th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
| Tampa Bay | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Jake Odorizzi | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Tillman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BAL (-132) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.677 | 0.299 | 30.40% | SP vs. Left | 0.242 | 0.667 | 0.298 | 16.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.663 | 0.299 | 21.70% | SP vs. Right | 0.221 | 0.678 | 0.301 | 16.10% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP  | TBR vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi takes the mound for the Rays tonight. He’s been a great strikeout pitcher this season (10.1 K’s per 9 innings), but hasn’t had the best road splits. He’s sporting a 4.74 ERA on the road while giving up a .344 wOBA to opponents. He’s a small underdog tonight against the Orioles who are ranked 11th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. He’ll likely give up a few runs in this one, but his strikeout potential puts him in play for tournaments. Rating = 5
Salaries: $8100 FD, $15700 DD, $8600 DK, $NA FF, $24000 SS, $15700 FTD
- Chris Tillman – Tillman has pitched pretty well this season, but there’s nothing that really jumps out at you when you look at his numbers. He has a pretty average ERA (3.55) and xFIP (4.31). He strikes out just over 6 batters per 9 innings and he produces a fairly low ground ball rate of 40.9%. Tillman’s low K/9 makes it for him to have a good fantasy outing unless he gets the win. He looks like a pretty average fantasy option tonight against the Rays who are ranked 16th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7300 FD, $13800 DD, $7700 DK, $ FF, $22200 SS, $13800 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Evan Longoria – In terms of handedness, this isn’t a great matchup. Longo typically hits lefties better and Tillman has held RH hitters in check. That said, Longo’s BvP numbers against Tillman are off the chart. He is 13/30 with 5 HR’s and 2 doubles against Tillman in his career.
Additional Plays: Matt Joyce
Baltimore
Nick Markakis – Odorizzi has kept both LH and RH hitters in check this season, holding both under a .300 wOBA. That said, he hasn’t been nearly as successful on the road as he has been at home. Markakis has gone hitless in his last 5 games, but should be able to end that streak tonight. He typically has a high floor which makes him a great target for cash games.
Additional Plays: Adam Jones
St. Louis at Pittsburgh
| St. Louis | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| John Lackey | Vegas Moneyline | Francisco Liriano | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PIT (-137) | LEFT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.241 | 0.688 | 0.303 | 20.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.283 | 0.788 | 0.348 | 29.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.276 | 0.757 | 0.333 | 19.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.214 | 0.666 | 0.299 | 23.60% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs L | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- John Lackey – Lackey has only given up more than 2 earned runs once in his last 7 starts. He owns a 3.88 ERA (3.43 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.5. He typically pounds the strike zone and is producing a 45.2% ground ball rate. The issue that I have with Lackey tonight is his matchup against the Pirates. The Buccos are ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season and are also the 5th best offense in baseball over the last 30 days. Lackey will have to pitch a gem to walk out of this one with a win. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $7600 FD, $13250 DD, $8000 DK, $NA FF, $20600 SS, $13250 FTD
- Francisco Liriano – You know it’s a thin night for pitchers when Liriano looks like one of the best plays on the board. His velocity has been up in his last few starts and his numbers on the season look solid. He owns a 4.18 ERA (3.44 xFIP) with a K/9 of 9.7. He’s also producing a respectable 54.6% ground ball rate. The biggest issue that he has had this season has been his command. He has given up way too many walks (4.34 per 9 innings). Tonight he’s facing a Cardinals offense that is right around the league average in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. On a night void of aces, Liriano looks like a solid play. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $7100 FD, $13800 DD, $10400 DK, $ FF, $17200 SS, $13800 FTD
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Liriano has had some reverse splits this season, but I think it’s more of an aberration than anything else. In his career he has held LH hitters to a .218 batting average and a .265 wOBA. Matt Holliday is in play here, but I’ll probably be avoiding the Cardinals offense altogether.
Pittsburgh
Josh Harrison – Lackey is a reverse-splits pitcher, meaning he gives up a higher wOBA to batters of the same handedness that he pitches with. He has given up a .333 wOBA to RH hitters this season and has already given up 15 SB’s which is the 7th most of any pitcher in baseball this season. All 3 of the speedy Pirates OF’s are in play.
Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte
Washington at Philadelphia
| Washington | Philadelphia | ||||||||
| Tanner Roark | Vegas Moneyline | A.J. Burnett | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-150) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.650 | 0.291 | 14.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.800 | 0.355 | 17.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.593 | 0.265 | 21.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.699 | 0.312 | 21.10% |
| Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tanner Roark – Roark has really pitched well this season. He owns a 2.80 ERA (3.82 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.6. While you’d like to see his K-rate go up a bit, it’s hard to complain about a pitcher that gives up very few walks and very few HR’s. Tonight he faces a Phillies offense that is one of the worst in all of baseball. They are ranked 28th in wOBA vs. RH pitching and 27th in wOBA at home this season. Roark pitched 7 strong innings against the Phillies in their last meeting and I expect a similar performance tonight. Rating = 7
Salaries: $7600 FD, $15800 DD, $8700 DK, $NA FF, $21900 SS, $15800 FTD
- A.J. Burnett – Now is not the time to target Burnett. He has given up 14 earned runs over his last 3 starts. His ERA has gone all the way up to 4.42 on the season and the rest of his numbers are all trending in the wrong direction. His strikeouts and velocity are down, while his walks and opposing batting average are up. Despite a low run total, I’ll be avoiding Burnett tonight against the Nationals who have been the 2nd best offense in baseball over the last 30 days (.320 wOBA). Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $6700 FD, $13600 DD, $6700 DK, $ FF, $16900 SS, $13600 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Adam LaRoche – This is a great matchup in terms of both handedness and BvP. Burnett has given up a .355 wOBA to LH hitters this season and we all know that LaRoche mashes RH pitching. LaRoche also has a good track record against Burnett going 12/32 with 7 XBH’s off of him in his career.
Additional Plays: Bryce Harper, Denard Span, Anthony Rendon
Philadelphia
Chase Utley – I’m not crazy about the Phillies offense tonight, but Utley is certainly in play for cash games. He has a very high floor and has been terrific against RH pitching all season long (batting .295 with a .345 wOBA).
Additional Plays: None
Boston at Toronto
| Boston | Toronto | ||||||||
| Clay Buchholz | Vegas Moneyline | J.A. Happ | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TOR (-125) | LEFT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.299 | 0.844 | 0.374 | 15.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.245 | 0.805 | 0.353 | 23.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.281 | 0.760 | 0.331 | 20.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.271 | 0.768 | 0.338 | 17.70% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Clay Buchholz – Once again, I’ve yet to target Buchholz this entire season and that’s not going to change tonight as he heads to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays who are ranked 1st overall vs. RH pitching this season. Buchholz owns a 5.94 ERA this season and is coming off of a rocky start against the Angels in which he gave up 6 earned runs. Buchholz has faced the Blue Jays 4 times this season and has not looked great with an ERA over 7.00. He’s an easy avoid tonight. Rating = 3
Salaries: $6200 FD, $12550 DD, $6200 DK, $NA FF, $14700 SS, $12550 FTD
- J.A. Happ – Happ has pitched better than most people give him credit for, but he’s just too inconsistent to target in anything but GPP’s. He owns a 4.39 ERA (4.22 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.4. Happ is a fly ball pitcher that gives up 1.1 HR’s per 9 innings. While he has pitched well in the Rogers Centre this season, I still don’t like to use pitchers there as it is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in all of baseball. Rating = 4
*Salaries: *
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Yoenis Cespedes – If you read my MLB First Look article, then you know that Cespedes is my pick to homer tonight. He has terrific power against lefties and Happ has already given up 10 HR’s to RH hitters this season. Cespedes has also been swinging a hot bat with 10 hits (5 XBH’s) over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Dustin Pedroia, Mike Napoli
Toronto
Jose Reyes – The Blue Jays are my favorite offense to target tonight. Batters from both sides of the plate are in play against Buchholz who has struggled against both LH and RH hitters this season. Reyes has been swinging a hot bat with 15 hits, 9 runs, and 5 RBI’s over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Jose Bautista, Melky Cabrera, Colby Rasmus, Adam Lind, Dioner Navarro
Oakland at Houston
| Oakland | Houston | ||||||||
| Jeff Samardzija | Vegas Moneyline | Scott Feldman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | OAK (-146) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.702 | 0.308 | 21.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.286 | 0.774 | 0.339 | 12.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.655 | 0.290 | 20.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.276 | 0.775 | 0.342 | 13.80% |
| Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija had another subpar outing in his last start. He gave up 7 earned runs in only 3 and 2/3 innings against the Mets. What worries me the most with the shark is that his strikeouts have been way down since coming over to the American League. He has only struck out more than 6 batters once in his last 10 starts. Maybe a matchup against the strikeout happy Astros will change that. The Astros are ranked 23rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching while striking out at a 23.3% clip (highest in baseball). I still think Liriano is the better play of the two, but I don’t mind the shark tonight. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8100 FD, $17100 DD, $9300 DK, $NA FF, $20800 SS, $17100 FTD
- Scott Feldman – I’ll keep this one pretty short because you don’t need to waste a ton of time on Feldman. He’s an average RH pitcher with a below average K-rate. You typically don’t want to target pitchers with an ERA (4.37) that is almost as high as his K/9 (5.2). He should be avoided tonight against the A’s who are ranked 6th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5900 FD, $9750 DD, $5700 DK, $ FF, $13400 SS, $9750 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
Stephen Vogt – Most of the A’s bats are ice cold right now, but not Vogt’s. Over his last 10 games, he is 11/32 with 4 XBH’s, 5 runs, and 4 RBI’s. He draws a favorable matchup against Feldman who has given up a .339 wOBA to LH hitters this season. His extremely cheap price tag makes him an even more attractive option at catcher.
Additional Plays: Brandon Moss, Josh Reddick
Houston
Jose Altuve – The Astros are a very inconsistent offense, but Altuve is one of their few consistent fantasy options. He’s a high OBP player that is a threat to steal every time he gets on base. I don’t mind the matchup against Samardzija who hasn’t been sharp in his last few starts.
Additional Plays: Dexter Fowler