MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 11th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-04-13 19:14:37

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice, but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any fantasy point average listed uses FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.

Boston at NY Yankees

Pitcher Grind Down

Joe Kelly – Joe Kelly is getting placed straight into the rotation off an injury to his bicep that kept him on the DL for the first few days of the season. Surprisingly, the trade to the AL gave Kelly a bump to his early season 7.32 ERA and was good enough for the Red Sox to make the backend of the rotation. Kelly is not going to make the spot start in the minors that the Red Sox had originally planned and they had previously said he wouldn’t go farther than 95 pitches in his tune-up. With that said, this limits his fantasy potential a bit this afternoon. Rating = 4

Adam Warren – Adam Warren takes the mound for the first time this year for the Yankees today. Most likely a bullpen guy when the Yankees starting rotation gets fully healthy, Warren is coming off a great 2014 campaign. He had a 2.97 ERA and backed it up with a 2.89 FIP and 3.28 xFIP. He does however, have a difficult matchup against the Red Sox this afternoon. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Hanley Ramirez (FD: $4100, DK: $5800)

BA: 0.283 / wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.165
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.371 / ISO: 0.194

Analysis: Warren pitched well last year, but Hanley has started off the season hot and seems like just what the Red Sox wanted when they got him. Hanley has always mashed both righties and lefties and has a career .371 wOBA against RH pitching in his career.

Secondary Plays:

David Ortiz (FD: $3700, DK: $5400) vs RH pitching wOBA: .421/ ISO: 303

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury (FD: $4100, DK: $5500)

BA: 0.271 / wOBA: 0.327 / ISO: 0.148
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 / ISO: 0.137

Analysis: Ellsbury is in a decent spot this afternoon as he can do so many things in this Yankees lineup if he can get going. He had a bit of down year against righties, but has a career wOBA of .347 against RH pitching. I expect the Yankees to get a few runs across the board today and it should start with Ellsbury.

Secondary Plays:

Mark Teixeira (FD: $3400, DK: $4900) vs. RH pitching wOBA: 320/ISO: .199

Brett Gardner (FD: $3400, DK: $5200) vs RH pitching wOBA: 340/ISO: .197

St. Louis at Cincinnati

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Wacha – Michael Wacha takes the mound on Saturday and looks to rebound from an injury plagued last year. In only 19 starts in 2014, Wacha held a 3.71 xFIP and a decent 7.91 K/9. The strikeouts were a bit down from his stellar 2013 season and could see a bump this year if he stays healthy. Wacha draws a good matchup against a Reds team he has pitched well against in 5 career starts and makes a decent option for the afternoon slate. Rating = 8

Johnny Cueto – Johnny Cueto picked up right where he left off as he shut out the Pirates going seven strong innings with ten strikeouts and only four hits against. The numbers continue to be stellar for Cueto as last year he put up a 3.21 xFIP with a very nice 8.94 K/9. Like Wacha, Cueto has also pitched very well against his opponent today holding a 2..53 ERA over the last three season against the Cardinals. He is an elite afternoon option today. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

No elite plays.

Secondary Plays:

None

Cincinnati

No elite plays.

Secondary Plays:

Joey Votto (FD: $3800, DK: $4600) vs RH pitching wOBA: .473/ISO: .233

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Pelfrey – Mike Pelfrey is going to be starting due to the absence of Ervin Santana and the Twins are probably not extremely happy about having to use him in this spot. Last year, he had a putrid 7.99 ERA in only five starts with a 6.55 xFIP. His 2013 numbers were not a whole lot better, so it is going to take some sort of huge rejuvenation in order for him to have any fantasy relevance this year. Pelfrey can be easily avoided this afternoon. Rating = 3

Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija’s first start was not exactly what the White Sox were hoping for when they signed him for this year as he gave up five earned runs in six innings, while only striking out one batter. He will look to bounce back in a great matchup against the Twins this afternoon, as they are a slightly better offense this year, but did have the eighth-highest K rate last year at 21.3%. I fully expect Samardzija to improve after his first start and go out and get a victory today. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

No elite plays.

Secondary Plays:

Kennys Vargas (FD: $2500, DK: $4100) vs RH pitching wOBA: .384/ISO: .250

Joe Mauer (FD: $3200, DK: $4100) vs RH pitching wOBA: .393/.168

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu (FD: $4400, DK: $5700)

BA: 0.317 / wOBA: 0.411 / ISO: 0.264
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.396 / ISO: 0.255

Analysis: Pelfrey is a good pitcher to target this afternoon and it starts with the White Sox stud in Abreu. Abreu crushed RH pitching to a .396 wOBA last year and this is a prime matchup against Pelfrey who had a .500+ wOBA last year to righties. Abreu has big game potential today.

Secondary Plays:

Adam Eaton (FD: $2800, DK: $4600) vs RH pitching wOBA: .324/ISO: 121

Melky Cabrera (FD: $2800, DK: $5000) vs RH pitching wOBA: .331/ISO: .128

Avisail Garcia (FD: $3400, DK: $4400) vs RH pitching wOBA: 308/ISO: .121

Conor Gillaspie (FD: $2300, DK: $4200) vs RH pitching wOBA: 352/ISO: .144

Seattle at Oakland

Pitcher Grind Down

J.A. Happ – Happ was a pitcher a lot of daily fantasy players would target last year, as he had to pitch in Toronto against a lot of good offenses. He has now been traded into a much better pitcher situation in Seattle and should look to improve his numbers compared to the last few years. Last year, his xFIP was at 3.95 and he has shown strikeout potential in the past as he did have a 7.58 K/9. He is not the greatest option, but for a cheap second starter, Happ could make a longshot GPP play. Rating = 5

Sonny Gray – Sonny Gray had a stellar first outing for the A’s as he went eight strong innings and only allowed one hit and one walk while striking out three batters. He took a no-hit bid into the eighth inning on opening night and will look to have the same type of outing this afternoon. I would like to see Gray strikeout a few more batters, but does have a bit of a tougher matchup against the lefty heavy Mariners squad. This shouldn’t be too worrisome to Gray as he had a wOBA of .289 to LH bats last year and should have another strong start today. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

No elite plays.

Secondary Plays:

Robinson Cano (FD: $4200, DK: $4200) vs RH pitching wOBA: .380/ISO: .209

Oakland

Ben Zobrist (FD: $3000, DK: $4100)

BA: 0.264 / wOBA: 0.343 / ISO: 0.165
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.353 / ISO: 0.161

Analysis: Zobrist has hit much better against LH pitching in his career and gets a great matchup against Happ today who allowed a wOBA of .327 to righties last year. Zobrist is getting to hit in the three spot for the A’s early in the season and should see some RBI opportunities today.

Secondary Plays:

Billy Butler (FD: $3100, DK: $3700) vs LH pitching wOBA: .388/ISO: .204

Brett Lawrie (FD: $2800, DK: $3900) vs LH pitching wOBA: .316/ISO: .167

Tampa Bay at Miami

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Archer – Archer had a difficult first start to the year as he allowed two homeruns and three total earned runs in 5.2 innings to the Orioles. Archer has high potential as he had a 8 K/9 last year and a decent 3.70 xFIP. Archer should be able to bounce back against this Miami squad who has struggled at the plate in the early part of the season. He makes a decent second starter today. Rating = 6

Jarred Cosart – Cosart has made his way to sunny Miami after spending the last few seasons as a member of the Astros. Cosart does not offer a whole lot in the realm of daily fantasy value as his sub six K/9 rate from the last two seasons is poor and his 3.64 BB/9 shows a lack of command that could lead him into trouble spots. He does however keep the ball in the ballpark and I could see him going about six innings of one or two run ball. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

No elite plays.

Secondary Plays:

Evan Longoria (FD: $4000, DK: $4500) vs RH pitching wOBA: .353/ISO: .213

Asdrubal Cabrera (FD: $2600, DK: $4100) vs RH pitching wOBA: .324/ISO: .142

Miami

No elite plays.

Secondary Plays:

Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $4700, DK: $5000) vs RH pitching wOBA: .376/ISO: .258

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2