MLB Grind Down: Monday, October 6th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Washington at San Francisco
| Washington | San Francisco | ||||||||
| Doug Fister | Vegas Moneyline | Madison Bumgarner | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | SFG (-140) | LEFT | 6.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.690 | 0.306 | 15.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.215 | 0.539 | 0.239 | 31.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.618 | 0.273 | 13.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.684 | 0.301 | 23.50% |
| Batter Splits | WSN BvP  | WSN vs L | Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Doug Fister – The Nationals could be the third favorite to get swept in the Divisional Series. While this round has been a little anti-climactic, it’s certainly been exciting, with the Royals, Orioles, and now potentially the Giants all pulling off upsets. Doug Fister takes the mound for the Nationals to try to force a Game 4. Fister has really pitched well this season with a 2.41 ERA, but he does have a much higher xFIP of 3.85. Fister isn’t an elite strikeout pitcher (averaging 5.4 per 9 innings), but he doesn’t walk many batters and he keeps his pitch counts down which allow him to pitch deep into games. He’ll have a tough time seeing run support with Bumgarner on the mound, but he should give the Nats a fighting chance. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8600 FD, $16300 DD, $8600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $17200 FTD
- Madison Bumgarner – Bumgarner is coming off of an incredible start in which he blanked the Pirates in a winner-take-all Wildcard game. Bumgarner struck out 10 batters in a complete game shutout. He’s been locked in since the All-Star Break. He’s posted a 2.29 ERA with a strikeout rate just over 9 per 9 innings. He’s a big game pitcher with a chance to complete the sweep and send the Giants to the NLCS. Even though this Nationals team hit left-handed pitching well this season (8th in wOBA), Bumgarner is not your average left-handed pitcher. He should have another dominant performance tonight. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $10000 FD, $21750 DD, $12000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $22150 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Anthony Rendon – This isn’t an ideal matchup by any stretch of the imagination, but Rendon is the favorite Nationals hitter of the bunch. He has really hit left-handed pitching well this season with a .313 batting average and a .361 wOBA. He’s also had decent success against Madison Bumgarner (small sample-size), going 3/5 with a double.
Additional Plays: Jayson Werth, Ian Desmond
San Francisco
Pablo Sandoval – Pablo is my favorite play on the Giants tonight. He has a favorable matchup against Doug Fister, whom he has hit well in the past (4/5 with a double), he’s one of the more affordable Giants hitters, and he has a good track record in the playoffs (.313 career batting average with a .915 OPS). Pablo and the Giants will look to complete the sweep tonight.
Buster Posey – Statistically, Posey’s postseason numbers don’t match up with his regular season numbers, but he’s been solid this season, going 6/15 with 2 RBIs. He’s had numerous big hits throughout his career and knows the importance of closing out a series when you have the chance. Posey is easily the top catcher on the board.
Additional Plays: Hunter Pence, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford
LA Dodgers at St. Louis
| LA Dodgers | St. Louis | ||||||||
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Vegas Moneyline | John Lackey | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | STL (-112) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.281 | 0.665 | 0.296 | 17.90% | SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.720 | 0.316 | 18.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.656 | 0.290 | 23.30% | SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.744 | 0.327 | 20.80% |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LAD vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Hyun-Jin Ryu – Ryu hasn’t started a game since September 13th. He’s been dealing with shoulder inflammation on his pitching arm. He did throw a simulated game last week (45 pitches), but this is an extremely tall task as he now faces a tough Cardinals lineup in St. Louis in his first start back. Ryu is sporting a 3.38 ERA on the season with a K/9 of 8.2, but he’s a big risk tonight, as he’ll likely be on somewhat of a limited pitch count. Not only that, but the Cardinals offense has come alive over the last couple of months and were ranked 10th in wOBA against left-handed pitching during the regular season. He’s my least favorite starter on the board tonight. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $8500 FD, $18100 DD, $10300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $17600 FTD
- John Lackey – Lackey takes the mound for the Cardinals tonight in a crucial Game 3. On the season Lackey owns a 3.82 ERA with a K/9 of 7.4. He’s been consistently around the 4.00 ERA mark all season long and is a very small favorite in tonight’s game against the Dodgers. The Dodgers have a formidable offense that was ranked 4th in wOBA against right-handed pitching during the regular season. Lackey is a better play than Ryu, but is still a very risky option tonight. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7900 FD, $13050 DD, $8400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $13500 FTD
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
Adrian Gonzalez – Gonzalez seems to come up with big hits more often than your average bear, especially when he is facing a right-handed pitcher. Gonzalez has mashed righties with a .301 batting average and a .384 wOBA this season. He’s easily the top target at 1B tonight.
Carl Crawford – Crawford has quietly had a solid second half of the season. During that stretch he has hit for a .333 batting average with a .364 wOBA. In addition to swinging a hot bat, Crawford has had John Lackey’s number throughout his career and the sample size is anything but small. Crawford is 23/48 with 6 extra base hits against Lackey.
Additional Plays: Dee Gordon, Yasiel Puig, Hanley Ramirez
St. Louis
Matt Holliday – As mentioned above, Ryu will be making his first start in over three weeks. Rust could certainly be an issue here and with the WAS/SF game expected to be low-scoring, it may be a good time to heavily target the Cardinals offense. Holliday has mashed left-handed pitching with a .301 batting average and a .435 wOBA this season. Holliday is your top OF play of the night.
Jhonny Peralta – Much like Holliday, Peralta has been known as a left-masher throughout his career and this season is no different. Peralta has a .384 wOBA with 16 of his 30 hits against lefties going for extra bases. He draws a favorable matchup against Ryu and should have some opportunities to drive in runs.
Additional Plays: Jhonny Peralta, Matt Carpenter, Randal Grichuk
Positional Rankings (Salary Excluded)
Pitcher
M. Bumgarner
D. Fister
J. Lackey
Catcher
B. Posey
Y. Molina
W. Ramos
First Base
A. Gonzalez
B. Belt
M. Adams
Second Base
D. Gordon
A. Cabrera
J. Panik
Third Base
P. Sandoval
A. Rendon
M. Carpenter
Shortstop
J. Peralta
H. Ramirez
I. Desmond
Outfield
M. Holliday
M. Kemp
H. Pence
Y. Puig
C. Crawford