MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 25th Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-08-25 18:19:35

Miami at LA Angels

Miami					LA Angels
Jarred Cosart		Vegas Moneyline			Wade LeBlanc		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAA (-150)			LEFT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.254	0.696	0.317	15.60%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.254	0.658	0.293	12.90%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs L		Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jarred Cosart – Cosart has looked sharp in his last 2 starts. He’s only given up a combined 1 earned run while striking out 11 batters over 13 innings of work. On the season he owns a 4.14 ERA (4.26 xFIP) with a low K/9 of 5.5. He draws an extremely tough matchup against the Angels tonight who are ranked 12th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. He’s a sizable underdog in a game that features a total of 8.5 runs. He can safely be avoided in all league formats. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6000 FD, $10950 DD, $5700 DK, $NA FF, $15500 SS, $10950 FTD

• Wade LeBlanc – LeBlanc will be making his first start of the season tonight. He was called up from Triple-A to pitch out of the bullpen, but will be thrown to the wolves tonight after the ugly Garrett Richards knee injury. In 7 starts last season, LeBlanc posted a 5.40 ERA with a K/9 of 5.4. He likely won’t pitch too deep into this game and is not a recommended fantasy option tonight . Rating = 3

Salaries: $5000 FD, $8750 DD, $5500 DK, $ FF, $13000 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton – In case you didn’t know, Stanton is pretty good against southpaws. This season he’s batting .372 with a .476 wOBA against lefties. Stanton has also been swinging a hot bat with 16 hits and 11 RBI’s over his last 10 games. Let’s not leave out the fact that he has a terrific matchup against LeBlanc.

Additional Plays: Marcell Ozuna, Casey McGehee, Christian Yelich

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun – Cosart hasn’t been particularly bad against LH hitters this season (.319 wOBA), but Calhoun has been crushing RH pitching all season long. He is batting .298 with a .366 wOBA vs. righties this season.

Additional Plays: Mike Trout, Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick

Milwaukee at San Diego

Milwaukee					San Diego
Kyle Lohse		Vegas Moneyline			Eric Stults		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIL (-120)			LEFT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.247	0.712	0.313	14.90%	SP vs. Left	0.268	0.746	0.327	12.30%
SP vs. Right	0.249	0.676	0.300	19.10%	SP vs. Right	0.273	0.789	0.345	15.50%
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs L		Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Kyle Lohse – This could be a great time to buy low on Lohse. His price has come way down (especially on FD) after a couple of rough outings against the Cardinals and Cubs. I typically don’t like to target pitchers coming off of bad starts, but I’ll make an exception tonight as Lohse gets to face a Padres offense that is ranked 30th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Not only is it a great matchup, but he gets to face them in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in baseball. Expect 7 strong innings with 5+ K’s and hopefully a win from Lohse tonight. Rating = 7

Salaries: $6600 FD, $14700 DD, $8000 DK, $NA FF, $19500 SS, $14700 FTD

• Eric Stults – I don’t like to make a habit of targeting LH pitchers against the Brewers. Their lineup almost exclusively RH bats and they have quite a few players that feast off of LH pitching (Gomez, Braun, Lucroy, Ramirez, and Davis to name a few). Stults has been pitching better recently, but still owns a high 4.53 ERA on the season coupled with a low K/9 of 5.7. There are much better options in his price range tonight (the man pitching opposite him for instance). Rating = 5

Salaries: $6300 FD, $11300 DD, $7500 DK, $ FF, $15700 SS, $11300 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Aramis Ramirez – This is one of the top wOBA matchups of the day. Stults has given up a .345 wOBA to RH hitters this season and Ramirez has been mashing LH pitching to a tune of a .449 wOBA. While the ballpark is not hitter-friendly, the matchup is too good to pass up.

Additional Plays: Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy

San Diego

Will Venable – Venable hit a pinch hit HR yesterday and will likely be batting in the heart of the Padres order tonight. He has a good track record off of Lohse (6/16 with 2 XBH’s) and is a very cheap value play in the OF.

Additional Plays: None

Texas at Seattle

Texas					Seattle
Miles Mikolas		Vegas Moneyline			Roenis Elias		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SEA (-180)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.279	0.795	0.348	12.20%	SP vs. Left	0.204	0.656	0.296	26.00%
SP vs. Right	0.309	0.866	0.378	17.00%	SP vs. Right	0.246	0.727	0.323	20.30%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Miles Mikolas – Mikolas is cheap, but that’s about all he has going for him tonight. On the season he owns a 7.48 ERA with a K/9 of 6.0. He is producing a low ground ball rate of 40.8% and is giving up 1.48 HR’s per 9 innings which is way too high. Tonight he’s facing a Mariners offense that 1. is the 4th best offense over the last 30 days (.320 wOBA) and 2. is full of LH power hitters. He’s a huge underdog tonight for a reason. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5100 FD, $8950 DD, $5500 DK, $NA FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• Roenis Elias – Elias has been a tough pitcher to predict this season. He’s getting a ton of love from Vegas tonight as a -180 favorite in a game that features a low run total. That said, Elias hasn’t even made it to the 6th inning in any of his last 7 starts. He has really struggled with his command during that stretch as he has given up 18 walks. Elias still carries good strikeout potential (7.7 K’s per 9 innings), but I’m not nearly as high on him as Vegas is. The Rangers actually hit lefties pretty well (7th in wOBA this season). Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6700 FD, $12850 DD, $7500 DK, $ FF, $18800 SS, $12850 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Alex Rios – Rios is one of my favorite value plays on the board tonight. He’s extremely cheap on both FD and DK and draws a pretty nice matchup against the lefty Elias. Rios is quietly batting .343 with a .403 wOBA against southpaws this season.

Additional Plays: Adrian Beltre

Seattle

Kyle Seager – As mentioned above, Mikolas has not pitched well this season. Seager is at his best when he is at home (.433) and when he is facing a RH pitcher (.388). He gets both of those tonight against the Rangers.

Additional Plays: Dustin Ackley, Robinson Cano (should be in the lineup, but is dealing with the flu)

Colorado at San Francisco

Colorado					San Francisco
Tyler Matzek		Vegas Moneyline			Jake Peavy		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		SFG (-175)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.224	0.665	0.299	28.00%	SP vs. Left	0.261	0.824	0.360	18.70%
SP vs. Right	0.300	0.866	0.377	12.10%	SP vs. Right	0.274	0.768	0.336	17.90%
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Tyler Matzek – Matzek is in a similar position as Mikolas. He’s struggled this season and is a sizable underdog on the road. Matzek owns a 5.38 ERA (4.36 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.2 this season. While the Giants don’t hit LH pitching all that well, I’m not expecting a great outing from the rookie who has a 6.23 ERA on the road. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5100 FD, $13250 DD, $4500 DK, $NA FF, $13000 SS, $13250 FTD

• Jake Peavy – Peavy is one of those pitchers that always seems to find himself with the bases loaded and no outs. His fantasy output typically relies on whether or not he can pitch himself out of the jams that he always finds himself in. On the season he owns a 4.48 ERA with a K/9 of 7.1. He’s a huge favorite tonight against the Rockies who are ranked 27th in wOBA on the road. He’s in play tonight, especially on sites that heavily factor in the win for starting pitchers. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7000 FD, $13600 DD, $6700 DK, $ FF, $16800 SS, $13600 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Corey Dickerson – The Rockies are a much different offense away from home, but Dickerson has still hit the ball well on the road. He has a .420 wOBA against RH pitching and a .355 wOBA on the road. I like the matchup against Peavy who has struggled with Lh hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Charlie Blackmon

San Francisco

Buster Posey – The catcher position is pretty simple tonight. There’s Buster Posey and then there’s everyone else. Matzek has given up a .377 wOBA to RH hitters this season and Posey has mashed LH pitching his entire career. Target him in all leagues tonight.

Additional Plays: Hunter Pence, Michael Morse

New York Yankees at Kansas City

Pitcher Grind Down

• Michael Pineda – Pineda has pitched well in his first 2 starts since coming back from injury. He has only given up a combined 6 hits and 3 earned runs in those outings. He threw 89 pitches against the Astros and you have to think the Yankees will stretch him out a little further tonight. All that said, I don’t love the matchup against the Royals. Not only do they strike out fewer times than any team in baseball, but they have been the 3rd best team offensively over the last 30 days. Rating = 5

• James Shields – Shields will take the mound for the Royals tonight. On the season he owns a 3.28 ERA with a K/9 of 7.2. He walks very few batters and produces a respectable 45.1% ground ball rate. Shields has really pitched well in the month of August with a 2.18 ERA while holding opponents to a .222 batting average. Shields has struggled a bit with lefties this season, but is in play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

New York Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – Shields has given up a .327 wOBA to LH hitters this season and Ellsbury has always hit RH pitching well. Ellsbury is also swinging a hot bat with 9 hits over his last 6 games.

Additional Plays: Brian McCann, Brett Gardner

Kansas City

Even though the Royals have been hot, there aren’t any plays that really stand out here. Pineda has held both LH and RH hitters under a .265 wOBA this season.

MLB Grind Down Page 2